ESPN's Bill Connelly breaks down top of the SEC using his SP+ metrics

One of the most enlightening bits of analytics each year comes from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, who created the SP+ as a way of quantifying several different elements that go into team-building and eventually success on the field in the fall.

The latest edition for the 2024 SP+ rankings will be unveiled on ESPN on Wednesday, but Connelly joined the Paul Finebaum Show to discuss them early on Tuesday evening.

“Georgia, when my SP+ projections come out tomorrow, Georgia is going to be a distant No. 1 in the country, about four points ahead of Ohio State in second place,” Connelly said. “I guess that’s another spoiler. But after that you’re looking at Texas as about No. 4 or so.”

Those two teams will be the SP+ favorites from the SEC to reach the College Football Playoff and contend for a national title. Neither should come as much surprise.

Both teams return a quality starting quarterback — Carson Beck for Georgia and Quinn Ewers for Texas — while a host of other elite talent is back on both sides of the ball.

Who, though, checks in after those two?

“It makes perfect sense that Georgia is one and Texas is two,” Connelly explained. “But after that you really could make a case for many, many different teams for that No. 3 spot, including Texas A&M if you think that a first-year coach can kind of get that whole situation wrangled in a way that Jimbo Fisher couldn’t.”

A&M won’t be the highest-rated SEC team in the SP+ after Georgia and Texas, but the Aggies are in the vicinity where you could see a potential playoff push.

A handful of other teams are probably a little closer to that, though.

“You’re going to look at Alabama and Ole Miss in the top 10, Missouri/LSU, those teams are going to be close,” Connelly said. “I think the most interesting thing to me is we kind of the pecking order at the top.”

Already that is five teams vying for recognition outside of Georgia and Texas. There’s another, too, that hasn’t been mentioned yet that could be if one thing happens.

“Tennessee, if the blue-chip quarterback steps up,” Connelly said. “There are going to be a lot of SEC teams in that top 15. And after those first two I don’t really know who I would personally vote for for No. 3.”

That should make for a thoroughly entertaining conference race next fall, at least if the SP+ ends up being fairly accurate.