ESPN predicts win-loss record for every Big Ten Football team in 2025

ESPN predicted the win-loss record for every Big Ten football ahead of the 2025 college football season. The network used its FPI metrics to determine the win-loss record.

The usual suspects are near the top of the Big Ten of course. But other than the big three this year, the conference could get random and maybe have some surprises!

Without further ado, let’s dive into ESPN’s FPI metrics to predict the win-loss record for every Big Ten team. We start with the defending national champions.

Ohio State: 10-2

Ohio State has a 10.4 projection from ESPN’s FPI, which puts them at the top of the Big Ten. The biggest games of the year happen to be in Week 1 and then in November.

Could they go undefeated? Sure. But Texas and Penn Sate are certainly the toughest games on the schedule. Also Michigan because well, they’ve lost four in a row to the Wolverines. But the Buckeyes could be the favorite every week.

Penn State: 10-2

Penn State is only slightly behind Ohio State in the Big Ten with 10.2 projected wins per the FPI. The Buckeyes routinely have the Nittany Lions’ number so that could be a factor as well.

Penn State has to host Oregon and go to Ohio State this year. Not only that, there’s a tricky road game against Iowa so there are some landmines on this 2025 schedule.

Oregon: 10-2

Oregon is projected right at 10 wins, but at 2.4 losses compared to 2.2 for Penn State. After winning the Big Ten last year, it’ll be hard for the Ducks to repeat.

Make no mistake, they’re a contender for the conference and College Football Playoff. But they have to go to Penn State and Iowa. Some tricky spots, but Dan Lanning’s crew could be just as good.

Michigan: 8-4

Michigan is the first Big Ten team on this list that is not projected to get double digit wins. ESPN’s FPI is 8.4 projected wins, just ahead of USC.

The Wolverines have to go to Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC and rival Michigan State. Undefeated season? Good luck. The good news is Michigan does host Ohio State this season, looking for five wins in a row.

USC: 8-4

The pressure index on Lincoln Riley has to be high at this point right? He has to deliver on the investment. Good luck in this year’s Big Ten. However, the Trojans have the fifth best win-loss record projection in ESPN’s FPI.

USC has to go to Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon for difficult road trips. Michigan also comes to town in a toss up game.

Nebraska: 7-5

Matt Rhule can have Nebraska take the next step with a solid season. But ESPN’s FPI has the Huskers at 7.5 projected wins, not quite Big Ten championship material.

They have to host Michigan and hit the road against Penn State, among some other tough games. Heck, Iowa is still in that final week! But after an expected 3-0 start against non-conference opponents, perhaps Nebraska can surprise some people.

Indiana: 7-5

The Hoosiers are bound for a step back based on ESPN’s FPI projections. After nearly getting to the Big Ten Championship last year, Indiana is projected at 7.5 wins, the same as Nebraska.

They have to go to Iowa and Oregon in back to back games. Not to mention Maryland and Penn State both on the road. Sure, they’ll likely be favored over the Terrapins, but the schedule doesn’t do Indiana any favors. Oh yeah, Illinois comes to town too, although ESPN isn’t as high on them this year.

Washington: 7-5

Washington’s 7-5 record is a little less stabilized in ESPN’s FPI with 7.1 projected wins. They’ll be a middle of the pack Big Ten team per the metric.

They’ll have to play rival Washington State on the road, host Ohio State, go to Michigan, host Illinois and host Oregon. There are some tough opponents on this schedule. Heck, even Rutgers might give them fits after the Huskies lost in Piscataway last season.

Minnesota: 6-6

Minnesota is still bowl eligible based on the projected wins, coming in at 6.9. But it’s not quite seven wins, although that’s possible.

PJ Fleck and crew had to go to Cal for a non-conference game, so it’s a long trip. Plus, the Gophers go to Ohio State, Iowa and Oregon. The team should be competitive as usual, but it’ll be a difficult schedule in the Big Ten.

Illinois: 6-6

Illinois won 10 games last year, including the Citrus Bowl. Now, ESPN’s FPI only has them in the six-win range, which could be seven.

At 6.8 projected wins, it’s doable. The Illini have road games at Indiana, Washington and Wisconsin, but the schedule doesn’t seem too difficult. USC and Ohio State have to come to Bloomington, as well as Rutgers. Maybe eight or more wins are on the docket.

Iowa: 6-6

The Hawkeyes have a projected win total of 6.2 per the ESPN FPI. This a model Big Ten program in terms of competitive consistency, but that might be all that’s possible this year.

Iowa has to head to Rutgers, Wisconsin, USC and Nebraska this year. Not only that, Penn State and Oregon are coming to town!

Maryland: 5-7

Maryland is on the cusp of six wins, in terms of the projection, as ESPN’s FPI has them at 5.9. The Terrapins aren’t projected to do a ton in the Big Ten this year, but there’s always some surprises.

Mike Locksley and crew have to go to Wisconsin, Rutgers and Illinois, so the road trips aren’t insanely difficult. But, Nebraska, Indiana and Michigan come to town. Perhaps this team might be better off than the projections say throughout the Big Ten.

Rutgers: 5-7

Rutgers practicality underachieved last year at 7-6, missing out on a few one-score games. The schedule sets up for a successful first half, maybe 5-1 or 6-0 if there’s some luck involved.

But this is the Big Ten and ESPN’s FPI struggles to find six automatic wins. The back half of the shield includes Oregon and Penn State at home, as well as road games with Illinois and Ohio State.

Wisconsin: 5-7

Wisconsin is slightly behind Rutgers with 5.8 projected wins, compared to 5.9 for the Scarlet Knights. The Badgers should get off to a good start but have to go to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama after getting waxed last year.

Wisconsin also has Big Ten opponents including Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon, with the Wolverines and Ducks being the host schools this year. It doesn’t get any easier for Luke Fickell in 2025.

UCLA: 5-7

Year 2 for DeShaun Foster is going to be tough with some of these teams on the schedule. At 5.4 projected wins, a bowl game might be more out of reach compared to a couple of other Big Ten teams.

UCLA hosts Utah to open the season and then will see conference games at home vs. Penn State, Nebraska and Washington at some point. Not only that, they have to go to Ohio State and rival USC.

Michigan State: 5-7

Michigan State could see improvements in Year 2 with Jonathan Smith at the helm. But ESPN’s FPI has them at 5.2 projected wins.

The Big Ten schedule is difficult with road games at USC, Nebraska and Iowa, to name a few. The Spartans get to host rival Michigan though, which could help in the second half of the season.

Northwestern: 4-8

David Braun pushed all of the right buttons in 2023 following a quick takeover for Pat Fitzgerald. Last year didn’t breed the same success though.

As far as ESPN’s FPI is concerned, the Wildcats are barely above four wins at 4.1 in their projection. The Wildcats have Big Ten road games at Penn State, Nebraska, USC and Illinois, mostly in the second half of the season.

Purdue: 3-9

Purdue will have the biggest rebuilding job in the Big Ten as Barry Odom tries to resurrect the Boilermakers. The FPI only has them at 3.2 projected wins, so this could be disastrous.

Purdue has to go to Notre Dame, Michigan and Washington, to name a few. They also have to host Ohio State, Rutgers, Illinois and USC and that’s not even including rival Indiana on November 28th!