ESPN ranks SEC Football teams from first to last after Week 10

As the 2025 college football calendar formally turns the page to November, Power Four conference races are heating up down the stretch of the regular season. That’s especially true in the SEC, where there are still five teams in the mix to make the conference championship game in Atlanta next month.

The ESPN Football Power Index’s latest update continues to favor five SEC powers — Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M and Ole Miss — ahead of the Week 11 slate. That includes its SEC-leading Crimson Tide (7-1, 5-0 SEC), which have bounced back nicely from its season-opening loss at Florida State to stay undefeated in league play through 10 weeks.

ESPN’s FPI is a measure of a team’s strength as the best predictor of a team’s potential performance moving forward through the rest of the regular season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

With that in mind, here’s how ESPN’s FPI ranked the SEC’s 16 teams through the first ten weeks of the regular season:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1, 5-0 SEC) — 22.6 points

The Crimson Tide may have opened as the No. 4 team in the initial College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings released Tuesday night, but they remain the SEC’s No. 1 according to ESPN’s FPI due in large part to its league-best 54.1-percent chance to win the conference title this season.

And despite facing an always-challenge November slate that includes rivalry games vs. LSU on Saturday and at Auburn to end the regular season, Alabama also has the SEC’s best chances to make both the Playoffs (93-percent) and the national title game (24.0), and ultimately win it all (11.6).

2. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1, 5-1) — 20.6

It certainly wasn’t pretty, but Georgia’s Cardiac ‘Dawgs managed to win their fourth straight with Saturday’s 24-20 victory over rival Florida in Jacksonville, even if it required another fourth-quarter comeback drive from Gunner Stockton to get it done.

Give its head-to-head loss in Week 5, Georgia slots in right behind Alabama in the latest FPI rankings due to having the league’s second-best chances of winning the conference (16.6-percent), and third-best chances of making the Playoffs (85.1) and making the national title game (15.3).

3. Texas Longhorns (7-2, 4-1) — 19.8

The 11th-ranked Longhorns continue to slot just ahead of the rival Aggies in the latest FPI rankings despite its multiple losses, including once in SEC play, because ESPN’s analytics give Texas a better chance of winning out (11.4-percent), suggesting it projects a ‘Horns victory over A&M to end the regular season.

It’s because of that slate, which includes a road game at No. 5 Georgia in two weeks, that ESPN’s FPI still gives a two-loss Texas the league’s fourth-best chances (7.7-percent) to win the SEC outright, but the fifth-best chances of making the Playoff (50.6)

4. Texas A&M Aggies (8-0, 5-0) — 19.5

Despite still being the SEC’s only undefeated team 10 weeks into the regular season, the third-ranked Aggies land at No. 4 in the FPI’s latest due to its difficult November schedule that includes ranked road games at both No. 22 Missouri and No. 11 Texas to end the regular season.

That road ahead is why ESPN’s FPI gives Texas A&M a dismal 9-percent chance of winning its remaining games, even though the Aggies also have the league’s second-best chances of both making the Playoffs (92.7-percent) and making the national title game (17.6).

5. Ole Miss Rebels (8-1, 5-1) — 17.8

The Rebels round out the FPI’s Top 5 in the SEC due to having the league’s best chances of winning out (43.9-percent) vs. a November slate against The Citadel, Florida and rival Mississippi State in the annual Egg Bowl to end the regular season.

Due to its head-to-head loss to Georgia last month, the FPI isn’t as high on No. 6 Ole Miss’ chances of winning the SEC (6.0-percent) this season, but still expect the Rebels will be Playoffs-bound with the league’s fourth-best odds (77.7) of both making the 12-team field and the national title game (8.6).

6. Tennessee Volunteers (6-3, 3-3) — 16.0

With three conference losses already following last weekend’s 33-27 home loss to then-No. 18 Oklahoma, the Vols are a distant sixth in ESPN’s latest FPI ranking due to having the SEC’s second-best chances (33.8-percent) of winning out against New Mexico State, Florida and No. 16 Vanderbilt.

That said, the Sooners loss on Saturday effectively ended any sliver of hope Tennessee had at returning to the College Football Playoffs with a dismal 2.1-percent chance of making the 12-team field for a second-straight year.

7. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2, 3-2) — 15.9

Fresh off last weekend’s road win over Tennessee, the Sooners opened at No. 12 in the initial CFP Top 25 rankings release Tuesday night, and now has the SEC’s sixth-best chances of making the 12-team Playoff field at 32.1-percent should the league get six bids.

That said, ESPN’s analytics are only giving Oklahoma a meager 9.6-percent chance of wining its remaining three conference games beginning with next week’s road game at No. 4 Alabama before closing out the regular season with home games vs. No. 22 Missouri and LSU.

8. Vanderbilt Commodores (7-2, 3-2) — 15.7

Once considered the league darling after a strong start to the season, the Commodores’ Playoff chances also took a nosedive following their Week 10 loss at then-No. 20 Texas, 34-31, in Austin. It was Vanderbilt’s second loss in a difficult four-game stretch against Top 20-ranked SEC opponents.

Thankfully, the road gets easier following this weekend’s bye with ESPN’s FPI giving the ‘Dores the league’s fourth-best chance (24.9-percent) of winning out in upcoming home games against league cellar-dwellers Auburn and Kentucky before ending the season on the road vs. rival Tennessee.

9. Missouri Tigers (6-2, 2-2) — 14.9

After opening the season with five straight wins, No. 22 Mizzou has hit a wall with back-to-back SEC losses to Top 10-ranked Alabama and Vanderbilt before entering last weekend’s final bye of the regular season.

Those losses, when coupled with upcoming games against No. 3 Texas A&M (on Saturday) and a road game at No. 12 Oklahoma in two weeks, the FPI’s analytics paint a dismal picture down for Mizzou down the stretch with just a 8.4-percent chance of winning out.

10. LSU Tigers (5-3, 2-3) — 13.1

Rounding out the FPI’s Top 10 is one of four SEC programs that have already fired its head football coach after the Tigers parted ways with Brian Kelly two weeks ago following a 49-25 home drubbing at the hands of No. 3 Texas A&M, its third league loss in its last four games.

Given those struggles, ESPN’s analytics are actually giving LSU a 99.2-percent of winning one of its final four games and achieving bowl eligibility vs. a November slate that includes No. 4 Alabama on Saturday before closing out the regular season vs. Arkansas, Western Kentucky, and at No. 12 Oklahoma.

11. Florida Gators (3-5, 2-3) — 10.7
12. Auburn Tigers (4-5, 1-5) — 10.5
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (3-6, 1-6) — 8.0
14. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-4, 1-4) — 7.9
15. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-7, 0-5) — 7.8
16. Kentucky Wildcats (3-5, 1-5) — 5.4