ESPN ranks SEC Football teams from first to last after Week 12

With just two weeks left in the 2025 regular season, Power Four conference races are nearing their climax as contenders continue to battle it out for a chance to compete in their league championship game in three weeks. It’s especially intense in the SEC, where four teams are still in the mix to make it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.

The ESPN Football Power Index’s latest update continues to favor three of those SEC contenders — No. 10 Alabama, No. 4 Georgia, and No. 3 Texas A&M — over the rest of the field ahead of the Week 13 slate. ESPN’s FPI is a measure of a team’s strength as the best predictor of a team’s potential performance moving forward through the rest of the regular season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

With that in mind, here’s how ESPN’s FPI ranked the SEC’s 16 teams through the first 12 weeks of the regular season:

1. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1, 7-1 SEC) — 22.8

The SEC has a new leader in the clubhouse after the Bulldogs overtook Alabama for the top spot in FPI’s updated ranking following Week 12’s shakeup that saw Georgia dominate No. 10 Texas in Athens and the Crimson Tide losing to Oklahoma in Tuscaloosa.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs the SEC’s best chance to not only make the College Football Playoff national championship (26.9%) but win it (13.6%), with undefeated Texas A&M just behind in both. Georgia is also among three SEC teams with a greater-than-80% chance to make the Playoffs (98.8%).

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2, 6-1 SEC) — 21.6

Despite sliding six spots in the latest CFP Top 25, the two-loss Crimson Tide dropped just one spot in the FPI and are still viewed quite favorably by ESPN’s analytics, which still gives Alabama the best chance to win the SEC at 36.6%, just ahead of Georgia’s 34.4.

That said, the FPI dropped the Tide’s chances of reaching the Playoffs to 62.9% and just a 7.9% chance of making the national championship game, both of which rank fourth in the SEC, following Saturday’s surprising home loss to Oklahoma.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (10-0, 7-0 SEC) — 19.6

As one of just three undefeated teams remaining in college football, and the only in the SEC, the Aggies are still facing disrespect from FPI’s analytics. That included giving Texas A&M the league’s 10th-best chances (25.6%) of winning out with a Nov. 28 road game at rival Texas still ahead.

Beyond that, though, the Aggies still rank in the Top 3 in the SEC in multiple categories, including leading the way with a 99.5% chance to make the Playoffs, ranking second to both make the national title game (17.9%) and win it (7.2%), and having the third-best chances at winning the SEC (26.4%).

4. Texas Longhorns (7-3, 4-2 SEC) — 18.2

The Longhorns, meanwhile, held steady in fourth place in the FPI ranking despite being run out of Athens following Saturday’s 35-10 loss to Georgia, which mathematically eliminated Texas from being able to make the SEC Championship Game next month.

Atlanta aside, ESPN’s analytics still gives the Longhorns a 42.5% chance to win out — suggesting odds favor them beating No. 3 Texas A&M in the regular-season finale — as well as a slight 7.1% to make the College Football Playoffs, which represents the SEC’s seventh-best chances.

5. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1, 6-1 SEC) — 18.0

While Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin keeps fans all over the SEC wondering what’s next for him, ESPN’s FPI reveals several reasons to favor Ole Miss, especially given its league-leading 71.0% chance to win out and the conference’s third-best chances (84.4%) of making the Playoffs.

On the flip side, given an earlier loss to Georgia, the Rebels need absolute chaos to unfold in order to make it to Atlanta with just a 2.6% chance to make the SEC title game. Though a weekend off might prove beneficial given Ole Miss’ 9.0% chance of making the national title game, behind only Georgia and A&M.

6. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2, 4-2 SEC) — 16.7

Following Saturday’s 23-21 win in Tuscaloosa, the Sooners skyrocketed up the latest CFP Top 25 rankings to No. 8, further helping Oklahoma’s chances of backing into the Playoffs at 53.4%, which would rank as the league’s fifth-best odds.

Those odds are boosted by the Sooners’ 45.2% chances to win out at home in their final two games against No. 22 Missouri and LSU. A win Saturday against the Tigers would be Oklahoma’s third-consecutive Top 25 victory, further strengthening its Playoff resume.

7. Tennessee Volunteers (7-3, 3-3 SEC) — 15.9

ESPN’s FPI ranking drops considerably for the SEC’s bottom 10 programs, beginning with the Vols, which have just a 38.4% chance to win out and a meager 0.7% chance at making the Playoff field.

While the Playoffs might be out of the question following its home loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago, Tennessee can still secure one of the top non-Playoff bowls while also spoiling the Playoff chances of in-state rival Vanderbilt in the regular-season finale Nov. 29.

8. Vanderbilt Commodores (8-2, 4-2 SEC) — 15.1

The upstart Commodores continue to threaten to crash the College Football Playoffs in what is shaping out to be No. 14 Vanderbilt’s best season in more than a decade. Even ESPN’s FPI gives the ‘Dores a 17.7% chance of making the Playoffs for the league’s sixth-best odds entering Week 13.

And while it’s unlikely the SEC were to receive six Playoff bids, chaos could reign in the other Power Four conferences and pave the way for Vanderbilt to make the 12-team field, especially if it can knock off rival Tennessee in Knoxville for a second Top 25 win.

9. Missouri Tigers (7-3, 3-3 SEC) — 14.2

The 22nd-ranked Tigers rebounded from back-to-back Top 10 losses to Vanderbilt and Texas A&M to rout Mississippi State, 49-27, last Saturday. And while a Playoff spot is out of the question, Missouri still has a chance to impact the number of SEC teams in the field.

That begins with this Saturday’s road game against No. 8 Oklahoma, whose own revived Playoff hopes following last weekend’s road win over Alabama would likely be doomed with a home loss to the Tigers.

10. LSU Tigers (6-4, 3-4 SEC) — 12.4

Amid what has been a disappointing season for the Bayou Bengals, LSU fans are more focused on who will replace the fired Brian Kelly as the Tigers next head coach than anything happening on the field at the moment.

Still, interim LSU coach Frank Wilson has things moving in the right direction after ending the Tigers’ three game losing streak — during which Kelly was fired — with last Saturday’s 23-22 victory over Arkansas. Can LSU do it again in two weeks against Oklahoma?

Rest of the SEC in the FPI

11. Auburn Tigers (4-6, 1-6 SEC) — 11.1
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (3-7, 1-7 SEC) — 9.2
13. Kentucky Wildcats (5-5, 2-5 SEC) — 8.7
14. Florida Gators (3-7, 2-5 SEC) — 8.6
15. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-8, 0-6 SEC) — 7.7
16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6, 1-6 SEC) — 5.7