ESPN ranks Top 20 teams with highest chance to make College Football Playoff after Week 5

by: Grant Grubbs4 hours agogrant_grubbs_

college-football-playoff-director-rich-clark-talks-smu-making-the-field-expansion-strength-of-schedule — Dec 29, 2022; Atlanta, GA, USA; The College Football Playoff trophy inside the College Football Hall of Fame during media day for the Peach Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch

Every team in America dreams of earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. However, only 12 of those teams’ dreams will come true in the 2025 campaign. After a wild Week 5 slate of college football games, ESPN revealed its rankings for the 20 most-likely teams to make the CFP.

While a team’s résumé to this point is obviously important, ESPN also took into account the team’s remaining strength of schedule. As a refresher, the five conference champions ranked highest in the CFP rankings will receive automatic bids. The other seven slots be determined in a straight-seeding style based on the CFP rankings.

With nine weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty will change before the CFP begins. However, here’s who ESPN foresees securing a spot in the 12-team playoff as of today.

1. Oregon Ducks | 87% chance

After Oregon faces off against Indiana in Week 7, it won’t face another team in the regular season that’s currently ranked in the AP Top 25. The Ducks had a relatively easy start to their season, but proved their worth on Saturday with a 30-24 win over Penn State in front of a rowdy White Out crowd.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore continued to look like a Heisman Trophy candidate. He completed 29-of-his-39 pass attempts for 248 yards and three touchdowns, without throwing an interception.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes | 87% chance

Kayden McDonald-Ohio State-Ohio State football-Buckeyes — (© Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Ohio State technically landed behind Oregon in ESPN’s rankings, but it’s just as likely to appear in the CFP as the Ducks. On Saturday, Ohio State impressed in its first Big Ten showdown of the season with a convincing 24-6 triumph over Washington.

As usual, OSU wide receiver Jeremiah Smith was spectacular, racking up a game-high eight catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. The Buckeyes defense did its part as well. Washington managed to record just 61 rushing yards against Ohio State’s suffocating defense.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide | 69% chance

Alabama is sitting pretty following its 24-21 over Georgia on the road this past weekend. It was a statement win for the Crimson Tide, who many fans doubted after their season-opening loss to Florida State.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson was excellent in the win, notching 276 passing yards and two scores, while throwing no interceptions. While the Crimson Tide still have a difficult path ahead, ESPN is confident Alabama hear its name called on Selection Sunday.

4. Indiana Hoosiers | 68% chance

It appears Indiana’s CFP appearance last season wasn’t a fluke. The Hoosiers are buzzing again, and only picked up steam in Week 5 with a hard-fought 20-15 win over Iowa.

While the Hoosiers will undoubtedly welcome the win with open arms, it wasn’t quite the masterpiece performance they put on in Week 4 against Illinois. Indiana shocked fans across the country, routing Illinois in emphatic 63-10 fashion.

5. Ole Miss Rebels | 68% chance

Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is never short on supply of jokes, and he had plenty after a 24-19 win against No. 4 LSU on Saturday. — Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

After multiple years of finishing on the cusp of a CFP appearance, Ole Miss might finally break through this season. On Saturday, the Rebels picked up their biggest win yet, defeating LSU 24-19.

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss tallied 314 passing yards and a touchdown in the win. It’s his third consecutive game with 300 or more passing yards, since taking over for an injured Austin Simmons in Week 3.

6. Miami Hurricanes | 67% chance

Miami is ESPN’s choice from the ACC to land a CFP bid. It’s difficult to argue with the selection. Miami has shown essentially no weaknesses this season, while its ACC counterparts such as Florida State and Clemson have already had lackluster outings.

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Miami had a bye this weekend, but strolled to a 26-7 win over in-state rival Florida in Week 4. In the triumph, Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr. stole the show. Fletcher tallied 116 yards and a touchdown in the victory.

7. Georgia Bulldogs | 57% chance

Georgia suffered its first setback of the season on Saturday, but its year is far from over. The Bulldogs are still more likely than not to reach the CFP in ESPN’s eyes. After all, Georgia showed promising flashes even in its loss to Alabama.

For example, the Bulldogs run game continued to look like one of the best in college football. Georgia finished the game with 227 rushing yards. Bulldogs RB Chauncey Bowens particularly had a strong showing, notching a game-high 119 rushing yards and a TD.

8. Texas A&M Aggies | 56% chance

Texas A&M WRs Mario Craver KC Concepcion vs. Notre Dame — (Mike Miller, Blue & Gold)

Despite being 4-0, ESPN believes Texas A&M still only has the fourth-best odds of all SEC teams to make the CFP. In fairness, the Aggies have four currently-ranked teams ahead on their schedule. Yet, it’s impossible to deny Texas A&M has looked stellar this season, thus far.

Most recently, Texas A&M defeated Auburn 16-10 to improve to 4-0 for the first time since 2016. Texas A&M’s defense outshined any individual performance. The Aggies held Auburn to just nine first downs in the win. Moreover, Auburn didn’t succeed on a single one of its 13 third-down conversion attempts.

9. Texas Longhorns | 51% chance

Texas A&M isn’t the only team from the Lone Star State that could be vying for a CFP bid later this year. The Longhorns have won three consecutive games since falling to Ohio State in their season-opener.

While quarterback Arch Manning still isn’t playing like a future No. 1 pick, he’s taken significant strides in the right direction. In Texas’ 55-0 win over Sam Houston State in Week 4, Manning logged 309 passing yards and three touchdowns, along with two rushing scores.

10. Oklahoma Sooners | 46% chance

Oklahoma’s situation is complicated. The Sooners have looked fantastic this season, but hit a roadblock last week when star quarterback John Mateer was forced to undergo surgery on his throwing hand. Quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. will start in Mateer’s absence.

Oklahoma’s CFP chances will largely depend on how long Mateer’s recovery takes. Last week, On3’s Pete Nakos reported Mateer could be back as early as Oct. 11, for Oklahoma’s showdown against Texas in the Red River Rivalry.