Evaluating which teams can still earn 1-seed in 2026 NCAA Tournament

As February comes to a close and March Madness continues to grow closer, it is time to take a look at which teams will have the best resume in the eyes of the Selection Committee. The NCAA Tournament will feature 68 of college basketball’s best teams, but only four will hold the distinction of 1-seed.

A top seed is worth a lot in the NCAA Tournament, from landing weaker opponents in the early rounds to playing in the preferred destination for traveling fans. Every team in the country is working toward that goal, but only a handful still have the opportunity.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Here is an updated look at which teams are close to securing their spot as a 1-seed in March Madness, and which teams still have a runway to reach the remaining spot among the elite group this season.

Looks like a 1-seed lock

Arizona, Duke, Michigan

Three teams have held the No. 1 spot in bracketology for the majority of the season, creating a tier of their own entering the final weeks. Each taking a different path to this point, Arizona, Duke and Michigan have all become near-locks to land a 1-seed on Selection Sunday.

Duke currently holds a 26-2 overall record, including an 11-2 mark in Q1 and a perfect record in Q2 through Q4. Led by National Player of the Year frontrunner Cameron Boozer, the Blue Devils stand firmly atop the ACC standings and hold a head-to-head win over Michigan.

Michigan has its own strong case for a 1-seed, sitting at 26-2 overall as well. The Wolverines hold an 11-1 mark in Q1, but do have one loss in Q2. However, they hold most wins in the top half of the quadrant system that any team in college basketball with 20.

Meanwhile, Arizona holds the mark for most Q1 wins in college basketball with 12. The Wildcats sit at 26-2 overall, with their only two losses coming in Q1 with a clean slate in the lower quadrants.

These three teams are in very little danger of dropping off the 1-seed line regardless of conference tournament results based on how they have performed to this point in the season. The only thing needed to lock up the top overall seeds is a good close to the regular season.

Has the resume for 1-seed

UConn, Purdue

The second tier of potential 1-seed candidates has built up plenty of big wins to consider themselves worthy of consideration. However, as is evident purely by the number of teams in the category, there are simply too many teams to make everyone fit.

UConn has established itself as the final 1-seed holder at this point in bracketology, with a 26-3 overall record and an 8-2 mark in Q1. The Huskies lag behind in the analytic models in part due to a Q3 loss, but have the strength at the top of their resume to match with anyone.

Purdue has a path to a deep Big Ten tournament run, which would only build on their 22-5 record and add plenty more opportunities to an 8-5 mark in Q1. The Boilermakers have also kept the resume clean in the lower quadrants.

Either of these teams running the table would likely hold off the teams listed below them. However, the door has been left open for movement between the two, thanks to the different strengths of each conference they play in, and the path to a conference title.

Conference title hopes

Houston, Iowa State

This category of teams still has some slim life as a potential 1-seed this season, but likely needs something to shake out the right way above them. Perhaps it means a top team taking a surprise loss, or even a losing streak through the end of the regular season or conference tournament.

Iowa State holds a 24-4 overall record to this point, leaving them within range of the top teams if they can make a run through the Big 12 tournament. The Cyclones would add plenty of Q1 wins to their 6-4 mark, which is complemented by a 10-0 mark in Q2.

Houston has taken a slight dip recently, but holds a 23-5 overall record and 7-5 mark in Q1 opportunities. The Cougars have a clean resume below that, and would rack up multiple Q1 wins with a Big 12 tournament win.

The disclaimer here — based on the case for both these teams — is that a UConn loss and a Purdue loss are a requirement for them to build enough momentum to make a move. Only the strength of the Big 12 conference tournament provides these teams a path.

Darkhorse resume

Florida

Florida has made a strong case for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, accumulating a 22-6 overall record with a 9-5 record in Q1 and a 6-1 record in Q2. They have also continued to climb the analytic rankings, within range of a 1-seed debate if they run the table.

Plenty of other breaks would need to go their way, but Florida is the best team in the SEC with a strong resume. Even if the conference is down from last season, they consistently win in Q1 and Q2 opportunities.