Friday Pick-Six: Week 10 best bets in Bedlam, Texas A&M-Ole Miss and LSU-Alabama
Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour.
We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!)
A good rebound showing after riding the struggle bus the last few weeks. I was a bad-beat backdoor cover away from a 4-1 week, but I won’t hold Colorado’s late touchdown against UCLA on Deion Sanders. So 3-2 will have to suffice. I was confident in Oregon over Utah, Louisville to take care of business against Duke and Arizona to be feisty at home against Oregon State.
My one awful pick was Oklahoma to cover the number against Kansas. So much for being the darlings of the analytics community. The Sooners not only failed to cover, but were outright upset. After nine weeks, I’m 22-21-2, and 4-5 on my upset specials. Let’s make some picks for Week 10.
(All point spreads come from FanDuel).
Texas A&M at No. 10 Ole Miss (-3)
Jimbo Fisher could really, really use a keystone victory this weekend — especially considering Texas A&M has lost eight straight games on the road and are just 5-11 in their last 16 games against Power 5 teams.
But I don’t see it.
This one is personnel for Lane Kiffin, who has a legitimate rivalry with Fisher. Ole Miss quietly has a Top 25 defense and the Rebels rank in the Top 10 nationally in sacks and TFLs — a major red flag for an Aggies OL that’s struggled throughout the season. Toss in the fact that Max Johnson has been bad away from College Station (three picks, just 52% passing) and the Rebels are holding onto long-shot hopes of squeezing their way into the SEC West race, give me Lane & Co.
PICK: Ole Miss -3
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 22 Oklahoma State (+6)
This is going against most of the metrics models, which believes Oklahoma is getting a short number here. The Pokes are just a popular public home ‘dog — and while that’s betting against Mike Gundy’s history in this series (just 3-15 outright vs. Oklahoma) — Oklahoma State does actually have the best player in Bedlam in tailback Ollie Gordon. The Cowboys were 4-0 in October and are suddenly in the Big 12 title race with a Heisman Trophy contender.
Meanwhile, the Sooners are coming off a cold, nasty, physical loss at Kansas, and while I expect a bounce-back spot, their run defense has been spotty of late and star linebacker Danny Stuntsman is doubtful — two major concerns going up against Gordon, who has had 270+ yard games in consecutive weeks.
Based solely on history, Brent Venables’ Sooners probably avoid back-to-back losses but Oklahoma State stays with a touchdown.
PICK: Oklahoma State +6
No. 14 LSU at No. 8 Alabama (-3)
It’s very hard to bet against Jayden Daniels with the way LSU’s quarterback is performing right now. He’s been the best individual player in college football in 2023, willing LSU to wins most weeks. And yet, this is Alabama, at night in Tuscaloosa, in a revenge spot with a chance to remain in the national title hunt. Despite Daniels’ brilliance, there are some real concerns for the Tigers entering Saturday’s monumental matchup.
Overall, LSU has a great OL, but starting right tackle Emery Jones is questionable with an ankle injury. His backup is a true freshman. A promising one, but still. That unit has to go up against the best set of pure edge rushers in the SEC in Dallas Turner (7.0 sacks) and Chris Braswell (6.5 sacks). Not ideal!
Secondly, LSU is down four transfer cornerbacks — all of whom were on the two-deep. Jalen Milroe is quietly among the nation’s Top 10 quarterbacks in passer rating. He’s going to chuck it deep against an inexperienced Tigers secondary.
PICK: Alabama -3
No. 19 UCLA at Arizona (+3)
I’m tripping-down on Jedd Fisch, Noah Fifita and the Wildcats. They outright upset No. 11 Oregon State last weekend and could do the same to a UCLA team prone to turnovers.
The Bruins have the best defense in the Pac-12, but their quarterback play remains spotty — regardless of whether it’s Ethan Garbers or 5-star freshman Dante Moore. They’re also 0-2 on the road in Pac-12 play thus far this season.
I don’t know if the Wildcats can pull-off a third-straight outright upset, but they’re 7-1 against the spread this season and they stay within the number again.
PICK: Arizona +3
No. 5 Washington at No. 20 USC (+3)
I will not back an Alex Grinch defense. I will not back an Alex Grinch defense. I will not back an Alex Grinch defense. I will not back an Alex Grinch defense. I will not back an Alex Grinch defense.
Ah, screw it.
I’m covering my eyes and pinching my nose here. With the way Washington has looked the last few weeks coupled with Caleb Williams’ Superman potential, I’m going to hate-bet the Trojans. Despite their deserved criticisms, they still control their destiny in the Pac-12. And for a conference that projects chaos, I think USC can at least put a real scare into the Huskies.
PICK: USC +3
Upset Du Jour
Georgia Tech at Virginia (-2.5)
Uh, wrong team favored alert? Virginia is playing better, but Georgia Tech is coming off a major upset over North Carolina and now has a real chance to make a bowl game in Year 1 under Brent Key. But they have to beat the Cavaliers to make that happen. Haynes King had his best game in a college uniform last weekend (377 total yards, four touchdowns) and he leads the Bees to their fifth win.
PICK: Georgia Tech