Greg McElroy reveals his Red River Rivalry prediction

No game might be as unpredictable as the Red River Shootout. Still, analysts are taking a stab at choosing a winner between the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners. ESPN’s Greg McElroy is no different, taking the team from Austin due to recent trends from Arch Manning.

“I’m taking the Texas Longhorns,” McElroy said via Always College Football. “I think they bounce back and while — right now, I don’t really trust Texas’ offense, I don’t. I do, however, the arrow is pointing up for their quarterback. I trust offense, still, a little more than I trust Oklahoma’s offense right now.”

McElroy did not clarify whether or not he trusts the OU offense less with John Mateer in there. However, nobody knows at the moment who will wind up being the Sooners’ starting quarterback around 2:30 p.m. CT. Mateer got listed as questionable in Wednesday’s SEC injury report. If he cannot go, Michael Hawkins gets the nod.

Brent Venables has to feel like he can rely on his defense, though. Oklahoma finds itself at No. 1 when it comes to a lot of defensive ranks. Not just in the SEC but throughout college football. Through five games, it’s been completely dominating opponents.

The Texas unit is not too far behind, however, in McElroy’s opinion. If he had to pick one or the other, Oklahoma would still get the nod. But the gap between them and what the two offenses might be does not inspire enough confidence to pick against the Longhorns.

“On defense, I trust Oklahoma’s defense more but the gap between Oklahoma’s defense and Texas’ defense is not quite as wide… I think this game will be played close to the vest — there will be a lot of field position,” McElroy added. “I think it will be capitalizing on mistakes.”

Much of the past quarter-century has gone in favor of those north of the Red River. Oklahoma possesses 17 wins since 2000, while Texas has won the Golden Hat on just nine occasions. Even more recent times tell us close games are played on a consistent basis, producing nine one-score games since 2014.

McElroy is picking Texas to walk away winners this time, a result that head coach Steve Sarkisian needs. If it comes to fruition, the Longhorns climb back to 3-3 overall and get an SEC win under their belt. Meanwhile, the Sooners would suffer its first loss of the 2025 season.