Josh Pate Best Bets: Week 7 College Football Picks, Predictions

College football analyst Josh Pate is locking in his picks for this weekend’s college football slate. Week 7’s showdowns feature some marquee games, and there’s some money to be made.

On the latest episodes of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, the college football insider focused on a myriad of interesting contests. Among the enticing games on the slate are Ohio State at Illinois, Alabama at Missouri, Indiana at Oregon and Oklahoma vs. Texas.

Check out Pate’s predictions below. While the lines may have shifted a bit since his choices were locked in, it’s easy to see where he stands at the moment on each college football game. All lines listed are courtesy of BetMGM. Note that this list will be updated throughout the week as Pate’s shows roll on and more picks come in.

Nebraska (-5.5) at Maryland

Nebraska is coming off a nice win over Michigan State over the weekend, pushing the team to 4-1 on the year. Dylan Raiola was held to a season-low 194 yards passing but the Cornhuskers still found a way to score 38 points and win. Maryland, on the other hand, is coming off a 24-20 loss to Washington. Pate took an early number, but he explained his pick.

Josh Pate: “Nebraska -4.5. All right, we bet against them yesterday and we covered. It’s time to ride Nebraska -4.5. They’re playing Maryland, a team we also bet on yesterday and hit on, so we’ve got a good read on both of these teams. Nebraska’s covering 4.5 this week.”

Northern Illinois (+1.5) at Eastern Michigan

Neither team enters this game on a heater, with Northern Illinois having lost its last four games and Eastern Michigan having lost five of its first six games. Still, Pate sees some opportunity here.

Josh Pate: “Northern Illinois +1.5. Again, Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan are two teams the model always has a really good read on, so when they play each other we really trust our number. And we think the wrong team is favored in this game to start the week, so we’ll take Northern Illinois +1.5.”

Kansas State (+1.5) vs. TCU

Kansas State and TCU are set to meet. The season has not gone according to plan for the Wildcats, who have lost four one-score games. Three of the four were within a field goal, too. TCU, on the other hand, has gotten off to a 4-1 start with a close loss on the road at Arizona State. So who does Pate like?

Josh Pate: “We are going to add two more here. Give us Kansas State, second week in a row we’re riding the Wildcats. Kansas State +1.5 vs. TCU.”

Stanford (+19.5) at SMU

Stanford has had some ugly games this year, including a 27-3 loss at BYU and a 48-20 loss at Virginia. It will have to travel once more, this time to SMU. SMU has already lost two games, falling to Baylor and TCU. Pate pointed out his model has Stanford a bit more competitive than the Vegas line. So he’s taking the Cardinal.

Josh Pate: “I think for the first time this year we’re going to take real money and bet it on Stanford football. This is not David Shaw‘s Cardinal. Stanford +19.5 at SMU. SMU coming off an ACC Championship Game appearance. They haven’t played many high-profile games this year. Have you watched SMU? The model has and it thinks 19.5 a few too many points there. So Stanford +19.5. There you go.”

Bowling Green (+11.5) at Toledo

Everybody loves a little MACtion, even on a Saturday. Not many better than the Battle of I-75 between Bowling Green and Toledo, set to take place in the Glass Bowl.

Much of this rivalry has been dominated by Toledo since the turn of the century. But Bowling Green owns two of the last three victories, including a 41-26 score last season. Pate sees this one closer than BetMGM currently offers, going with the Falcons.

Kansas (+14.5) at Texas Tech

This was a game that Pate mentioned on Thursday, putting it high up on the Upset Alert Meter. He believes Kansas is just “pecking around” at the moment, while Texas Tech is right in the middle of two important games.

The Upset Alert Meter sits at five for an outright Kansas win. However, for this one to hit, Pate only needs the Jayhawks within two scores. An interesting Big 12 showdown in Lubbock on Saturday.

UCF (+10.5) at Cincinnati

Cincinnati is off to a 4-1 start, winning its last four games and even upsetting a ranked Iowa State team 38-30 on their home turf last week. The Knights, meanwhile, have lost their last two games heading into this matchup.

However, UCF is 2-3 against the spread this season. Despite this, Pate feels good about taking the underdog in this matchup.

Arizona State (+9.5) at Utah

Josh Pate criticized oddsmakers for often skewing the odds heavily one way when a backup quarterback starts for any team. That’s the case for Arizona State as college journeyman Jeff Sims is set to make the start following the news that Sam Leavitt is sidelined with injury.

However, Pate is going to try and use that to his advantage, adding ASU plus the point to his best bets this week. They face a 4-1 Utah squad, but Pate feels the Sun Devils will keep the game closer than what is expected from Vegas.

Texas (+1.5) vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma QB John Mateer was listed as probable during Friday’s injury report. Mateer underwent surgery on his throwing hand late last month but has been pushing for a return this week. It remains to be seen if he’ll actually suit up.

It goes without saying, but that will be a major factor in the outcome of the game. Meanwhile for the Longhorns, they’ll be looking to set the tone early defensively with a possibly not 100% Mateer, or against backup QB Michael Hawkins.

Troy (+7.5) at Texas State

Troy has won its last two games after falling short of its upset bid against Clemson and subsequent three-score loss to Memphis. For Texas State, they’re coming off a heart-breaking 31-30 loss to Arkansas State on the road last week.

Texas State boasts a high-powered offense that averages 456.6 yards per game this season. Troy has a top-25 defense against the passing game, holding opposing QBs to 170 yards per game.

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