Josh Pate updates bracket, predictions for College Football Playoff after Week 11

Week 11 saw a projected playoff team and six that were ranked in the initial ranking of the CFP Top-25 lose on Saturday. So, with one of those being projected to be in his field last week for the College Football Playoff, Josh Pate has had to release a new prediction tonight.

Pate provided his latest projection for the bracket of the CFP during ‘Josh Pate’s College Football Show’ on Sunday night. It’s an exercise he’ll be doing now for the next three weeks too going into the release of the actual field on December 7th.

“On Sunday nights now, every Sunday night until Selection Sunday, I’ve got to update my playoff predictions, because I want to be right on this and I’ve decided the only way to be right is to update my predictions every week until the last week – in which case, I’m bound to be right eventually,” said Pate.

Here was that updated field for CFP from Pate coming out of Week 11:

College Football Playoff First Round Game #1

No. 12 USF at No. 5 Texas Tech

Pate was in attendance for the Top-10 matchup that ended in a 29-7 win for Texas Tech over BYU yesterday in Lubbock, which put the Red Raiders in the lead to be in the Big 12 Championship which he now has them winning “no matter what”. That would also be enough for him, maybe controversially to some, but not to others based on them being a conference champion, to move them to the No. 5 seed in the CFP.

With a 55-23 win over UTSA on Thursday night, USF then remained the No. 12 seed, being the highest-ranked champion from the Group of Five, for Pate. However, the Bulls’ season would then end in the opening-round game at Jones AT&T Stadium.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #2

No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Georgia

Georgia, with a 20-point win over Mississippi State in Starkville, then moved up two seed lines, while Georgia Tech is back in the projection for Pate if for no other reason than he has “no idea” right now as to who will be getting that automatic bid for the champion of the ACC. That caused him to apologize, though, as that seeding set up a rematch in the CFP between the Bulldogs and Yellow Jackets in Athens, resulting in a win for the ‘Dawgs, which would be three weeks after they met in the regular season in Atlanta

“I’m so sorry. I didn’t plan it this way,” said Pate. “The committee swears they will not take into account former matchups, so, if it were to play out this way? The committee, and I have no reason to doubt these people, says they will not hesitate to send Georgia Tech to Athens.”

College Football Playoff First Round Game #3

No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Oregon

Pate then put Texas in, thinking the Longhorns could do enough to get in the field even as a three-loss team, as the final at-large in the College Football Playoff. That’d send them to play Oregon, coming off a huge road win at Iowa on Saturday, at Autzen Stadium, with the Ducks winning that incredible helmet game up in Eugene.

“Texas at Oregon in the first round? Pure, unadulterated cinema right there,” Pate stated.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #4

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Ole Miss

Ole Miss then moved down from being the first of the at-larges with a 49-0 blowout of The Citadel, while Notre Dame moved up one seed line by continuing their needed win streak with a 49-10 win over Navy. That’d set up quite the matchup from The Grove between the Fighting Irish and the Rebels, with Pate predicting a “coin flip” win by the home team in The ‘Sip.

“Can you imagine Oxford, Mississippi with Marcus Freeman and company rolling into town?” said Pate.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal #1

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Ole Miss

Ohio State remained the No. 1 overall seed here for Pate after a 34-10 win over Purdue this weekend. He also kept the Buckeyes as his pick to win the Big Ten Championship over Indiana.

With that, Ohio State would get a bye to await the winner of the eight-nine game, with this projection leading to a game against Ole Miss. And, from there, Pate simply advanced the defending champions into the semifinals.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal #2

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 7 Oregon

With their now two months of resurgence over eight straight wins, including this weekend’s victory at 20-9 over LSU, Pate has every reason to keep buying into Alabama. The Crimson Tide was his pick in the preseason to win it all, and has remained his pick as well to win the SEC Championship over Texas A&M.

That would result in a quarterfinal matchup between Alabama and Oregon, the winner of the seven-ten slot. Pate would then, again, back ‘Bama in sending them into the semifinals of the playoff.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal #3

No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 6 Georgia

In his first upset of the entire bracket, Pate went with Georgia, an at-large here out of the SEC, to knock off Indiana, the No. 3 seed as the runner-up in the Big Ten. He understands that could be a hot take, but took a chance nonetheless on the Bulldogs to win there in a quarterfinal over the Hoosiers, who he had making the semifinals a week ago tonight but were tested this weekend in a go-ahead, 27-24 win at Penn State.

“I am going to take Georgia over Indiana,” Pate predicted. “That will be controversial. That’s okay. Georgia is peaking at the right time in this scenario. If they’re not, it’s a moot point and Indiana won’t even be facing Georgia here.”

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal #4

No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 5 Texas Tech

Texas A&M, the runner-up in the SEC Championship, then remained as the No. 4 seed with a 38-17 win at Missouri on Saturday. That set up an in-state matchup in the quarterfinals here as A&M would be set to face Texas Tech.

Pate did have the Aggies winning over the Red Raiders to advance to the semifinals of the CFP. He, however, is feeling that they will not remain undefeated, maybe even beyond the conference title game as he predicted “them to lose a game somewhere”.

College Football Playoff Semifinal #1

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Texas A&M

Whether it be belief in the Buckeyes or some of that expressed concern in the Aggies, Pate then went with Ohio State in a semifinal win over Texas A&M. That’d send the defending champs back into the national title game of the CFP on January 19th, which’d be exactly 364 days since winning it all in 2025.

“I got to take Ohio State over A&M,” decided Pate.

College Football Playoff Semifinal #2

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 Georgia

In a classic postseason matchup we’ve seen time and time again the last few years, Pate predicted the Tide to roll over the ‘Dawgs. They did so in a three-point win between the hedges back in September, and Alabama would do it again here to advance to this projected title game of the College Football Playoff.

“I’ve got to take Alabama over Georgia,” Pate chose.

College Football Playoff National Championship

No. 2 Alabama over No. 1 Ohio State

Finally, again out of principle, Pate still had Alabama winning the national title, in this prediction still with a victory over Ohio State. He wouldn’t say which team he’d pick if that preseason projection weren’t still in play, but, since it is, the Crimson Tide remained the projected winner of the CFP for Pate.

“‘Bama is my preseason pick, so, until there is indisputable evidence, whatever that would be, that knocks me off of that pick, I’m going to stick with my preseason pick,” said Pate. “Now, if I were picking this from scratch, would I pick Alabama to win the national title right now? I can’t exactly confirm that, but you’re going to have to peel that preseason national championship prediction from my cold, dead hands, and I am very much warm-handed right now.”