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Kirk Herbstreit disagrees with ESPN analytics giving Texas A&M 36 percent chance to win vs. Texas

IMG_0985by: Griffin McVeigh19 hours agogriffin_mcveigh
Steve Sarkisian, Mike Elko
Nov 30, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian, left, and Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko, right, speak prior to the game at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

As Texas A&M puts the finishing pieces on LSU in Baton Rouge, ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit began to go over the Aggies’ remaining games. Impressed with their performance vs. LSU, he spoke highly of the chances of winning out. But a graphic highlighting ESPN analytics gave Texas A&M just a 36% chance of winning in Austin.

Well, both Herbstreit and play-by-play commentator Chris Fowler disagreed. Fowler pointed out how Texas barely escaped vs. Mississippi State earlier in the day. As for Herbstreit, he believes the number needs to be a whole lot higher.

“You go to Texas in a rivalry game on Black Friday,” Herbstreit said. “So, they’re going to be heavily favored. That 36 needs to be looked at. I don’t know if I agree with that, home or away.”

Texas A&M has not traveled to Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium since 2010. The rivalry’s long drought ended last season when Texas made its way to College Station, a game they won to clinch a spot in the SEC Championship game. Now, the Aggies are hoping to make similar memories of their own.

You would have to imagine confidence will be sky-high going into the matchup. Texas might be 6-2 but is not playing the best football. Overtime was needed to complete a miracle comeback in Starkville. Just a week ago, Kentucky took them to the brink before a goal line stand and field goal helped the Longhorns win.

Looking at Mike Elko’s bunch, their resume remains unblemished. Everything got started with a program-defining win against Notre Dame. From there, the snowball began to roll in Texas A&M’s favor, all leading to this moment in Baton Rouge. It’s the first win in Baton Rouge since 1994, ending a drought dating back over three decades.

Eventually, the goal will be to get a win vs. Texas, last doing so in the 2010 game. However, a few more games remain before getting the opportunity. Texas A&M takes a bye week after the perceived win over LSU before traveling on the road to Missouri. South Carolina then comes to Kyle Field before closing out the nonconference slate against Samford.

But in reality, the season finale is the game almost everyone has circled on their calendars. ESPN analytics does not give Texas A&M the greatest chance to come out on top. Herbstreit might spend his week figuring out if he can change their minds.