Lane Kiffin uses betting odds to make case for more SEC teams in College Football Playoff

Ahead of 2025’s first College Football Playoff rankings reveal on Nov. 4, Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has an interesting suggestion to help make the CFP selection committee’s job easier. Rather than asking WWJD — What Would Jesus Do? — Kiffin suggested the Playoff’s 12-member selection committee should instead turn to Sin City and ask “What Would Vegas Do?”

Following an offseason that saw the College Football Playoff make changes to its selection criteria, including an renewed focus on a team’s strength of schedule to appease its SEC detractors, Kiffin is calling for the committee to look to Vegas betting odds when making a distinction between two teams with similar resumes. Kiffin made a similar point late last season when Ole Miss was among several three-loss SEC teams — including Alabama and South Carolina — that were left out of 2024 Playoff in favor of one-loss teams like Indiana and SMU despite seemingly stronger resumes.

“What would Vegas do? They’re the best at what they do, by far. Way better than any committee, way better than anybody could. When you look at teams, and you’re … comparing them, if it was a neutral game, what would Vegas make the spread? And that should tell you who the better team is,” Kiffin said during Wednesday’s SEC Coaches Teleconference. “What would Vegas make the spread? And if you were to bet your own money, your kids’ college funds committee, who would you bet on? On a money-line, without the points.

“To me, that tells you a lot – who would Vegas make as a favorite when you’re looking at the teams on a neutral site. That would be the best way to determine who the best teams are. And Vegas doesn’t go ‘Well, there’s already so many teams from this conference, so this one probably shouldn’t go.’ There you go.”

As Kiffin says at the end, using Vegas betting odds would seemingly remove any particular conference bias some committee members might have in order to maintain a sense of balance among the Power Four leagues. Currently, Kiffin’s eighth-ranked Rebels (6-1, 3-1 SEC) remain in the thick of the 2025 Playoff race despite coming off a 43-35 loss at No. 5 Georgia. In fact, the SEC currently has five teams ranked in the AP Top 12 and 10 total teams in its Top 25 after Week 8.

Suffice it to say, if the College Football Playoff committee were to add Vegas betting odds to its selection criteria, it would be a boon for the SEC at large.

College Football Playoff announces changes to how it assesses strength of schedule for teams

In August, the CFP formally announced it is changing the criteria its selection committee utilizes to assess a team’s schedule strength and how teams perform against their respective schedules when evaluating its weekly rankings in the upcoming 2025 college football season.

This change addresses concerns about the committee’s devaluing of strength of schedule metrics raised by the Southeastern Conference after a trio of SEC teams — Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina — missed out on the original 12-team Playoff field despite all having more favorable strength of schedules metrics compared to Playoff teams such as Indiana and SMU.

“Changes for the upcoming season include enhancements to the tools that the selection committee uses to assess schedule strength and how teams perform against their schedule. The current schedule strength metric has been adjusted to apply greater weight to games against strong opponents,” the College Football Playoff release stated. “An additional metric, record strength, has been added to the selection committee’s analysis to go beyond a team’s schedule strength to assess how a team performed against that schedule. This metric rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team. Conversely, these changes will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team.”

Last season, Indiana (11-1) and SMU (11-2) were awarded the Playoff’s 10th and 11th seeds, respectively — pushing out No. 11 Alabama (9-3) as well as fellow 9-win SEC teams Ole Miss and South Carolina — despite the 11-win Hoosiers and Mustangs having the nation’s No. 35 and 41st strength of schedule, per ESPN’s FPI rankings. By comparison, the Crimson Tide’s SOS was ranked No. 20 nationally, with the Gamecocks right behind at 21st. The Rebels’ final SOS was 37th — right between Indiana and SMU.