Mississippi State vs. Florida odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Bulldogs, Gators

Mississippi State and Florida are getting ready for an important mid-season SEC game on Wednesday night. Both teams are currently in the middle of the conference standings with 2-3 records in SEC play. Overall, the Bulldogs are just slightly ahead of the Gators, with a 13-5 record to Florida’s 12-6 record.

The Gators are entering the game with two wins in their last three games while the Bulldogs have won two of their last four. Despite being in a tie for eighth place within the SEC, they’re only a game away from sixth place in an incredibly competitive conference. Coming into the game, the Gators have had the more explosive offense while the Bulldogs have better numbers on defense.

This is the first and only time these two teams meet this season, adding the importance of getting a win in it when looking down the line at the race for the SEC and seeding for the SEC Tournament.

Odds for Mississippi State vs. Florida

Coming into the game, Florida is a 3.5-point favorite over Mississippi State, according to FanDuel.The Gators are currently listed at -172 for the moneyline. For their part, the Bulldogs moneyline is currently at +142.

The point total for the game is set at 154.5 points. In Florida’s last eight games, the over would have hit at that number. However, Mississippi State is coming off a game where the under would have easily hit at that number.

Final score predictions for Mississippi State vs. Florida

BPI Predicted winner: Florida
BPI Predicted point differential: 5.3
BPI Win probability (for UF): 68.4 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 84.9

ESPN’s BPI is a model that is designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Going into this game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 5.3 points in Florida’s favor. BPI is also giving the Gators a 68.4 percent chance to win the game.

BPI is giving this game a matchup quality score of 84.9. That is the sixth-highest matchup quality score for a game on Wednesday night.

KenPom Predicted final score: Florida 79, Mississippi State 76
KenPom Win probability (for UF): 60 percent

Like BPI, KenPom is a predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Florida and Mississippi State, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Gators to win by three points. It also projects 155 total points will be scored.

How to watch Mississippi State vs. Florida

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Channel: SECN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Gainesville (FL)

Mississippi State and Florida are set to meet at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center in Gainesville on Wednesday night, making this a home game for the Gators. The game itself will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET

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For fans who want to watch the game but won’t be able to make it to campus, the game will be available on the SEC Network and will be available for streaming on FuboTV, which does come with the option for a free trial.