Nate Oats debates whether win over Auburn should give Alabama a 1-seed in NCAA Tournament

Nate Oats isn’t ready to make Alabama‘s case as a definitive No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. But he knows Saturday’s epic road win over top-ranked Auburn could certainly help the Crimson Tide’s cause.

Following Mark Sears’ buzzer-beating floater to seal Saturday’s 93-91 victory over the No. 1 Tigers on their home court, the sixth-year Alabama head coach waffled on whether the No. 7-ranked Crimson Tide (24-7, 13-5 SEC) have done enough to earn a coveted top seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

“That’s a tough question, I don’t know. You look at some of the wins we have, they give you a lot more credit for road wins. Houston’s going to be a 1-seed, and we beat them on a neutral (site), Auburn’s going to be a 1-seed for sure, we beat them on their home floor,” Oats said during Saturday’s postgame press conference. “So I think with our quality wins we’ve got, (we’ll) certainly will be in the mix (for a 1-seed). It’s just, do we have too many losses?

“We lost four of these in the last seven, which wasn’t ideal, but I also don’t think anybody in the country has played a seven-game stretch like we’ve played either. So we’ve fought, battled and come up with a big win. We’ll see. If we’re not a 1-seed and we’re a 2-seed, that’s not the worst thing either.”

Famed college basketball data analyst Ken Pomeroy currently has Alabama ranked as the sixth-best team in the country based on his metrics, meaning the Crimson Tide would be among the 2-seeds. That squares with ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, who is currently projecting Alabama as the No. 2 seed — behind fellow No. 2 seeds Michigan State and Tennessee — in the Midwest (Indianapolis) regional.

On3’s own bracketologist, James Fletcher III, currently projects the Crimson Tide as the No. 2 seed in the Midwest regional. Although he acknowledges “a deeper run” in next week’s conference tournament could change some minds among the NCAA Selection Committee.

Certainly helping matters is Alabama’s 7-3 record in Quad 1 road games, including Saturday’s win at No. 1 Auburn, which is still widely projected to be the No. 1 overall seed outside of a complete collapse in next week’s SEC Tournament. Overal, the Crimson Tide has a combined 18-7 record in Quad 1-2 games, including 7-0 in Q2 games.

But as Oats indicated, Alabama’s recent stumbles are weighing down its chances at a 1-seed after losing four of its last seven games — all Quad 1 games. That included road losses at No. 4 Tennessee and No. 15 Missouri and home losses vs. the rival Tigers and No. 5 Florida, which Lunardi currently projects as the final No. 1 seed due in large part to its win in Tuscaloosa.

Of course, the Crimson Tide could go a long way into locking up a top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament by outright winning the SEC Tournament next week in Nashville.