Oregon at Penn State prediction: James Franklin, Nittany Lions get victory in 'desperation spot'

Oregon and Penn State are set to clash in a top 10 matchup between Big Ten foes in Week 5. It’s a game that is a rematch of last year’s conference title game, which the Ducks won.

There’s a lot on the line for both schools entering the contest, but perhaps more so for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions. The Penn State coach holds just a 4-20 record against top 10 opponents in his 12 seasons at the helm.

College football analyst Josh Pate broke down the game in Tuesday’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Footbal Show. He pointed toward Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar being a big factor, citing some questions he has following the first three games this season.

“All the keys everyone’s gonna point out, this is about Drew Allar,” Pate said. “That’s who this game’s about. There is a world where Penn State runs for 200 and they still lose and I know that because I watched them run for 297 against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game last year and guess what They still lost. So all due respect to the ground game, I assume they’ll get theirs I know they will. No one’s gonna shut down Penn State running the ball. But Drew Allar, he’s 2-of-9 on throws of over 20 yards in the air so far this year. Also, they’ve had six explosive passes all year. That’s good for 95th in the country.

“‘Josh, but they haven’t played anybody.’ I’ve heard you guys say that to me over and over again. Here’s my question: are you insinuating they’re holding something back? Are you insinuating me that Penn State possesses the ability to stretch the field vertically any time they want to and they’ve simply bottled that up? If you’re right, this is a really big deal and if you’re right, I need to pick Penn State to win this game and they will emerge from this as a bonafide national championship contender.”

Through three games this season, Allar has thrown for 626 yards and four touchdowns to one interceptions. Penn State will need him to take a step forward in its toughest matchup yet if it is to come out the victor.

On the other side, Dante Moore has been electric so far for Oregon with 962 yards and 11 touchdowns with one interception as the Ducks have dominated their early season. But he also hasn’t seen this level of defense yet.

“Dante Moore from Oregon, really good player,” Pate said. “Has not faced this kind of environment. They’ve got to go in there and try to maintain what they’ve been doing and avoid the crowbar. They’ve had 31 plays of 20+ through the air already this year. If you haven’t watched Oregon, he’s near 75% completion. So if I’m a Penn State fan, I’m listening to that and I’m going, ‘Yeah I know he’s good. He hasn’t faced us.’ And you’re right.

“…Oregon’s offensive line going on the road against the No. 1 pressure rate defense in the country, that’s really what we’re looking at here. As much as I said there’s a world where Penn State’s rushing numbers don’t end up being the end all be all, there is a world where they do end up winning the game. Because Penn State and the pressure they can put on Oregon kind of puts them in a blender and Penn State realizes, ‘Oh, we can compress the game.’ Remember, Jim Knowles, who is the DC at Penn State now, faced Oregon twice last year. Once in Eugene and then they just completely overhaul everything about their approach and suffocated them a few months later in Pasadena like not even the same team’s playing.”

In the end, despite the questions surrounding Allar and Penn State’s ability to win in big games, Pate opted to pick the Nittany Lions to win. He thinks they could get a little more creative on offense if their QB struggles, but the defense and home environment will play big factors here as well.

“Penn State’s just gotta win this game,” he said. “They’ve just got to win the game. You could not write this thing with any more edge tilted toward Penn State than there is. Of course, Oregon, pehnomenal team. By the end of the year, if they face off again, I’d probably pick Oregon. In this spot, I’m just telling you I think it’s a desperation spot for Penn State.

“They have geared up for this thing all spring, all summer. They know what’s at stake. I mean, if they lose this thing, the odds of going into Columbus and winning in another month or two are not great. It’s gonna be tough anyway. They’ve just gotta get it. I’m gonna take Penn State in a big game. I’m gonna take James Franklin in a big game.”