Paul Finebaum reveals how many SEC teams he truly believes in after Week 12

A week ago, Paul Finebaum wasn’t willing to rule out the notion that half of the 12-team College Football Playoff field could be filled by SEC teams. But, after a pivotal Week 12 that saw a pair of Top 10 SEC powers — Alabama and Texas — fall on Saturday to Oklahoma and Georgia, respectively, ESPN‘s “Mouth of the South” was far less confident.

During his weekly Monday appearance on the McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning radio show, Finebaum revealed the three SEC teams he believes are CFP locks with two weeks remaining in the regular season. He then listed two other conference SEC programs that he believes could also make the 12-team field, with one noticable omission — the 10th-ranked Crimson Tide.

“I truly believe in Georgia, I think everyone else does as well. Same for Ole Miss. … A&M did not disappoint me in the sense that people are (questioning if) they are still a championship contender. They took a half off (during an) 11 am kick against a (South Carolina) team that has managed to lose to just about everyone, and then they pulled off the greatest comeback in modern SEC history. So, I’m not mad at them. I think (Texas A&M is) really good,” Finebaum said Monday morning. “And I think that’s where you have it right now. Oklahoma is a little harder to quantify … in terms of how well that defense has played and how it keeps them in literally every game. … And then, can Vanderbilt find a spot in this crowded field ahead of them? But it’s pretty obvious who the best and the brightest are at the top of this league.”

What’s less obvious is why Finebaum didn’t include Alabama (8-2, 6-1 SEC), which is still in the mix to make the SEC Championship game despite Saturday’s 23-21 home loss to No. 8 Oklahoma. Greg McElroy, the show’s co-host and a former Crimson Tide quarterback, quickly remedied that omission by suggesting his alma mater would likely return to the CFP after infamously missing out on it last season, so long as they beat rival Auburn in Week 14.

“It’s looking like five,” McElroy said of the SEC’s potential number of Playoff berths. “If Bama can win (out), if Oklahoma can win out, it feels like Georgia, Ole Miss and A&M are all locks at this point regardless of what happens down the stretch. So it’s kind of wild to see we’re in this spot, but also pretty amazing too given the depth of the league.”

Entering Week 13, the SEC has five teams currently with a 50-percent-or-better chance to make this season’s College Football Playoff, according to ESPN Analytics. No. 3 Texas A&M (10-0, 7-0 SEC) is a near-certainty with a 99.9% chance of making the 12-team field, even with a 25.3% chance of winning out the remainder of the regular season, which includes No. 17 Texas on Black Friday. No. 4 Georgia (9-1, 7-1 SEC), No. 5 Ole Miss (10-1, 6-1 SEC), and Alabama have a better-than-80% chance of making the 12-team field, while the Sooners’ Playoff chances are currently at 50.3-percent as the SEC’s potential fifth bid.