Paul Finebaum 'will be the most shocked person on the face of the Earth' if Penn State wins national championship

Paul Finebaum has been critical of James Franklin. That dates back to the days the longtime Penn State head coach last roamed the sidelines at Vanderbilt, where he led the Commodores to the program’s first-ever back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2012-13.

As Franklin enters Year 12 in State College with what even ESPN’s “Mouth of the South” calls “the best team he’s had” at Penn State, Finebaum isn’t backing down from his derision. In fact, it’s because of Franklin’s history of failing to win the big one against college football’s best that has Finebaum doubling down about the likely preseason Top 5-ranked Nittany Lions’ chances of ending 2025 as the College Football Playoff national champions.

“Listen, I’m not one that likes to equivocate, but on January 20^th, if I’m sitting here eating my words, I will be the most shocked person on the face of the Earth — James Franklin and Penn State will not win the national championship,” Finebaum said Thursday morning on ESPN’s Get Up. “It has nothing to do with the team, they’re excellent. They’re fantastic. It’s the best team he has had. But they still have the problem that they’ve had since James Franklin arrived from Vanderbilt. They have James Franklin as the head coach.

“And while he is a very good head coach, his record speaks for himself, he is incapable of winning that last game,” Finebaum concluded. “We saw it last year when he blew a 10-point lead against Ohio State. He blew a 10-point lead against Notre Dame. And I’m getting sick and tired of talking about the leads he’s blown. But he’s done nothing to convince me otherwise.”

Paul Finebaum: ‘I’m getting sick and tired of talking about the leads’ James Franklin has blown

Finebaum’s critique has some truth to it. Penn State held an early 10-0 lead over Notre Dame with just over 2 minutes left in the second quarter in their CFP national semifinal at the Orange Bowl. The Fighting Irish battled back to outscore the Nittany Lions 24-14 in the second half, including a 10-0 run over the game’s final 4 1/2 minutes as Notre Dame kicker Mitch Jeter nailed a game-winning 41-yard field goal in the game’s closing seconds to punch their ticket to the CFP national championship game vs. Ohio State.

It was eerily similar to Penn State’s collapse against those same Buckeyes during the regular season in Happy Valley, when the Nittany Lions jumped out to a 10-0 advantage in the game’s first 10 minutes before Ryan Day and Ohio State rolled off 17-straight before both teams traded field goals over the final 20 minutes of regulation for a 20-13 home loss inside Beaver Stadium.

Of course, 2025 is a brand new season and the Nittany Lions enter it with arguably the nation’s most well-rounded roster. That includes college football’s best backfield with senior QB Drew Allar and dualing 1,000-yard rushers Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton.

But whether Finebaum ultimately eats his words on the morning of Jan. 20, 2026 will be up to Franklin and Penn State proving him wrong on the field this season. In the meantime, Finebaum isn’t letting up on his Franklin criticism anytime soon.