Picking one big winner in each of Thursday's NCAA Tournament games
This isn’t your average article picking winners and losers. There’s no advice on which teams to take, per se, nor which spreads to bet. But what you can find is one player, coach, storyline, etc. that will win each game.
Essentially: what will people be talking about when it comes to these games? Perhaps folks will focus on a certain coach’s legacy, or a team’s unique style of play, or perhaps there’s a wacky off-the-court story that’s fascinated us all.
So come and take a look at the predicted “winners” of each of Thursday’s NCAA Tournament games, going in the order which the games tip off. So, let’s start with the noon window…
(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Michigan State
WINNER: The little guys. These two MSU’s are not the most exciting offensive teams in the world, but they do have two of the most electric guards in the entire tournament who are both six-foot and under. Their names: Josh Hubbard and Tyson Walker.
Hubbard is a 5’9 freshman fireball who comes off the bench as Mississippi State’s spark plug sharpshooter, canning 3-pointers from practically anywhere beyond half-court. Meanwhile, Walker averages north of 18 per game and is the Spartan lifeline on offense more often than not, serving as the only consistent shooter on the team. The winner of that one vs. one matchup could likely decide the game.
(6) BYU vs. (11) Duquesne
WINNER: The Dukes’ last dance. It’s the final rodeo for 10 players in this game who are fifth-year seniors (or older), with seven of those playing for Duquesne. Plus, longtime head coach and mid-major legend Keith Dambrot is also calling it quits after this season following 30+ years as a collegiate coach.
What a way to go out for Dambrot, who hadn’t made an NCAA Tournament yet at Duquesne and last made the Big Dance with Akron in 2013. And leading his team is fifth-year senior Dae Dae Grant, fifth-year senior Jimmy Clark and five other wily old veterans who could give this BYU team all the trouble they can handle in their last go-around as college players.
(3) Creighton vs. (14) Akron
WINNER: The Blue Jay Triumvirate. The Blue Jays made the Elite Eight last year and are viable Final Four contenders agains this season thanks to the best trio in college hoops: Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner.
Those guys combine to average 53 points, 22 rebounds and 10 assists per game. That’s 66% of the team’s points, 58% of the team’s rebounds and 59% of the team’s assists coming from three players. In March, depth is mostly overrated. Ride the best players — and few teams have better stars than Creighton, even if the bench is very lackluster.
(2) Arizona vs. (15) Long Beach State
WINNER: Long Beach State coach Dan Monson. Monson is already one of the biggest winners of March, and perhaps its best story. Long Beach State informed him prior to the conference tournament that they’d part ways after 17 years at the helm once the season ends. But then, Monson led a shocking run to win the Big West title and make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a dozen years.
Now, who will be playing with less to lose than Monson and LBSU? This school is feeling themselves, because they also just took a page out of the Barbie movie and changed their official nickname in athletics to “The Beach.” That begs the question: can this Kenergy lead to an upset of No. 2 seed Arizona in the first round for a second straight year after the Wildcats also fell to a 15-seed last season?
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Wagner
WINNER: Hubert Davis. In what’s likely to be a UNC blowout, expect the broadcast to shine some light on the superb coaching job of Hubert Davis this season reviving Carolina after a horribly disappointing 2022-23 year.
The Davis tenure was a roller coast through two years, with UNC massively underachieving in the regular season in 2022 and 2023 but making that legendary national title game run and ending Coach K’s career in the ’22 Final Four. That win alone buys Davis legend status for life, but after the ’23 season, it was fair to wonder whether he could coach a truly elite team. Worry no more, Tar Heel fans, because he has delivered in year three.
(3) Illinois vs. (14) Morehead State
WINNER: The COVID year. Preston Spradlin has Morehead State back in the NCAA Tournament and led by Riley Minix, Jordan Lathon, and Kalil Thomas scoring north of 60% of the team’s points. All three are fifth-year seniors enjoying their extra COVID year after each beginning at different schools.
On the other side, Illinois has a fifth-year All-American in Terrence Shannon Jr., averaging north of 20 points per game, alongside fellow fifth-year transfer Marcus Domask averaging 16 points and nearly four assists. That’s a lot of star power between these clubs thanks to that extra year of eligibility.
(6) South Carolina vs. (11) Oregon
WINNER: Dana Altman in March. For the second time in the last five NCAA Tournaments, Oregon has stolen a bid under Dana Altman. In 2019, with recent Elite Eight and Final Four berths in ’16 and ’17, the Ducks struggled in the regular season but stormed through the Pac-12 tourney and wound up in the Sweet 16 as a 12-seed, losing to eventual champ Virginia.
Then, in 2021, Oregon made the NCAA Tournament as a 7-seed with Bobby Knight’s dream lineup: A 6’5 point guard surrounded by four other 6-foot-6 players. Man, was that team fun to watch, and they punked Luka Garza and No. 2 seed Iowa 95-80 in round two before losing to USC that year. Altman has advanced to the Sweet 16 in the last four NCAA Tournaments he’s been apart of, and there’s reason to believe that streak continues.
(7) Dayton vs. (10) Nevada
WINNER: Steve Alford’s offense. The last Steve Alford team to make a March Madness run was 2017 UCLA, which produced one of the most electric offenses of the 2010s decade behind Lonzo Ball, TJ Leaf and a slew of shooters surrounding them.
This time around, it’s a Nevada team that’s just terrific across the board. The Wolfpack are top-40 in offense analytically, top-40 in 3-point percentage, No. 3 in the country in drawing fouls, and rarely get their shots blocked or turn the ball over. Plus, they won their last seven regular season games and are shooting 45% from 3 since February 20th. Nevada is HOT.
(7) Texas vs. Colorado State
WINNER: Bracketologists. We can all thank the heavens that Colorado State beat in Virginia’s brains Tuesday night, saving college hoops fans from having to suffer through any more Tony Bennett ball this March.
The Cavaliers were universally rebuked as the one team that certainly should not have made the NCAA Tournament, and bracketologists everywhere felt vindicated as Virginia failed to score for 14 game minutes in the loss to the Rams while the broadcast at one point showed they hadn’t scored in nearly 50 minutes of real time. No matter what, Colorado State and Texas will provide more entertainment than that.
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Oakland
Winner: 3-point shooting. It could be a blowout, but even if so, Kentucky vs. Oakland sets up as the most electrifying 3-14 matchup possible given their similar styles of runnin’ and gunnin’ and jacking up a million 3-pointers.
Kentucky doesn’t launch them all the time, but when they do, Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard and Antonio Reeves are absolutely lethal from deep and helped the Wildcats to the No. 1 3-point shooting percentage in the country at just over 41.1%. Meanwhile, Oakland has two shooters both knocking down exactly 37% of their triples on nine attempts per game apiece. Expect a barrage and take the over, folks.
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) McNeese State
WINNER: Will Wade. A couple years back, Will Wade was caught on wiretap making a “strong-a**” offer to a recruit and asserting he could pay a Clemson transfer “better than the rookie minimum” in the NBA — all part of a scandal that earned him a suspension and a laundry list of prohibitions from the IARP, an NCAA governing body that no longer exists and whose rulings were final and un-appealable.
It was dire straits for Wade in 2022 when LSU ultimately fired him over the scandal. But since, he landed on his feet at McNeese State and has the Jackrabbits 30-3 and in their first NCAA Tournament in 22 years. After a turbulent couple years off the court, he’ll get his flowers as an excellent ball coach on the court — and maybe McNeese can steal one over a mediocre Gonzaga team by their standards.
(2) Iowa State vs. (15) South Dakota State
WINNER: Coaching styles. We’ve got oil vs. water in this 2-15 matchup, because there may not be two coaches more diametrically opposed than TJ Otzelberger (ISU) and Eric Henderson (SDSU).
Iowa State is your grandfather’s type of contender, succeeding on the back of defense, rebounding and toughness. They can score enough points, but it’s those gritty areas where they win games. Meanwhile, South Dakota State is far more finesse and rank as one of the very best shooting teams in the country from both 2 and 3. Plus, they actually rebound well enough to not get killed by the Cyclones on the glass, so there could be some danger for the two-seed here.
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Saint Peter’s
WINNER: Saint Peter’s 2022 NCAA Tournament run. With the Peacocks back in the Big Dance for just the second time ever, their first and historic tourney run will certainly get a lot of coverage. Plus, Tennessee fans won’t mind revisiting clips of that ’21 group breaking the hearts of bitter rival Kentucky. Let’s just hope that serves as a warning to the actual Volunteer players and staff.
As for Saint Pete’s, they’re virtually a completely different hoops program altogether compared to two years ago. The head coach left for Seton Hall, and all but one player, the 12th man on that group, has left. But that player? Current second-leading scorer Latrell Reid, who may still have some of that magic left over.
(6) Texas Tech vs. (11) NC State
WINNER: DJ Burns. Six years ago, DJ Burns was a redshirt freshman at Tennessee and the second-heaviest college basketball player in the nation behind Zion Williamson. Six years later, he’s much more skilled, but has hardly shed a pound, and that’s why he’s a March Madness darling.
Burns would struggle jumping over Sunday’s issue of the New York Times, but by golly, the rotund Wolfpack star can bully literally any player in the country with a sheer mass that most front-lines just can’t match. Plus, Texas Tech has not had starting center Warren Washington available for a month, who’s their only player taller than 6’8. If Washington’s not back, Tech could be in for one loooooong evening trying to handle Burns.
(4) Kansas vs. (13) Samford
WINNER: The inevitable consistency of Bill Self. It’s no secret that Kansas is not trending in the right direction in March. Their two best players, Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson, combine to average nearly 40 points per game, but both were out with injury in the Big 12 Tournament, and McCullar is done for the season. It’s the most underwhelming KU team in at least five seasons.
So you may think the move is to take Samford, a ruthlessly efficient offensive operation and anchored by the double-named big man Achor Achor. However, you’re betting against one of the surest trends in the NCAA Tournament — that Kansas always wins its first round game. Bill Self hasn’t lost in the round of 64 since 2005 with 19 straight wins, including just one by less than 10 points.
(7) Washington State vs. (10) Drake
WINNER: Size. In the modern age of little three-point assassins and slithery point guards dominating basketball games, it’s easy to forget just how impactful size can be on the court. That’s not the case for Washington State.
The Cougars have a freshman point guard, Myles Rice, who runs the show, but then start four other guys who are 6’8, 6’8, 6’9 and 6’11. They have the largest starting lineup in the country by far and can overwhelm foes with their sheer length — just ask Arizona. Meanwhile, just one of Drake’s nine rotation players stands taller than Washington State’s starting two guard.
With such facts in hand, adjust those final bracket picks and enjoy the greatest two days on the sports calendar.