Predicting the College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting the First Four in, First Two out in initial 2023 release
The inaugural 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings will be released Tuesday evening by the selection committee — the first of six rankings before Selection Day after conference championship weekend.
While the early rankings are mostly for TV, there’s still plenty of intrigue how the committee will view these teams in the final four-team format.
Who will be ranked No. 1?
In the nine previous rankings, the top team in the first College Football Playoff Rankings of that season made the playoff seven times, per ESPN Stats & Information. One of the two outliers with Tennessee just last year. Expect some surprises on Tuesday, as we don’t know how the committee will handle Michigan’s ongoing scouting scandal or lack of a marquee win. Which one-loss team do they believe deserves a spot inside the Top 6? We’ll find out.
Here is how we project how the selection committee sees the initial 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings:
1. Ohio State
The Buckeyes continue to win ugly, but the committee won’t care about style points in the initial rankings considering Ohio State has two of the best wins of the season.
The victories over Penn State and at Notre Dame, which looks more impressive by the week, coupled with Saturday’s win at Wisconsin, give Ryan Day’s team the top resume and deserved top-spot in the rankings. Their offense won’t win any efficiency arguments, but Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best player in the country and the Buckeyes received a big boost with the return of tailback TreVeyon Henderson on Saturday.
2. Georgia
The Bulldogs came off their bye week and bludgeoned Florida 43-20 without their best player in injured tight end Brock Bowers. They scored 36 unanswered points and looked like the scariest team in the nation once again.
Their strength of schedule remains weak, as they have zero wins over a team that’s currently ranked. That could change quickly with Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee upcoming, but the committee could ding the ‘Dawgs for a nothing-burger non-conference slate. They also could tip the scales in UGA’s favor as the two-time defending champ that is undefeated.
3. Michigan
Like Georgia, the Wolverines do not have a single Top 25 win on their resume to date, but considering the committee openly uses data from SportSource Analytics, no team in the country this season has been more efficient as a whole.
Michigan ranks No. 1 nationally in offensive and defensive EPA, is tops in the country in game control and still hasn’t faced a single 1st-and-goal defensive snap all season.
They have the current Heisman Trophy favorite in quarterback J.J. McCarthy, too.
I doubt the committee will penalize Jim Harbaugh’s team for the alleged sign-stealing scandal, but it’s at least a wild card to acknowledge.
4. Florida State
The Seminoles’ resume isn’t as impressive with Clemson (now with four losses) and Duke (stumbling with injured quarterback Riley Leonard) collecting losses in recent weeks, but victory over LSU remains one of the best wins in 2023.
Mike Norvell’s team has four wins away from Tallahassee already, and are one of the darlings of efficiency rankings on both sides of the ball. They were fortunate to escape Boston College with a win, but otherwise, have handled their business accordingly.
FIRST TWO OUT
5. Washington
The Huskies’ win over Oregon looks better each week, but since beating the Ducks at home by three points, Washington has actually looked worse. While it still has one of the most explosive offenses in the country with Michael Penix Jr. and a star-studded group of receivers, its defense has shown signs of concerning warts.
In the last two weeks, the Huskies needed comeback wins to beat a 1-5 Arizona State and 2-5 Stanford. They could be docked for both performances.
6. Oregon
Oregon, Texas and Alabama all have a claim as the best one-loss team in the country right now, but we project the Ducks to take the sixth and final spot among the First Two Out.
Bo Nix, Bucky Irving & Co., completely thumped a Utah team that had won 29 of 30 at home. While the Ducks don’t have the most marquee win, they do have four road victories (like FSU) and have been the more efficient team compared to Texas and Alabama.
Their lone loss was a missed field goal at Autzen Stadium, and they rank in the Top 15 nationally in offense and defensive yards per play.