Pressing Questions: Sign-stealing scandal impact on Michigan-Penn State, did Deion Sanders make a mistake, will the Vols rout Missouri?
Lots of Michigan talk in the Week 10 mailbag. Plus, did Deion Sanders make a big mistake demoting Sean Lewis? How many teams are truly alive in the final four-team field of the College Football Playoff? Will the Vols rout Missouri again? All that and more.
As always, you can submit a question via my internet mailbox at [email protected] or send a DM/Tweet reply @JesseReSimonton.
This week’s questions…
How will the scandal at Michigan affect this week’s game at Penn State? — Michael
I don’t think the Wolverines’ ongoing sign-stealing saga will have any impact on their biggest game to date of the 2023 season. If you’d asked me this question Sunday when rumors were running rampant that Jim Harbaugh would suspended, perhaps I’d feel a bit differently.
While Big Ten coaches are indigent and are pushing commissioner Tony Petitti to punish the Wolverines, it’s clear (and obvious why) the conference is reluctant to hammer one of its premiere programs in the middle of a potential special season.
So J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum & Co., will be fully focused on the Nittany Lions this weekend. The scandal has only further fueled Michigan’s “Us Against The World” mentality. That’s not ideal for a James Franklin program that is just 3-16 against Top 10 teams!
I think Michigan — with as good of a defense, better skill players and the better quarterback — rolls again on Saturday. Penn State needs Drew Allar to play out of his mind to engineer the upset. Otherwise, I don’t see an avenue to victory for PSU.
Gaze into your crystal ball and give us a prediction on how this Michigan football fiasco will be resolved? It’s been quite embarrassing for the Wolverines’ football program. — Ed
This is a tough one to answer. And I think it’s okay (and good) to admit: I have no idea.
There’s no precedent here. But if we’re talking crystal ball guesses, I don’t think punishment happens until after the season. They won’t be banned from the College Football Playoff or anything.
Connor Stalions isn’t talking and no one has subpoena power. Unless Michigan decides to roll over on Harbaugh and offer up its head coach to the firing squad, then this scandal is going to linger into the offseason. The NCAA is feckless and laboriously slow on investigations.
On Saturday, the Big Ten notified the Wolverines of potential disciplinary action, but Michigan is allowed proper time to respond before any punishment is imposed. That response could come as soon as today and tomorrow.
The Wolverines appear intent to fight for Harbaugh, which means we could end up tied up in all sorts of litigation.
It’s messy and complicated. New rumors swirl every day, but the end does not appear near. I think.
I’ve long opined I believe this is Jim Harbaugh’s final season at Michigan, and I still strongly believe that.
Once the dual investigations (remember both the NCAA and Big Ten are separate) close, if found guilty, Michigan will likely be hit with real sanctions — be it a future bowl ban, loss of scholarships, potential suspensions and a huge fine.
Demoting Sean Lewis seems like a mistake by Deion Sanders, no? The offense isn’t the problem for Colorado. It’s their defense. — Jason
Deion Sanders’ knee-jerk decision to yank play-calling duties away from Sean Lewis and hand them to NFL retread Pat Shurmur — who hasn’t coached in college since the late 90s, has never called plays with amateurs and doesn’t run an Air Raid system — reeks of desperation needing to point blame somewhere.
The question is why did Coach Prime deem such an inexplicable decision necessary?
Is he trying to protect his son Shedeur Sanders’ draft stock? He knows his offensive line isn’t going to magically get bigger and better at run blocking, so why demote what many considered his best off-season hire?
Unsurprisingly, Shurmur’s fingerprints didn’t suddenly solve Colorado’s problems. Ironically, in the loss to Oregon State on Saturday, Shurmur actually called passes more on a per-play basis than Lewis had in any game this season. The Buffs played at a slightly slower tempo, but still ran the ball for just 31 yards on 11 carries. So, problem not solved!
Sanders has already exceeded expectations in Year 1 at Colorado. He’s under no pressure to produce more. Yet he panicked after a three-game losing streak.
That’s a red flag.
Sanders hand-waved any explanation for why he made the move, mainly saying, “Trust the process,” and “I got tinted windows and you can’t even see in the house.”
The lack of self-awareness with tinted windows quote is comical considering Colorado is the most overexposed program in America with cameras filming everything for Sanders’ reality show on YouTube. Oh, and the rash decision screams the opposite of trust.
As for Lewis, he is likely one-and-done with the Buffs, but the former Kent State head coach will be among the more sought-after OCs in the country this offseason. His market is already hot behind the scenes and it will continue to grow in the coming weeks.
Breakdown who you believe is truly alive for a CFB playoff bid currently in the 4-team bracket vs. who would be alive right now with the 12-team format next year? — Eric
Entering Week 11, nine teams can truly make the final four-team College Football Playoff — Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, Washington, Oregon, Texas, Alabama and Penn State.
I know Ole Miss and Louisville both have just the lone loss, but the Rebels — even if they upset the Bulldogs and win out — won’t get in over a 1-loss SEC Champion. Their only path is to pray Alabama loses to either Kentucky or Auburn and then run the table, including beating Georgia twice. That’s like a 100-1 parlay. The Cardinals also have an unrealistic shot, even as a 12-1 ACC Champion. Their schedule is simply too soft and their loss (a blowout at Pitt) is bad.
Now, obviously both those teams would be well in the mix in next year’s 12-team format. Remember, in the expanded format the highest-ranked Group of Five team is guaranteed a bid, so Tulane would be that team in 2023. But Fresno State, Liberty and Air Force would still be in contention for a spot at this date.
Overall, some 20-ish teams would be alive right now. Two-loss teams like Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Oklahoma, North Carolina, etc. — all programs that have no shot to make the CFP field this season — would have a path to cracking next year’s field.
For some, that’s super exciting. For others, it means a regular season that doesn’t mean as much.
Do the Vols blow out Mizzou again this year? Andrew
Josh Heupel has had Eli Drinkwitz’s number the last two seasons, hanging 66 and 64 points on the Tigers in two routs.
That ain’t happening Saturday in Columbia.
The Vols absolutely can win, and they’re even favored by 1.5 points, but while Joe Milton is playing better in recent weeks, he’s not leading an offense that’s hammering teams. This is an offense that’s fueled by its running game, with Jaylen Wright (826 yards, 7.5 yards per carry) emerging as one of the best ‘backs in the SEC. He had two touchdowns against the Tigers last season. Despite his success in 2023, he’s found the end zone just three times this season.
Missouri’s pass defense was bad in 2022 (7.1 yards per attempt, 10th in the SEC), and the Vols threw that ball for 460 yards and four touchdowns in that win. In 2021, the Tigers couldn’t stop the run (last in the SEC), and Tennessee rolled up more than 450 yards on the ground in that win.
Mizzou is much-improved on both fronts this season. But the Tigers are coming off a tough, emotional loss at Georgia, so we’ll see how they respond. Star wideout Luther Burden is questionable with an ankle injury, and him missing the game would certainly help Tennessee’s chances, too.
This is essentially a New Year’s Six elimination game, so the stakes are high for both teams. I think it’ll be a fun watch Saturday afternoon.