Rece Davis outlines how the Big Ten could only have two teams in the College Football Playoff

If the bracket had been set with the rankings reveal on Tuesday night, the Big Ten would have three teams in the College Football Playoff, with two teams also in contention to try to get into the CFP. That has most experts expecting about a three-bid effort in the end by the Big Ten, but ESPN’s Rece Davis sees a simple scenario that leaves them with just a pair in the field.

On the ‘College GameDay Podcast’ earlier this week, Pete Thamel asked him if there was a way to end up with a two-bid finish in the playoff for the Big Ten. Davis answered with a yes.

“Yes. I agree,” Davis said. “And, you know, this sort of underscores because that’s why I don’t think there should be, you know, a specified number of bids. You have to evaluate the teams. Where you evaluate the conference in which they play is the strength of their schedule overall, all 12 games. I think that’s the prudent and best way to do it.”

Davis explained that it comes down to what happens this weekend at the game that they’ll be at for ‘College GameDay’ with No. 15 USC vs. No. 7 Oregon up in Eugene. He noted that a win by the Trojans would do enough to knock the Ducks onto the bubble.

Davis also stated a USC win might not be enough to get itself in. That would leave Oregon, USC, and Michigan at the mercy of the selection committee, or just outright out already, with only Ohio State and Indiana, still currently projected to be the top two seeds overall in the CFP from the Big Ten.

“The scenario that you described is this, and it all hinges really on Saturday. ‘SC beating Oregon, you know, and then ‘SC not making it to the Big Ten Championship and things going as scripted in it being Ohio State and Indiana,” Davis said. “Then ‘SC has a Notre Dame head-to-head problem, which has a Miami head-to-head problem, which has, if you’re going with all these other ones, an Alabama overall resumé problem, which has a head-to-head problem with Oklahoma, you know. So, I think that would probably be the scenario that you described.

“And there could be other things to open a spot, but I think that would be the scenario that you would describe where Oregon falls out of the mix and probably is flirting with that cut line. Because I think an Oregon loss to ‘SC on Saturday drops them behind most, not all, but drops them below the other two-loss teams that are in the field at the moment.”

Thamel also added that it might not even take a loss by the Ducks this weekend. Oregon could win tomorrow afternoon over Southern Cal, but still lose the following game at Washington, mentioning that the Huskies have won 25 of 26 at home in Seattle, and it would essentially result in a similar problem for the Big Ten.

A lot still needs to get sorted out seeding-wise over the next two weeks as far as the College Football Playoff. But Davis and Thamel laid out a path or two that aren’t that improbable, and would be pretty disastrous if it played out that way, even if they had two of the top overall teams in the field, for the Big Ten.