The most important 2023 conference game for every Big Ten program this fall
Every Saturday is important, right? Every college football coach utters the same weekly cliche about how their team is taking it game-by-game, and no one 60 minutes is bigger than the next.
Folly.
That’s a fine sentiment for coaches and players, but for fans and media, some games are more significant than others — particularly in the final season of the four-team playoff.
The rest of this week, I’m looking at the most paramount conference games for each Power 5 program. I started with the SEC and today we roll out the Big Ten.
Reminder: A team’s most important game could be a rivalry. But it could also be a trap game on the schedule or potential upset spots. Just because one team’s most important game may be against your alma mater though, doesn’t mean it’s the most significant conference matchup for your favorite school.
The most important 2023 Big Ten conference games:
Illinois — Sept. 30 at Purdue
The Fighting Illini nearly won the Big Ten West last fall, but a close loss to the Boilermakers spoiled Bret Bielema’s hopes of winning a division title in Year 2.
While Illinois isn’t among the favorites to get to Indy in 2023, it still returns a solid squad, especially along the defensive line. Bielema will square whits against a familiar face, too, as his former heralded DC Ryan Waters is now the head coach at Purdue.
Considering last year’s result, coupled with the boss vs. mentor matchup, Illinois needs to win this game — even if it’s in West Lafayette.
Indiana— Oct. 21 vs. Rutgers
Tom Allen is among the coaches facing the most pressure in 2023, and while Indiana has hit the transfer portal hard this offseason in hopes of repeating its surprising success of the 2020 COVID season, the Hoosiers are likely in store for a very tough autumn.
They’re guaranteed another brutal fall if they lose to Rutgers for the third straight season, though. Allen needs to beat the Scarlet Knights in 2023. The Hoosiers have a brutal five-game stretch of at Maryland, at Michigan, vs. Rutgers, at Penn State and vs. Wisconsin — with the game against Rutgers the only time they’ll be favored.
Iowa — Oct. 14 at Wisconsin
The Hawkeyes and the Badgers are the two frontrunners to win the Big Ten West in the final season of divisions, and this fall might be Kirk Ferentz’s best — and final chance to win another conference championship.
But to do so would likely require winning in Madison first — something Iowa hasn’t done since 2015. The Hawkeyes beat the Badgers 24-10 last season and have won the Heartland Trophy two of the last three years.
Maryland — Sept. 23 at Michigan State
Under head coach Mike Locksley, the Terrapins have slowly but surely climbed their way out of the basement of the Big Ten and developed into a team that currently sits as the No. 4 program in the brutal East Division.
Will that still be the case come the end of the 2023 season? It might depend on what happens when Maryland travels to Michigan State in late September. The Terps beat the Spartans last fall, but they haven’t won in East Lancing since Harry Truman was President.
If they want to hold that No. 4 spot — or perhaps even level up with an upset against one of the Big 3 — then they’ll need to do something they haven’t done in 73 years first.
Michigan — Nov. 25 vs. Ohio State
The Wolverines are the reigning back-to-back Big Ten champs, beating the hated rival Buckeyes in both seasons en route to the league title. Jim Harbaugh believes this is the best and deepest team he’s had since returning to his alma mater, and the Wolverines are positioned to do something they haven’t done in over a quarter century — win three straight games vs. Ohio State.
Entering the fall, Michigan has fewer questions than the Buckeyes and they get OSU at home this season. A win would mean serious pressure on Ryan Day but also give Harbaugh another year’s worth of material to crow about.
Michigan State — Nov. 4 vs. Nebraska
The Spartans are looking for a rebound season after going 5-7 in 2022. They have six home games this fall — and their final game in Spartan Stadium in 2023 just might determine whether they go bowling or not in Year 4 under Mel Tucker.
MSU ends the season with back-to-back road games at Ohio State and Indiana before finishing the year against Penn State in a neutral site game at Ford Field in Detroit. It would behoove Tucker to beat Nebraska in Matt Rhule’s first season — particularly for a head coach already facing mounting heat.
Minnesota — Aug. 31 vs. Nebraska
After winning nine games in consecutive seasons with two of the easier schedules in the Big Ten, the bill has come due for PJ Fleck and the Gophers this fall.
Minnesota draws Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State from the East in the final season of divisions, and the Gophers play at Iowa — a rival they’ve lost to in eight straight years.
So starting the season 1-0 looks mighty important, especially considering Nebraska will be breaking in a new QB and more than 40 new faces on its roster.
Nebraska— Nov. 24 vs. Iowa
I was tempted to double down and make Nebraska’s most important game its Week 1 matchup against Minnesota, particularly because it’s an opportunity for Matt Rhule to set the tone on a new tenure right out of the gate.
But the Cornhuskers’ Black Friday matchup against Iowa looms larger because of the rivalry and potential stakes. Nebraska actually beat the Hawkeyes last year and this year’s battle for the Heroes Trophy could be the difference between NU snapping its bowl-less streak (since 2016) and whether or not Brian Ferentz matches the silly points-per-game metric in his contract.
Northwestern — Sept. 2 at Rutgers
It won’t take long to find out what happens when a moveable force meets a very stoppable object for two programs battling to avoid the basement of the Big Ten.
Northwestern upset Nebraska in Ireland in last season’s opener, only to lose 11 straight games. The schedule isn’t quite as daunting this fall, but Pat Fitzgerald’s team could use a cathartic wipe-the-slate-clean victory to start the 2023 season. Northwestern is 2-0 against the Knights since Rutgers joined the Big Ten.
Ohio State — Nov. 25 at Michigan
Ryan Day is 45-6 as the head coach of the Buckeyes, yet losing two straight to their rival up north has OSU faithful more than angsty heading into the 2023 season.
Ohio State plays at Notre Dame and Wisconsin and hosts Penn State in mid-October, but unmistakably, a trip to Ann Arbor is the most important game for OSU this fall. The Game will most likely determine who goes to the Big Ten Championship and play for an opportunity to win a national title — something Michigan did in 1997 the last time the Wolverines won three straight in the series.
Penn State — Nov. 11 vs. Michigan
The Nittany Lions are looking to reach the Big Ten Championship for the first time since 2016, but to do so means at least splitting games against Michigan and Ohio State. That year, PSU upset the No. 2 Buckeyes at home and was blown out early in the season in a trip to Ann Arbor.
The schedule is flipped this fall though, with Michigan going to Happy Valley in early November. James Franklin is 0-4 against Michigan and Ohio State the last two seasons, so a win in a potential East elimination game would be a real boon for a program eyeing big things in 2023.
Purdue — Sept. 23 vs. Wisconsin
Ryan Walters drew the short end of the stick for his debut season at Purdue, as the Boilermakers arguably have the most difficult schedule in the Big Ten in 2023. They have a four-game stretch starting in early October where they go to Iowa, vs. Ohio State, at Nebraska and at Michigan.
So conference victories could be tough to come by in Year 1 for Walters, which is why his inaugural Big Ten game vs. Wisconsin could be a real opportunity to engender some goodwill with a new fan base. Purdue has lost a ridiculous 18 straight games to Wisconsin, but it does get the Badgers at home and early enough on the schedule where their new “Dairy Raid” still might not be operating at warp speed just yet.
Rutgers — Sept. 2 vs. Northwestern
While the Scarlet Knights weren’t as bad overall as the Wildcats in 2022, they too one just a single Big Ten conference game last season. Similarly, this year’s opener is an opportunity to set a new tone for Greg Schiano & Co.
The Week 1 matchup is at home and likely will be the lone conference game the Knights are favored in all season. With three other non-conference home games in September — all three winnable — a victory against Northwestern could establish some early momentum for the floundering program.
Wisconsin — Oct. 14 vs. Iowa
In a mid-October matchup in Madison, the two preseason Big Ten West favorites could determine who has a leg-up (and importantly the tie-breaker) to get to Indy this fall.
Under first-year head coach Luke Fickell, the Badgers could (should?) be 5-0 when they welcome the Hawkeyes to town. They haven’t lost to Iowa at home in eight years.