Upset Alert: Which college football teams could be in danger of falling in Week 13

Just two weeks remain in the college football regular season. This time of year, everyone is looking for a good upset to completely shake up the College Football Playoff picture, and we have seen plenty throughout the years.

Josh Pate outlined a few that could occur over Week 13 on Thursday’s Josh Pate’s College Football Show. He brought out the Upset Alert Meter to give his thoughts on six games to watch for. Spanning as low as 2.5 and as high as 10, some drama could unfold on Saturday.

Miami at Virginia Tech

“Miami has got to go scorched earth,” Pate said. “They’re favored by 17.5 here. They’ve got to go scorched earth; they need style points. I hate that that exists but it does exist right now for them. They need to score in bunches and let the chips fall where they may.”

Pate is not too worried about Miami dropping this one, putting a four on the Upset Alert Meter. In a world where the College Football Playoff is the main focus, he likes Miami to score a ton of points to send a message to the committee.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is on the outside looking in when it comes to the College Football Playoff. Already having two losses, winning out is required for Clark Lea‘s squad. Those stakes are enough for Pate to believe Vandy gets the job done.

“I’m going to put a 6.5 on this,” Pate said. “Vandy plays these tight games but the schedule dynamic plus the tight rope walk that is Playoff contention in November leads me to believe they’ll get the job done. But it is a hot Kentucky team.”

Michigan at Maryland

“You know it’s the biggest look-ahead spot the sport has to offer because they’ve got Ohio State coming in there,” Pate said. “The difference is, this isn’t like Auburn, where their season is down the drain and they’ve got a rivalry game coming up which is going to be their Super Bowl. Michigan can still make the Playoff, Michigan can still win the Big Ten. This is a conference game. So, theoretically, they should be dialed in.”

Two things could occur for Maryland, which makes this a five on the Upset Alert Concern Meter for Pate. Malik Washington puts together a career day and the turnover luck favors the Terps.

Kansas State at Utah

Another team in a “must-win” spot, Pate believes Utah can “taste” the CFP. Coming in at No. 11 in Tuesday’s rankings, the opportunity to sneak in as an at-large team is certainly there. As for Kansas State, the “average” defense (from a statistical standpoint) will not be enough to strike any fear into the Utes.

“I’m going to put a 2.5 on the Upset Alert Concern Meter here,” Pate said. “Crazier things have happened but I don’t see it.”

BYU at Cincinnati

“Brigham Young, the edge in turnover margin. They’ve got the edge in time of possession. They’re a huge time of possession team… Brigham Young, the less penalized team. Those factors matter here. I actually ended up picking the Cougars to win the game.”

The Upset Alert Meter sits at a seven in this one. Cincinnati might be the home team, which, not too long ago, was in the Big 12 title picture. Two straight losses might have changed things but a competitive one should be en route.

Tennessee at Florida

Tennessee has not gone into the Swamp and won in over two decades. So, Florida might be down as a program, and Josh Heupel might hold a ton of advantages on paper. Pate is going to assume nothing considering the venue, cranking the Upset Alert Meter to an eight.

“When you haven’t won in a building since the George W. Bush administration and you’ve been playing down there every other year since then, you don’t get anything assumed about you. So, I assume chaos here.”

Pitt at Georgia Tech

“I’m just going to go ahead and tell you this is a 10 on the Upset Alert Concern Meter,” Pate said. “It’s possible the wrong team is favored here. ‘Well, Josh, Notre Dame took care of Pitt last week.’ Yeah, Georgia Tech is not Notre Dame, firstly. Secondly, it wasn’t a must-win game. Did you listen to Pat Narduzzi? This is a must-win game.”

Pate specifically looked at Georgia Tech’s pass defense, ranking just over 100th in the country. Quite a stark contrast from Notre Dame’s defense and an area Pitt could take advantage of. All alarm bells should be going off in Atlanta with massive ACC implications on the line.

Arkansas at Texas

“There’s going to be a lot of passing here from both teams,” Pate said. “That inserts a lot of turnover variance. I don’t know what state of mind I’m going to get Texas in. They’re coming off the Georgia game and everyone’s talking about the (Texas) A&M game. Arkansas, just sneaking in there.”

Pate has an eight on the Upset Alert Meter for this one. Besides the factors mentioned, he is looking for turnovers to be the difference here. While Texas has done well there throughout the season and Arkansas has not, he reminds people a standalone Saturday can be quite different.