Using JT Toppin, Caleb Wilson injuries as test case for NCAA Tournament selection committee's process

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee sees a mountain of information from across college basketball each season, ultimately narrowing the field it down to a 68-team format by mid-March. Destined to create controversy no matter the outcome, this group faces a near-impossible task each spring.

However, the process has evolved over recent years, providing more clear criteria. The NCAA has gone to an analytic-based model which takes the strength of results and efficiency into account, creating a baseline to compare teams with similar data.

The issue now is not only an overload of data, but the inability to account for certain factors without diverting from the conversation. The need to let humans sort through it all leaves fanbases to make their own case over others, regardless of what other numbers say.

Check out On3’s latest 2026 bracketology projections here.

With criticism over the process always present, there is one storyline which could impact the bracket from top to bottom based on the view of committee members in conversation. The seeding of North Carolina and Texas Tech could set the tone for the entire field.

JT Toppin injury

Texas Tech star, and first-team All-American, JT Toppin suffered a season-ending knee injury on February 17, just before the Selection Committee put together a preview Top 16 list. They did not seem to ding the Red Raiders for the loss of a cornerstone, but also lacked a significant slice of data without him.

Since Toppin’s injury, Texas Tech is 3-3 in the Big 12. They picked up a Q1 win over Iowa State, a Q2 win over Cincinnati, and a Q3 win over Kansas State. However, they dropped a Q1 game against Arizona State on the night of the ACL tear, then finished the regular season on a two-game losing streak against Q2 TCU and Q1 BYU.

Far from the lofty standard for teams in the mix for a Top 16 overall seed since they lost Toppin, the Selection Committee must now sort through a combination of factors. What weight does the post-Toppin stretch carry against the overall body of work, and should the team come up in pods based on overall resume or the recent run?

“What we will try to do is essentially to decide what we think the impact is — and apply it appropriately,” NCAA Tournament Selection Committee chair Keith Gill said on a Wednesday teleconference. “I think that’s for, obviously the team that lost the player — or lost the player and got the player back — or whatever that scenario is, but it’s also for their opponents…

“We try to put context around their resume and their body of work. And in some cases, we actually have a good sample of teams playing without their star player that will certainly inform those decision. Others, we’re going to have to kind of project and make some kind of determinations.

Where Texas Tech and many others will land ultimately come down to a general philosophy which must develop in the room. It will then trickle down the bracket, as each team’s injury situation must be viewed through the same lens.

Caleb Wilson injuries

North Carolina faces its own unique injury dilemma entering Selection Sunday, with star freshman Caleb Wilson now out with a second injury. After reports that he planned to return for postseason action, even with a cast, an injury to his opposite thumb shut down hope.

The Tar Heels were a difficult team to evaluate in recent weeks, as they first played without Wilson and starting center Henri Veesaar. They then got their big man back, but played with the understanding Wilson would return by the NCAA Tournament in come capacity.

The uncertainty about what percentage he would return left it up in the air whether Selection Committee members would view the non-Caleb Wilson games as a significant data point or outlier.

Now, with him out for the season, the information becomes more important. North Carolina is 5-2 since the February 10 injury. That includes a 1-1 stretch with Veesaar sidelined. The lone loss since the latter’s return came on the road against No. 1 Duke.

The data does not suggest a massive falloff in results after the Wilson injury, however the eye test and common sense would suggest that the Tar Heels are not quite the same team without their best player. Much more difficult that the argument with Toppin, the Selection Committee must determine whether that matters to seeding, or just in how fans pick their bracket.

“It’s more art than science,” said Gill. “But we are certainly going to apply it — make sure that we use the right context to evaluate all the results that we’re going to be considering.”

What it all means

Without a clear data points to point to when debating the impact of one player’s injury on a team’s total resume, there is room for debate across the NCAA Tournament field. As two of the first instances where the members will need extensive conversation, where North Carolina and Texas Tech land in the bracket should guide the bubble conversation below.

“I really think all-of-the-above,” Gill said on the time and space the Selection Committee will take injuries into account. “When we do our conference monitoring — when we walk through each conference and the teams in each conference — we talk about the injuries and the impact at that moment. So we do it, obviously, in a broad sense.

“But obviously, when we’re discussing individual teams and comparing teams and doing those things, those conversations will happen as well.”

Among the team’s hoping that a player’s involvement matters in both conversations, bubble candidate SMU stands out. The Mustangs have struggled in recent weeks without BJ Edwards in the backcourt. However, he is currently expected to return.

The ability to limit the time and energy spent on a four-game losing streak at the end of the regular season would greatly benefit SMU, which sat above the bubble conversation before that. On the other hand it, is unlikely the Selection Committee will go far outside where the complete body of work leaves them.

Selection Sunday is now just four days away, and all the answers to these questions and more will become national talking points in the days leading up to the action. Then, it’s all March Madness.