What should we expect from Oklahoma in 2023?
On the heels of their first losing season since 1998, expectations are a bit all over the map for the Oklahoma Sooners in 2023.
In their final season in the Big 12, Oklahoma finished third in the media poll behind Kansas State and Texas, the overwhelming preseason pick to win the league. It’s the lowest OU has been ranked in the league since 2015.
The Sooners, which last won the conference in 2020, garnered as many first-place votes as Texas Tech — four.
And yet, Oklahoma has the same preseason win total as Texas — 9.5 — and a second-year head coach who seems quite optimistic his program will return to championship contention as soon as this season.
“If we just get better on defense, we’re gonna win 10-plus games and have a chance to compete and hang a banner up at the end of the year,” Brent Venables said to a group of OU fans this offseason, according to The Athletic.
That’s one big ‘if,’ and it’s hardly the lone question surrounding Venables’ team in 2023.
Is the defense fixed? Will the Sooners be better in close games? Has the kicking situation improved?
Also, is a roster that’s been dramatically flipped in two seasons — OU has signed (prep + transfers) 79 players in Venables’ first two recruiting classes — ready to win now or will it need more time to marinate to develop cohesion and chemistry?
While the Sooners have an eye on the future with their impending move to the SEC, what they do in the present will go a long way in determining what sort of runway they’ll enter the new league in 2024.
And make no mistake, there’s a known sense of urgency in Norman right now.
The Sooners must rebound quickly from last season’s 6-7 disaster, and they will, but to what extent? An 8-4 season against a Big 12 schedule that doesn’t include Kansas State, Texas Tech or Baylor won’t provide the program with much momentum joining a league that’s much more talented and has some of the nation’s best teams.
Venables needs to be right. They need to win 10+ games and compete for the Big 12 trophy this fall.
Can they?
The schedule is set up for OU to make a run at it at least. The Sooners got out of their non-conference game against Georgia. Two of their conference road games are against Big 12 newcomers Cincy and BYU. They miss three of the better teams in the league and get TCU at home.
OU should be fine offensively this fall. Jeff Lebby is back as OC, and while I don’t believe the Sooners will be a Top 10 offense like their days under former head coach Lincoln Riley, Dillon Gabriel is one of the better quarterbacks in the Big 12. Importantly, Gabriel actually has a suitable backup this season, too, in 5-star signee Jackson Arnold. The Sooners have a pair of capable sophomore tailbacks, and wideout Jalil Farooq (who flashed explosive abilities in a secondary role in 2022) is positioned to be Gabriel’s top target this fall. There are some concerns along the offense line, but transfers like Walter Rouse and Caleb Shaffer should offer some needed depth.
Venables is on record earlier this offseason saying he expects Oklahoma “to be on another planet defensively” in 2023, and considering the Sooners were cataclysmically awful last season, simply coming back to Earth would be a welcomed sight for OU fans.
For those who may have forgotten: OU was historically terrible on defense under a coach who had Top 10 units in six of eight seasons at Clemson. The Sooners ranked No. 122 in total defense and No. 100 nationally in scoring — the worst of Venables’ career. They allowed the most first downs in the nation. They had the second-most missed tackles in the Big 12. They got ran for more than 40 points five times.
Venables pounded the portal for immediate help, adding eight transfer — five edge/DL players. The most intriguing addition is Indiana Freshman All-American Dasan McCollough, a 6-5, 230-pound Swiss Army knife who figures to line up all over the field for the Sooners. A pair of 5-star freshmen (edge rusher Adepoju Adewawore and safety Peyton Bowen) should also contribute this fall.
Importantly, the Sooners believe their returning starters on defense — eight in total led by All Big-12 linebacker Danny Stutsman — will be better in Year 2 in Venables’ system. They understand the expectations and scheme and have spent the last 12 months focusing on improving their physicality and fundamentals.
Depth, especially along the interior DL, remains an issue, but the overall unit has the potential to at least be serviceable in 2023.
Which is why, not unlike Texas, Oklahoma’s season may be determined by how it performs in close games.
“We’ve got to learn not to lose to Oklahoma,” Venables told ESPN on Thursday at Big 12 Media Days.
The Sooners were 0-5 in one-score games in 2022. In their six wins, they never trailed once. In their seven losses, four came by three points — and they missed a field goal in all four defeats. Zach Schmit returns as kicker, and the junior has to be better than he was a year ago (12 of 18 on field goals), but he was hardly the lone issue.
The defense couldn’t get stops. OU’s offense was bad in the clutch, too. As a team, the Sooners failed to finish in games against Baylor, West Virginia and Texas Tech.
In advance of their final season in the Big 12, it’s clear the Sooners are no longer the dominant program in the conference. In recent years, they’ve regressed toward the rest of the league, and while last season was a true outlier compared to nearly two decades of success, there’s no guarantee Oklahoma will suddenly return to the top of the standings in 2023.
But if — and again, it’s a lot of big ‘ifs’ — the Sooners are better defensively and don’t choke away several November wins, then they will be in the mix for one last Big 12 trophy before their move to the SEC.