McAreavy: What the nine-game SEC schedule means for Mizzou
The Southeastern Conference announced Thursday it would join the Big 10 and Big 12 in playing a nine-game conference schedule. With the SEC’s announcement, the Atlantic Coast Conference is likely to make the same change. Leveling the criteria for a potential change to the College Football Playoff format in future seasons.
The new SEC schedule will start in 2026.
“Adding a ninth SEC game underscores our universities’ commitment to delivering the most competitive football schedule in the nation,” SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey said in the conference’s press release. “This format protects rivalries, increases competitive balance, and paired with our requirement to play an additional Power opponent, ensures SEC teams are well prepared to compete and succeed in the College Football Playoff.”
As Sankey mentioned in that quote, the move also ensures each SEC team will play at least one team from the ACC, Big 10 or Big 12 (or Notre Dame) in out-of-conference play each season. Meaning every SEC team will play at least 10 power-conference games per season.
The release also notes:
- “The SEC wil continue with a single-standings, non-divisional structure;”
- “Each school will play three annual opponents focused on maintaining many traditional rivalries;”
- “Each team’s remaining six games will rotate among the remaining conference schools; and”
- Each team will face every other SEC program at least once every two years and every opponent home and away in four years.”
“The SEC has established itself as the leader in delivering the most compelling football schedule in college athletics,” Sankey said. “Fans will see traditional rivalries preserved, new matchups more frequently, and a level of competition unmatched across the nation.”
Non-conference schedule
So, what does all of that mean for Missouri?
First off, a schedule change, of course. Right?
Luckily for the Tigers, they already pushed back the restart of the Braggin’ Right series. It will begin in 2027 and run through 2029, then pick back up for 2033-2035.
This change works perfectly with the current Border War setup. The teams will play this year and in 2026, then again in 2031 and 2032.
Almost like the Tigers knew this schedule change was coming and pushed the Illinois series back a year so as not to play 11 power-conference games in 2026.
Missouri will play the Border War, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Troy in 2026. So really, there’s no change needed for next season. That necessary one has already happened.
There will have to be changes down the line. The Tigers have agreements for four non-conference games in 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031 and 2033 already.
But the only year where a power-conference game is likely to be axed is 2031. The Tigers are slated to host the Border War and play at Colorado that year.
In 2027, the Tigers will host Illinois State, Illinois and Florida Atlantic, plus they will go on the road to San Diego State. One of the non-Illinois games is likely to be bought out.
In 2028, the schedule is to host San Diego State, Southeast Missouri and Northern Illinois, plus play at Illinois. Again, an easy cut.
The 2029 season includes hosting Missouri State and Illinois, playing at Northern Illinois and hosting Army. I expect Army will get cut.
The 2030 season has the Tigers hosting Southeast Missouri, Colorado and Florida Atlantic, and playing at North Texas. If the Tigers axe the Southeast Missouri series, that clears the issue in two seasons.
The 2031 season has the issue of both the Border War and at Colorado, as well as at Florida Atlantic and hosting North Texas. I expect there can be an agreement to push the Colorado series to a later year. Same with BYU which is slated to start in 2035 when the Tigers still have Illinois on the docket.
There’s a long time to get all of that figured out.
SEC schedule
In my eyes, the three expected annual Tiger opponents are Arkansas, Oklahoma and South Carolina.
I am yet to confirm that and will update when I do.
The other possibilities are Texas A&M if the conference wants to try to reignite some old Big 12 hatred. Or possibly Vanderbilt or Kentucky.
Those other possibilities likely slot in instead of South Carolina. I see Arkansas and Oklahoma as locks.
Though I expect the SEC will want to keep South Carolina as a Missouri annual opponent for the Mayor’s Cup.
Why?
Why is it happening?
Because the SEC has been talking so much about strength of schedule and why the conference deserves to have the most teams make the CFP each year.
Like we just saw with basketball, the conference’s expansion to include Oklahoma and Texas has made the SEC a perpetual-strength-of-schedule machine.
BetMGM already had the top 11 teams in strength of schedule coming from the SEC. And Missouri was the lowest of the 16 teams at No. 20.
With this move, I think you could see all 16 SEC teams at 1-16 in strength of schedule just about every single season.
Just one day before the conference announced the decision, the CFP announced its selection committee will begin putting greater emphasis on strength of schedule to determine the playoff field.
This all plays in with the SEC pushing for a CFP expansion that includes as many at-large bids as possible.
Not only will this certainly mean the SEC has more negotiating power in TV contracts (though the conference’s deal with ESPN did just begin in 2024 and runs through 2033), it also turns the conference into an unstoppable strength of schedule machine that will help push even more teams into the CFP each season.
The move guarantees eight more losses throughout the conference slate, but I think it will work in the conference’s favor in CFP selection committee talks.
Let me know what you think of the change in our story thread.
