Softball America Composite Analytics: Super Regionals

The NCAA Regionals provided everything you would expect. Exciting upsets, great finishes, and dominating performances were the consistent themes of the weekend. Now, we’ve whittled the field of 64 down to 16. The 16 teams still have their dream of making it to Oklahoma City and the Women’s College World Series. We will again break down each matchup and provide some matchups to watch, as well as predictions on which eight teams will advance.

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Eugene Super Regional

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How They Got Here

Both teams needed every game to make it to Super Regional play. Oregon had a rough Winner’s Bracket game in which they were run-ruled by Stanford 14-1. However, they came back to double-dip the Cardinal on Sunday, 15-5 and 10-7. After failing to capitalize on their opportunity last year, Liberty seized full control this year. After losing a big lead in game one against Texas A&M on Sunday, the Flames returned to capture a 5-4 decision.

Matchup to Watch

The Scoreboard at Jane Sanders Stadium. Both teams scored runs in bunches and couldn’t get the opposition out with any regularity. Oregon averaged 8.6 runs per game while Liberty averaged 7 runs per contest. Lyndsey Grein has a 4.47 ERA, and Elena Escobar had a 6.36 ERA this weekend for the Flames. It could very well be a matter of how the depth of each staff performs.

Prediction

Oregon. Liberty is definitely the feel-good story here. However, if the trend holds, I’m not sure that Liberty can keep up in a shootout. This has the feel of a series that goes a third and deciding game. However, the Ducks make it to OKC.

Norman Super Regional

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How They Got Here

Both teams swept their way in Regional play. The Sooners blasted their way to a combined 33-3 scoring advantage in three five-inning run rules over Boston and California. Comparatively, the Crimson Tide faced a tougher opponent but was still able to win a couple of one-run games against Virginia Tech to advance to Norman.

Matchup to Watch

Catelyn Riley and Jocelyn Briski versus the Oklahoma Offense. The duo of Briski and Riley held Oklahoma to a .190 batting average and only gave up five earned runs in the three-game series. The chess match of adjustments between two of the best coaches in the game will be intriguing. This is a matchup that the Sooners desired after their poor performance in April.

Prediction

Oklahoma. Admittedly, the Sooners struggled with the environment at the Rhoads House in the first tough road environment for a young team. Now, the situation is reversed, and this series is at Loves Field, where the Sooners have only lost to Tennessee this season. Oklahoma gets its revenge, and the quest for five straight National Championships remains alive.

Gainesville Super Regional

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How They Got Here

Similar to the Sooners, Florida was dominant in three five-inning run-rule wins by a score of 30-6. The Gators smashed six home runs, and three of those were hit by Taylor Shumaker. Conversely, Georgia had to scrap and claw their way to advance in the Durham Regional. The Bulldogs scored one in the 7th to extend the game and three in the 8th for the upset win.

Matchup to Watch

Georgia pitchers keeping the ball in the ballpark. Lilli Backes and Randi Roelling have given up a total of 40 home runs this year. The Gators have hit 103 home runs, which is sixth in the country. Something has to give, and which one will it be?

Prediction

Florida. When you look at this series on paper, the Gators should win in a landslide. However, the Gators have underperformed at times this year. You couple that with the fact that Georgia is a confident team right now. These two teams have not played each other this year, but are still very familiar. Florida just has too much offense.

Fayetteville Super Regional

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How They Got Here

The Razorbacks erased a four-run deficit to Oklahoma State in Saturday’s Winners Bracket game and then dominated Sunday in a 12-0 run-rule win to advance. Ole Miss scored 25 runs in their four games in the Tucson Regional. After getting beaten 10-1 in the first game on Sunday, the Rebels won 7-3 to advance to Fayetteville.

Matchup to Watch

Arkansas vs Arkansas. No, that’s not a typo. The biggest matchup in this Super Regional could be the Razorbacks exercising demons of the past. The Rebels are a formidable opponent, and you have to go no further than the opening series of SEC play when Ole Miss took two of three from Arkansas. However, both teams are much different now than they were in March.

Prediction

Arkansas. The Razorbacks have been here. Prohibitive favorites with a spot to reach the Women’s College World Series. Can they buck the trend and seize the moment? Either way, we will see one of these teams advance to OKC for the first time. The left arm of Robyn Herron is the difference this weekend.

Tallahassee Super Regional

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How They Got Here

After controlling the first two days of the Tallahassee Regional, Florida State found themselves in a win-or-go-home situation against Auburn on Sunday. They got brilliant performances from Ashtyn Danley and Jazzy Francik to shut down the Tigers. Comparatively, Texas Tech went undefeated and got by Mississippi State to advance to the Super Regionals.

Matchup to Watch

Florida State Offense vs Texas Tech Offense. Sure, the biggest game within the game is what the Seminoles can do against NiJaree Canady. But, with how good Florida State has been in the circle can’t the same be said for the other side? This feels like a series where three runs should win each game. Playing small ball and who can manufacture runs the best could be the story.

Prediction

Texas Tech. My first upset of the Super Regionals comes here. Florida State was one of my favorites coming into the NCAA Tournament until the pairings were announced. The Seminoles have the offense to win, but it’s just so difficult to go against Canady in a best-of-three series. Texas Tech reaches Oklahoma City for the first time in a classic series in Tallahassee.

Austin Super Regional

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How They Got Here

Both Texas and Clemson swept their way to the Super Regionals. The Longhorns used their powerful bats to score 35 runs in three games to easily advance. Conversely, the pitching was fantastic for the Tigers as they gave up three runs in three games to make it to Austin.

Matchup to Watch

Texas Offense versus Clemson Pitching. Can Reese Basinger and Brooke McCubbin navigate the shark-infested waters that is the Texas offense? The Tigers will likely have some success offensively in this series. But, the navigation of the lineup that has home run hitters up and down will tell the tale of this Super Regional.

Prediction

Texas. Clemson is the hottest team in the country right now. They have only lost one game since April 5th. I think this series likely goes three games, but the Longhorns will have just too much offense for Clemson to emerge victorious.

Knoxville Super Regional

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How They Got Here

Tennessee’s pitching staff was fully displayed as the Lady Volunteers cruised through the Knoxville Regionals. Tennessee only gave up two runs in two games to the most explosive offense in the country. However, the Nebraska bats might be one of the hottest in the country. The Cornhuskers scored 32 runs in just 17 innings of play as they cruised to victory in the Baton Rouge Regional.

Matchup to Watch

Jordy Bahl versus Karlyn Pickens. As a softball fan and a fan of pitching, this is about as good as it gets. Bahl is the best two-way player in the country, and she will have more to say about whether Nebraska wins this series than most. However, Pickens is the most physically imposing figure in the circle today. She leads the country in ERA with a 0.90 and held Ohio State to just one run in nine innings of work. Something has to give.

Prediction

Tennessee. If the Lady Volunteers hadn’t lost in this same spot a year ago, I would pick Nebraska. Especially because it’s enticing for the intrigue that could follow with Jordy Bahl potentially pitching against her former team next week. But, the combination of Karlyn Pickens and Sage Mardjetko does just enough to keep the Cornhusker bats off balance.

Columbia Super Regional

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How They Got Here

Neither team was challenged in their respective Regional. Both teams allowed just two runs in three games each. South Carolina defeated Elon and swept through North Florida 3-0 and 8-0. UCLA was a little more impressive in outscoring their opponents 31-2 in three games.

Matchup to Watch

UCLA’s Power versus South Carolina pitch selection. The Bruins have hit 93 home runs this year, with 47 of those coming off the bat of Jordan Woolery and Megan Grant. How Sam Gress and Jori Heard navigate around those two hitters will be interesting. Comparatively, nearly 18% of South Carolina’s at-bats have resulted in walks, which is top 10 in the country. Whereas, just 7% of the at-bats against UCLA’s pitching have resulted in walks. The limitation of free passes could be the difference.

Prediction

South Carolina. This isn’t an upset from a seeding point of view, but it is in the minds of most. The Bruins own nearly every statistical advantage that you would look at to predict the winner. However, every time the Gamecocks have been counted out this season, they have risen to the occasion, and they do so again this weekend.