Bio Blast: Georgia Bulldogs

Adam Luckettby:Adam Luckett10/03/23

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Kentucky vs. Georgia Preview and Prediction

Kentucky is off to a 5-0 start in 2023 and just past the first test of the year with flying colors. The Wildcats are again undefeated and playing Georgia for first place in the SEC East. This has happened before.

In 2018 and 2021, Kirby Smart‘s team got the better of Mark Stoops and Kentucky. The Wildcats are hoping that the third time will go differently on Saturday night at Sanford Stadium. On paper, this Georgia team does look different.

There will be a significant SEC game played on Saturday night. ESPN has decided to plug this game into its featured prime-time spot. What will the Wildcats be facing? Let’s dive in and learn some more about Smart’s eighth team at Georgia who is chasing a third consecutive national championship.

Georgia might have the best player in college football again

In 2021, Georgia had a defense that was littered with pros as the Dawgs won a national title with overwhelming depth and talent. In 2022, there was not a better college football player than defensive tackle Jalen Carter. Kirby Smart‘s team might have the best player in college football again.

Brock Bowers led Georgia in receptions (56), receiving yards (882), and receiving touchdowns (13) as a true freshman quickly becoming this offense’s best weapon in the passing game. That remained the same in 2022 as Bowers again led the Dawgs in receptions (63), receiving yards (942), and receiving touchdowns (seven).

Guess what? He’s doing it again.

The two-time All-American leads the UGA offense in targets (40), receptions (30), receiving yards (413), and receiving touchdowns (three). After a slow start to the season, Bowers has seen 21 targets over the last two games as offensive coordinator Mike Bobo is featuring the unique weapon in his passing game. In a tough spot at Auburn last week, Bowers put the UGA offense on his back in the second half with six receptions for 148 yards and the game-winning 40-yard touchdown grab with just under three minutes left in the game.

When Georgia needed a play, the offense turned to No. 19. Kentucky must find a way to slow down UGA’s freak tight end on Saturday night. When the game gets tight, the ball is going to Bowers.

The pass defense is elite

In the secondary, Georgia returned multiple starters from last year’s team and entered the 2023 season with high expectations. Through five games, the Bulldogs might have the best pass defense in college football.

UGA’s pass defense ranks No. 3 in yards per attempt, No. 3 in interceptions, No. 3 in EPA/play, No. 4 in QB rating, and No. 14 in success rate. Only Spencer Rattler has reached north of 60 percent completion rate and 5.0 yards per attempt against this defense. The Bulldogs are getting after it when teams drop back to pass.

However, this defense is putting up these numbers without a stellar pass rush.

The Bulldogs do not have a great pressure rate (30.8%), only have eight sacks through five games, and do not appear to have that bendy edge rush that can turn the corner or the consistent interior rushers that can puncture the pocket. Instead, Georgia is winning with coverage and is not afraid to play with numbers in passing situations.

At safety, Malaki Starks is a true stud who leads the team in pass breakups (four) along with two interceptions. The former five-star recruit can cover a lot of ground in the backend. At the nickel spot, former West Virginia transfer Tykee Smith leads the team with three interceptions and has posted some stingy coverage numbers. Javon Bullard is overshadowed by both at safety but is a very good player. At cornerback, Kamari Lassiter and Daylen Everette have both been very good in coverage.

Kentucky needs to get the passing game going on Saturday. That could be difficult against this secondary.

Offensive balance

Georgia will always run to run the ball first under Kirby Smart, but this program has put up some strong passing game numbers in recent years. Stetson Bennett IV threw for 4,127 yards on 9.1 yards per attempt last season. JT Daniels averaged 10.3 yards per attempt in 2020. Jake Fromm threw 78 touchdown passes from 2017-19. This program can throw the football.

That is no different this season.

First-time starter Carson Beck is completing 72 percent of his 32.2 passes per game on 9.3 yards per attempt. The redshirt junior owns a very efficient passing success rate (54.3%) and has 18 completions of 25-plus yards. Brock Bowers leads the way, but Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint is averaging over 17 yards per catch and the Bulldogs just got Ladd McConkey (93 career receptions) back in the lineup last week.

On the ground, Georgia has been somewhat less effective but still staying ahead of the chains (No. 19 in success rate). Things have looked better over the last three weeks with Daijun Edwards returning to the lineup. The true senior leads the team in carries (51), rushing yards (260), and rushing touchdowns (five). His efficiency (52.9% rushing success rate) has made a difference for a ground game that has yet to reach 200 yards rushing in a game this season.

Georgia has been starting games slow under new offensive coordinator Mike Bobo but this offense still ranks inside the top 25 in points per drive (No. 13), yards per play (No. 19), success rate (No. 21), and EPA/play (No. 21). This is still a good offense with balance.

Surprising run defense problems

Kirby Smart’s defenses have always been able to stop the run. For 2019-22, UGA led the SEC in yards per rush allowed. That streak is likely ending in 2023.

Entering Week 6, Georgia’s defense ranks No. 67 nationally and No. 9 in the SEC in yards per rush allowed (3.97). On Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn became the first team to rush for over 200 yards against a Georgia defense since 2018. The Tigers hurt the Bulldogs mostly with the QB run game, but it’s clear this group has taken a step back when it comes to fitting the run.

Georgia’s defense enters this game ranking No. 40 in rushing success rate and No. 77 in rush EPA/play. Kentucky leads the SEC in yards per rush (6.48) and ranks No. 7 in rush EPA/play. One of the biggest matchups entering Saturday night’s contest will be if Georgia can keep Kentucky’s explosive ground game in check.

For the first time in a long time, Georgia’s front seven looks vulnerable.

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2024-04-26