7 Questions facing Kentucky with 7 Regular-Season Games Left
Another big game in Rupp Arena, another opportunity lost. While sifting through the ashes of last night’s humiliating 88-73 defeat to the Arkansas Razorbacks, I came up with more questions than answers. As we brace for a stressful month, let’s run through them together, starting with the elephant in the room.
1. What’s up with Oscar?
For the second game in a row, Oscar Tshiebwe looked like a shell of himself, finishing with only seven points and seven rebounds vs. Arkansas, far below his season averages of 15.5 PPG and 13.3 RPG. Makhel Mitchell, the Razorback Oscar was tasked with guarding, finished with 15 points, 5 blocks, and 4 rebounds. Coming into the game, Mitchell, who has been dealing with a foot injury, averaged only four points per game.
The performance comes on the heels of a 4-point, 15-rebound outing vs. Florida. While the stat lines of these two games are glaring outliers, anyone with two eyes can tell you Oscar hasn’t really been himself all season. His 37-point, 24-rebound performance vs. Georgia on Jan. 17 seemed to indicate he was back to 100% after a slow recovery from a preseason knee procedure; however, since then, he’s reverted, looking lost and getting beat to balls he otherwise would own.
There have been other warning signs. The uncharacteristic flexes after dunks from early in the season morphed into dramatic gestures of frustration after foul calls. There was the time Oscar called out his teammates for their lack of fight vs. South Carolina and had to apologize. His defense, especially in the pick-and-roll, has been atrocious, to the point that teams exploit it on a routine basis. The defending national player of the year is becoming a liability for Kentucky, a disturbing sign as we enter the home stretch and the Cats must pick up wins to make the NCAA Tournament.
2. Will Kentucky’s defense EVER improve?
This goes along with No. 1. We’re 24 games into the season and teams are still exploiting Kentucky, or rather, Oscar, in the pick and roll. Looking at old posts, it’s an issue going back to last season. Last night, Arkansas’ Devontae Davis joined the chorus of opposing players and coaches (Lamont Paris, Nate Oates, Bill Self) who identified the pick-and-roll as a key to beating Kentucky.
“We came into the game wanting to attack the pick and roll. We knew that their coverages weren’t that good. Just knowing that Oscar wasn’t up to par on the pick-and-roll, so we knew that we wanted to just continue to just attack the goal and feed the bigs running down to the paint.”
Where are the adjustments? Calipari said he had a heart-to-heart with Oscar about pick-and-roll last week, but clearly, it didn’t work; if anything, it made things worse. Arkansas outscored Kentucky 46-28 in the paint. Over the next seven games, Oscar will go up against several capable bigs: Mississippi State’s Tolu Smith, Florida’s Colin Castleton, Tennessee’s Uros Plavsic, Auburn’s Johni Broome, and Vanderbilt’s Liam Robbins. You don’t think they’re going to use the blueprint on how to beat him?
It’s not just the pick-and-roll. Kentucky’s defense is bad across the board, from the rim to the perimeter. In fact, as Adam Luckett outlined earlier, numbers show this is the worst defense of the Calipari Era. Arkansas shot 62.7% last night, 72.0% in the second half. The last time Kentucky allowed a team to shoot at least 60% from the field was in 2007 vs. Florida.
Kentucky needs to win games right now, but as the performances vs. Kansas and Arkansas showed, the Cats are more often than not incapable of getting stops. Again, a horrible sign as we enter a must-win stretch.
3. Why not give someone else a chance?
Clearly, Oscar’s not playing well. Last night, another Wildcat was holding his own in the post vs. the Razorbacks: Daimion Collins. Collins scored a season-high seven points in just six minutes in the first half, his length giving the Razorbacks fits under the basket. His shot at the buzzer cut Arkansas’ lead to one at halftime. Yet, he only played two minutes in the second half, watching from the bench as Oscar and Jacob Toppin struggled and the Razorbacks ran away with the game.
The only thing more frustrating than Collins not playing may have been Calipari’s explanation for it. Calipari told reporters he stuck with Oscar in the second half in hopes he would break through.
“As a coach, you go with what got you there and I wanted to — it was a bigger picture for Oscar than just this game. It was like, let’s get him going just to get him right.”
Giving the defending national player of the year, who has won you so many games in the past, a little extra rein is understandable; however, in a game that Kentucky desperately needed for its resume, when does it become too much? And, on the flip side, shouldn’t some players (Collins, Antonio Reeves) get a little extra rein to play through their mistakes when they’ve proven they can contribute?
4. Will this team ever reach its potential?
Sahvir Wheeler was out last night after tweaking his right ankle in practice earlier this week. Cason Wallace missed the Ole Miss game last week with a knee contusion and has battled back spasms throughout the season. Before that, both Wheeler and Daimion Collins missed the Tennessee game with injuries. Jacob Toppin appeared to be limping during the game last night and afterward, we found out that CJ Fredrick is still dealing with a rib issue after colliding with a photographer under the basket on Saturday. Injuries, even minor ones, are mounting as we enter the home stretch, which feels like a bad flashback to last season.
My worry isn’t only that Kentucky may not reach full health this season; it’s that it won’t happen in time for this team to regain the cohesion and momentum they need to make the tournament. With different players out and others stepping up at various times, the lineup shuffle continues. The Basketball Bennies only played six minutes together last night, the most of any combo featuring both Reeves and Fredrick. Hopefully, Wheeler returns soon or it’s time to consider giving more minutes to Adou Thiero in case depth remains an issue in March.
At times, we’ve seen glimpses of what this group can be. Wallace has emerged as a clutch bucket-getter in recent weeks. Reeves can take over games with his shooting. Oscar, when he’s at his best, is unstoppable. Some issues last night aside, Toppin has played well as of late. Wheeler embraced his role as a spark off the bench. Livingston is finally coming into his own. Collins is showing flashes. Fredrick continues to struggle with his shot but brings leadership. Due to injuries and lineup swapping, will they ever get the chance to put all the pieces together?
5. Will Kentucky ever shoot more threes?
I feel like I need to pass the mic to my coworker Steven Peake for this one. A few weeks ago, our videographer detailed how John Calipari’s approach to the three-point shot has changed over the years, the ultimate point being that Cal’s teams don’t shoot enough threes.
Despite having three capable outside threats (Reeves, Fredrick, Wallace), the Cats only average 18.5 three-point attempts per game, which ranks 303rd in the country. That figure is far below Calipari’s early-season goal of 25 three-point attempts per game. It’s gotten worse as the season’s gone on, too. As Steven pointed out on Twitter, over the last five games, Kentucky has attempted 65 threes, an average of 13 per game. When Arkansas pulled away in the second half, Reeves, Kentucky’s leading three-point shooter, attempted — and missed — only one three in 16 minutes. Same for Fredrick. Wallace was 1-2 from behind the arc in the final 20 minutes.
6. Will I ever grow numb to seeing Kentucky lose big at Rupp?
God, I hope not. When Arkansas stretched the lead to 14 with about five minutes left, ESPN’s cameras panned to the stands to show fans hitting the exits. It was a surreal sight, especially considering how exciting the game was in the first half; but, I get it. I bet a fair number of you turned your TVs off at that point too. It was late. The writing was on the wall.
More troubling to me is that teams are coming into Rupp and 1) are not scared and 2) outplay the Cats on their own home floor. We saw it vs. Kansas a few weeks ago and again last night vs. Arkansas. Devo Davis — who gave us quite a few soundbites — put it bluntly when discussing the Razorbacks’ three-game winning streak vs. the Cats.
“We had confidence coming in here. I haven’t lost to Kentucky yet since I’ve been playing for Arkansas, so I for sure had some coming in. Just knowing that the last time I played in Rupp with a team two years prior to this year, we came in and won you know what I mean.”
Yeah, we know. And it sucks.
7. Will Kentucky run out of runway?
This is a question that will hang over our heads until Selection Sunday. Last night was a prime opportunity for Kentucky to improve its NCAA Tournament resume. Instead, the Cats collapsed in the second half, dropping their Quad 1 record to 1-7. There are only four Quad 1 games remaining in the regular season (five if Auburn climbs back into the Top 30 of the NET rankings); right now, Kentucky isn’t projected to win any of them.
The Cats are currently 16-8 with seven regular-season games to go. How many wins do they need and where do they come from?
- Feb. 11 (Sat.): at Georgia (Quad 2)
- Feb. 15 (Wed.): at Mississippi State (Quad 1)
- Feb. 18 (Sat.): vs. Tennessee (Quad 1)
- Feb. 22 (Wed.): at Florida (Quad 1)
- Feb. 25 (Sat.): vs. Auburn (Quad 2 – could become Quad 1)
- Mar. 1 (Wed.): vs. Vanderbilt (Quad 3)
- Mar. 4 (Sat.): at Arkansas (Quad 1)
Throughout his tenure at Kentucky, John Calipari has downplayed the importance of the SEC Tournament. Now, his team may need to win it all or at least get to Sunday to avoid another March without an NCAA Tournament victory.
Discuss This Article
Comments have moved.
Join the conversation and talk about this article and all things Kentucky Sports in the new KSR Message Board.
KSBoard