Kentucky vs. Georgia: How the Cats can pull off the upset

Here we go. The BBN, and this writer, wanted the Georgia game to matter with both teams entering the pivotal SEC East matchup with perfect records. That hope is now a reality. The 5-0 Dawgs are hosting the 5-0 Cats between the hedges and under the lights where the stakes will be as high as the beautiful Georgia pine trees. It’s not a stretch to say that UGA’s most challenging gatekeeper for another undefeated season will come this weekend against the defensive-minded Kentucky Wildcats.  

Georgia is the defending two-time national champions. Coach Kirby Smart has built quite the empire in the Peach State. It appears that UGA’s momentum isn’t slowing down. But, there is a difference in the 2023 Bulldogs compared to the championship squads of 2021 and ’22. Those teams were great. This year’s edition is very good. There is a difference.  

I don’t use the term “great” very often if you’re reading my stuff for the first time. Matter of fact, I think the word is too frequently utilized in the modern-day vernacular. That should tell you how special I thought those two Georgia teams were. Smart has recruited at an incredibly high level and his teams are always extremely well coached and disciplined. I have a tremendous amount of respect for the head coach and the Bulldog program. With that said, let’s get into Kentucky’s goals vs. the Dawgs.

OFFENSE 

The Kentucky run game exploded against Florida a week ago. Running back Ray Davis went for 280 yards and three scores on the ground in what turned out to be a complete domination by the Wildcat offense. UK averaged 7.7 yards per rushing attempt in the 33-14 victory over the once-imposing Gator defense. Additionally, the Kentucky offensive line can now be re-labeled as the old-school Big Blue Wall after the run-game performance and not allowing a QB sack last Saturday.  

Even though it wasn’t a necessity for the win, the passing game fell short. UK pass catchers are dropping as many as they are catching as of late. That must be cleaned up. UGA is too darn good to be one-dimensional, especially on the road. There is plenty of blame to pass around for the Cats’ throwing woes.  

One area that can’t be labeled as deficient in the equation is pass protection. Kentucky ranks first in the SEC, along with Georgia, by giving up just four QB sacks through five games. Twenty allowed tackles for loss ranks third in the league as well. The issue lies within the pitch-and-catch portion of the operation. This is an area that requires non-negotiable improvement if Kentucky is to make a serious run to Atlanta. That run must go through the Georgia Bulldogs.  

Auburn is the only opponent that had full intentions of running the football against the Dawgs. The Tigers successfully rushed for 219 yards and averaged 5.1 yards per carry. UGA is allowing 113 yards per game including a 4-YPC average. Teams are passing for 173 yards per outing but for a lowly 4.8 yards per pass attempt. In total, Georgia is giving up just 13 points per game which is good enough to be ranked first in the SEC. Let’s get into Kentucky’s goals.  

Average 5-Yards per Play in the First Quarter

Kentucky has started fast in its two SEC contests. The Cats have combined for a 37-0 advantage over Vanderbilt and Florida respectively. Georgia has been a slow-starting team in 2023. In its first two SEC contests, UGA has scored just 3 points and given up 17 to South Carolina and Auburn combined.  

Gaining over 5 yards per play in the first quarter and scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone could lead to an unsurmountable lead down the stretch. In other words, the Cats have to land the first haymaker and keep on swinging for four quarters. Momentum will play a factor in this one. A fast start could lead Smart’s team to press down the stretch. There’s a hell of a lot of pressure that comes when a team hasn’t lost a football game in 670 days.  

Score Touchdowns in the Red Zone

Opponents have scored 8 touchdowns out of 12 Red Zone attempts or 66.67% against the Georgia defense in 2023. Kentucky can’t settle for field goals and win this game. So, when the opportunity to push the football into the end zone from inside the 20-yard line occurs, the Cats must pounce.  

This has not been an area that Kentucky has excelled in through five contests. The Wildcats have recorded 11 touchdowns out of 17 RZ attempts for 64.71%. Georgia bends and breaks; this is not the norm in Athens and presents an opportunity for Liam Coen to get aggressive when close to the opposite goalpost. However, Devin Leary must account for Tykee Smith in this area of the field. The safety shares the lead in the SEC with three interceptions and is extremely active when the football nears the goal line.

Follow @KSRonX, KSR’s official Twitter/X account, for all the latest Kentucky Wildcats news, videos, and content.

DEFENSE

Offensive coordinator Todd Monken is now in Baltimore. Stetson Bennett IV has finished his nearly decade-long run in Athens. This is a different Georgia offense than when those two were in command. Mike Bobo now controls the play sheet and Carson Beck is under center. Offensive numbers remain excellent and near the top in many SEC categories; however, it looks and feels different. UGA hasn’t faced a defense quite like they’ll see against Kentucky.  

The Cats are giving up just 15 points and 297 total yards per contest. The run defense is surrendering 76 yards per game and just 2.5 per carry. Kentucky has sacked opposing quarterbacks on 14 occasions and recorded 32 tackles for loss to go along with 9 forced turnovers. Coordinator Brad White is considered the best in the league and arguably the top defensive playcaller in the nation.  

Bobo’s creativity is not at the same level as Monken’s. It’s just not, nor has it been necessary. Heck, very few can match Monken’s ability to scheme up ball plays. I thought he was brilliant in Athens and a monstrous contributor to the Dawg dynasty; that’s why he’s now in the NFL.  

UGA has been pass-heavy in 2023 by averaging 332 yards per outing compared to 149 on the ground. The Dawgs have rolled up 481 total yards and 39 points per game. Add in a 6.8-per-play average, and you’ll see a machine on paper. But again, it looks different than the previous two years.  

The Bulldog offensive line is one of the best in the nation. 6’4, 310-pound junior center Sedrick Van Pran is one of the best football players in the SEC. WR Ladd McConkey has played a bunch of important snaps throughout his career. He is back healthy after suffering from an injury to start the season and is money on sideline out-routes that frequently extend the chains for the Dawgs.  

QB Carson Beck is completing 72% of his passes and has thrown seven touchdowns compared to two interceptions. Kentucky will need to pressure the first-year starter and get him to the ground. I expect Brad White to roll coverages and present different looks that the quarterback has seen in 2023. The running back position is manned by multiple talented rushers as well.  

The overwhelming difference maker for this offense and in this game is No. 19, Brock Bowers. I’m no expert, but I think Bowers is the best college football player in America. The humble superstar has 30 receptions for 413 yards and registered three TD catches. Bowers can take over a game by blocking along the line of scrimmage from a traditional TE position, aligning in the backfield for FB-designed runs, and operating in the passing game from the slot.   

Georgia struggled to score points against Auburn a week ago. OC Bobo turned to Bowers and the junior led the Dawgs to an SEC road victory in a rivalry game after posting 8 receptions for 157 yards and a score. The Dawgs would have lost that one if No. 19 wasn’t on the field. It’s as simple as that. Let’s get into goals.  

Account for No. 19

See above. Brock Bowers is the best college football player in America. IF Kentucky can gain an early advantage, Bobo will simply turn to his All-American in an attempt to salvage the night much as he did at Auburn. Kentucky must be aware of Bowers at all times. Stopping the TE will be a nearly impossible task, but slowing his production could lead to a Wildcat upset.  

Football is an 11-man operation. This dude is THAT DUDE that can take over a game in a hurry. Put it this way, I still may take Kentucky to win the game straight up. But, I’d be much more comfortable with that prediction if No. 19 was in the NFL instead of between the hedges on Saturday night.  

Force the Dawgs into Certain Pass Downs

This may seem odd given Georgia’s 332 average pass yards per game to 149 on the ground, but it’s applicable for the overall outcome. The Dawgs still want to lean on the run to set up the pass. That area of the offense is underrated in my opinion. UGA is a physical team first and foremost.  Over 50% of Dawgs’ pass plays occur on first down and a high number of those throws come off play action. The Cats need to hold up on early downs in order to force the Dawgs into uncomfortable third-down snaps of 6+ yards.

SPECIAL TEAMS 

Turnover margin and special teams. Raise your hand if you’ve heard those two factors being the key to an SEC road win against a quality opponent. Well, both still apply. Here’s my goal for Saturday night.  

Play Clean 

Hey, I’m not asking for much here. Kentucky has been clean in the third phase for the vast majority of the 2023 season. Kentucky doesn’t have to win the contest on special teams. It simply can’t lose the game with an error-plagued third phase.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?  

Can Kentucky beat the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday night? Yes. Actually, I don’t think it would be that crazy of an upset. Strip the logos off the uniforms and I think the matchup is even on many levels. But, Georgia has 19 and Kentucky does not. Bowers is the best football player in the nation and one of the most complete athletes that I’ve seen in my lifetime.  

The defenses are a push; both can take over games and force the issue. The Georgia offensive line has a slight advantage and Carson Beck has enjoyed much cleaner play from his supporting cast than Devin Leary. The Dawgs also have championship and big-game experience. Smart’s team will be playing in front of a hungry and rowdy but classy fan base that will have hours to loosen up at the tailgate. They will bark, a lot.  

Let’s be honest for a minute. UGA’s schedule is comically simple in 2023. Home contests vs. Missouri and Ole Miss remain on the slate after Kentucky. This upcoming Saturday night could be the most electric environment of the season for the red, black, and silver-clad Dawg supporters. And, there’s more.  

Saturday night is going to be wild. Can the Cats handle the atmosphere? We’ll see. The Dawg faithful experience very few night games. National-level recruits will be on site. National television will be on the call for the fistfight that will take place in the Sanford Stadium phone booth. This game is a really big deal.  

Can the running game that Kentucky put on display against the Gators travel to Athens? We’ll see. Can UK pitch and catch? We’ll see. Can Brad White scheme up an answer for Brock Bowers? We’ll see.  

Georgia may run away with this one. Heck, nobody knows what’s going to take place when a bunch of 18-21-year-olds decide the fate of an athletic outcome on any given night. But, this version of Kirby Smart’s dynasty is less scarier than his prior two championship squads.  

I think Kentucky can win in Athens. The odds are stacked against the Wildcats to pull off the upset. Georgia hasn’t lost a football game in 670 days. That’s an incredible stretch of domination in today’s college football environment. I’m talking myself into picking the Cats to win. But, No. 19. Again, No. 19. We’ll see. You can find out on Saturday’s KSR Pregame Show.  

Got thoughts? Continue the conversation on KSBoard, the KSR Message Board. New members can try 1 month for $1.