Scouting Report: Florida Gators

It’s a big game week in the Bluegrass State. There is a major buzz around the Kentucky football program and the Saturday night contest against Florida is a sellout. The ball has been teed up and now it’s time to drive for the green.

However, Dan Mullen and the Gators will be on the opposite sidelines hoping to play spoiler for another big moment in Lexington.

The matchup between Kentucky and Florida is a game with major stakes in the SEC East. Let’s get ready for what could be a slobber knocker at Kroger Field.

Nuts and Bolts

After working as a graduate assistant at Syracuse in 1998, a 27-year-old Dan Mullen would join the Notre Dame football program as a graduate assistant working for head coach Bob Davie.

Why is this important? Because this is where the Mullen and Urban Meyer relationship was born.

Meyer was a wide receivers coach at Notre Dame from 1996-00 who would take the Bowling Green head coaching job in 2001 and bring Mullen with him. After a 17-6 record in the MAC, Meyer took the head coaching job at Utah and Mullen would once again join Meyer in Salt Lake City to coach the quarterbacks. After a 12-0 season with a BCS bowl win in 2004, Florida came calling.

Mullen would become an SEC offensive coordinator at the age of 33. The rest is history.

While in Gainesville, Mullen won a pair of national championships calling plays for Meyer as both Chris Leak and Tim Tebow played quarterback. The success at Florida would allow Mullen to become an SEC head coach at the age of 37.

In nine years at Mississippi State, Mullen went 69-46 and had the Bulldogs ranked No. 1 overall during the 2014 regular season with Dak Prescott at quarterback. Mullen turned the Bulldogs into consistent winners. Meanwhile, both Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain bombed at Florida going 48-36 from 2011-17 with plenty of bad offenses sprinkled in.

New athletic director Scott Stricklin decided to recapture some of the magic by bringing Mullen back to Gainesville. So far, this has turned out to be an excellent hire.

The Gators have a .762 winning percentage in 42 games under Mullen inching them closer to the .812 mark that Meyer posted in six seasons. Florida has finished in the top-15 in each of Mullen’s three years with an SEC East title and three New Year’s Six bowl appearances. However, the goal is a national championship in Gainesville.

Mullen has proven to be a truly elite offensive play-caller, but the recruiting at Florida has just not been on the same level as Alabama, Georgia, LSU for the most part. There is a reason that Florida is 2-6 against those three opponents under Mullen and 30-4 against everyone else.

The Gators are winning games, but the elite thirst is not going away as Mullen tries to break through to win the SEC and take Florida to their first College Football Playoff appearance.

This will be the 72nd meeting between the two programs with Florida owning a commanding 53-18 series lead. The Wildcats, of course, broke the 31-game winning streak with a victory at The Swamp in 2018. However, Kentucky is still looking for its first win at home over Florida since 1986.

Out in the desert, Florida is an 8-point favorite with a total of 55. That’s a projected final score of 31.5-23.5. On the year, the Gators are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and 1-3 on the over. The Wildcats are 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 on the over. Mark Stoops is 4-1-1 ATS when unranked and playing a ranked team at home since 2014.

Florida offense

In 2020, Florida had one of the best passing offenses in college football. Kyle Trask rank second nationally in passing yards (4,283) as the redshirt senior quarterback tossed for 43 touchdowns and averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt. The Gators had a top-15 scoring offense and a top-10 yards per play offense on a pass play rate of 57.33 percent that ranked in the top-10 nationally.

The Gators were pass-heavy as Trask deliver the ball to draft picks Trevon Grimes, Kyle Pitts, and Kadarius Toney. All of those guys have left and Dan Mullen has gotten back to his DNA. Florida is a run-first operation in 2021 with the quarterback heavily involved. This is a unit that is still putting up big numbers.

The Gators have the top non-service academy rush offense in college football. Florida ranks third nationally in rushing yards per game (322.5) and leads the country in yards per rush (7.46). This group is dominant and the Gators do it with a plethora of options.

Redshirt junior quarterback Emory Jones (No. 5) ranks fifth in the SEC in rushing yards (375) and is the key to the entire attack. The former top-100 recruit is finally getting a chance to start and is delivering on the ground with a 53.7 percent success rate in 54 non-sack rush attempts. Jones has 13 rushes on the season that have gone for over 10 yards. The 211-pound quarterback unlocks everything, but he’s getting plenty of help.

Florida uses a trio of tailbacks — Malik Davis (No. 20), Dameon Pierce (No. 27), Nay’Quan Wright (No. 6) — and this group has recorded 560 rushing yards on 91 attempts averaging 6.16 yards per rush. Together, this trio has a rushing success rate of 50.55 percent with 18 rushes of 10-plus yards. Davis leads the way in attempts (41), yards (257), and owns a robust 53.66 percent success rate.

Everything starts and ends with Florida on the ground. The Gators rank 28th nationally in run play percentage (59.45%) and lean on rushing efficiency to open up things in the passing game. When the run is established, Florida can beat you deep with a pair of talented receivers.

Both Jacob Copeland (No. 1) and Xzavier Henderson (No. 3) were top-100 recruits out of the state of Florida. The Gators won two major recruiting battles and now each is starting to show the potential on the perimeter. The outside wideouts have combined for 23 targets with a 78.3 percent catch rate and 65.2 percent success rate. The duo has 10 receptions over 15-plus yards this season and can create a big play at any moment.

Elsewhere, super senior slot receiver Rick Wells Jr. (No. 12) has been efficient on 16 targets while Penn State transfer and former five-star recruit Justin Shorter (No. 4) has just a 35.29 percent receiving success rate. The Gators will get the tight ends involved and the running backs have 20 targets through four games.

When not going to their top three options — Copeland, Henderson, Wells — this has been an inefficient passing attack. Jones has a 46.15 percent passing success rate which ranks in the bottom half of the SEC.

The biggest wild card for this game will be just how Mullen decides to use redshirt freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson (No. 15). The Gainesville, Fla., native has only played two games this season but has 275 rushing yards on 11 attempts and 192 passing yards on 11 throws with four total touchdowns. He’s been terrifying when on the field, but this has been produced in a very small sample size against two defenses that had bad rushing numbers through one month.

On the line of scrimmage, Florida has been solid on the offensive line but not great. Tackles Richard Gouraige (No. 76) and Jean Delance (No. 56) both have a lot of experience but left guard and former three-star recruit Ethan White (No. 77) might be the best player of the bunch. The Gators will get starting right guard and super senior Stewart Reese (No. 51) back in the lineup this week. This is a unit that is much improved in the run game.

Florida defense

Todd Grantham has been running defenses for a long time. Since 2017, the aggressive play-caller joined forces with Dan Mullen at Mississippi State and the two have been together ever since. As always, you know what you’re getting with a Grantham unit.

The Gators will move pieces around along the front seven as Grantham looks to confuse opposing quarterbacks and offensive coordinators. Florida likes to use a five-man front to take away all running gaps while playing man coverage on the outside. When “Third and Grantham” arrives, the Gators are going to be bringing some heat.

This attack only really works when the defense has individuals that can wreak havoc on the interior and defensive backs that can cover and tackle in space. Florida certainly has the former in 2021.

In their hybrid four-down front, Georgia transfer and former five-star recruit Brenton Cox Jr. (No. 1) plays the weakside Buck linebacker position that will rush the passer, be used in stunts, and occasionally drop back in coverage. The Metro Atlanta native has 15.5 tackles for loss in his career.

On the interior, Florida visited the portal and added Auburn transfer Daquan Newkirk (No. 44) and Penn State transfer Antonio Valentino (No. 55). Both of the new Gators have the girth and experience to plug both the A and B gaps. Meanwhile, sophomore nose tackle Gervon Dexter (No. 9) is a former five-star recruit who has big-time playmaking potential. The 300-pounder has great length at 6-foot-6 and some legitimate top-flight interior pass-rushing ability.

However, the best player on the defense is found at the field defensive end.

Zachary Carter (No. 6) is a redshirt senior from Tampa and the former four-star recruit has been one of the best defensive line players in the SEC to this point in the season. Through four games, the veteran has 6.5 tackles and four sacks as he looks like a legitimate NFL Draft prospect. He will be a handful for both Darian Kinnard and Dare Rosenthal to handle on the edge.

Once past the line of scrimmage, there is some weaknesses in this unit. After two games, Florida lost starting Mike linebacker Ventrell Miller for the season. For the second week in a row, Kentucky is facing a defense that needed to switch some guys around to fill the hole.

Super senior Jeremiah Moon (No. 7) is an outside linebacker who is now playing Mike. Grantham will still use him off the edge in some pass-rushing situations but the veteran brings size (6-5, 245) and experience to the field.

Meanwhile, Momamound Diabate (No. 11), Amari Burney (No. 2), and Ty’Ron Hopper (No. 28) all rotate in as Florida has a healthy rotation at inside linebacker. Each is a former blue-chip recruit.

At cornerback, Florida needs to win on national signing day. There are only a few players in each class that can successfully play the way Grantham likes his players to play. The Gators have some guys.

Kaiir Elam (No. 5) is a former top-50 recruit out of South Florida who has five career interceptions and 18 pass break-ups in 23 games. The 6-foot-2 junior corner missed last week but will be back in the lineup on Saturday.

In training camp, Florida lost expected starter Jaydon Hill to injury. This caused some shuffling, but luckily the Gators have recruited the position well. True freshman Jason Marshall Jr. (No. 3) was a five-star recruit out of Miami who is playing a lot as a true freshman. Redshirt freshman Avery Helm will also play frequently. This is a talented group, but the young Gators are going through some growing pains.

At safety, Trey Dean III (No. 0) was a former Kentucky target out of Metro Atlanta. The senior has 112 tackles and three interceptions in his career. Opposite of him, sophomores Rashad Torrence II (No. 22) and Mordecai McDaniel (No. 32) have roles.

Against the run, the Gators are holding opponents to just 3.08 yards per rush but sacks favor heavily into this number as Florida ranks 22nd nationally in sack rate (9.79%). For the year, opposing offenses have a 41.22 percent rush success rate. Each opponent has had some success on a down-to-down-basis but Florida does a good job of eliminating big rushes and getting occasional negative plays to get teams behind the chains.

Against the pass, opponents have a 41.86 percent passing success rate with a 16.27 percent explosive pass — 15 yards or more — rate. Big plays can be had against this secondary if quarterbacks are given time to throw.

This unit has had some struggles in situational football with a third down conversion rate that ranks T-81 nationally and a red zone touchdown rate that ranks T-78. Meanwhile, the defense has just produced just three takeaways in three games.

Get past the line of scrimmage and there are weaknesses to be exploited in the Florida defense.

Florida special teams

Evan McPherson is off to the NFL pouring in kicks for the Cincinnati Bengals. Down in Gainesville, the Gators are looking for a replacement.

After beginning the season with Chris Howard, Dan Mullen made a change against Tennessee after Howard missed an extra point against Florida. Mississippi State transfer Jace Christman stepped in and was perfect last week. The super senior was 32 of 40 in his career at State.

At punter, Jeremy Crawshaw is showing a big leg as a freshman with an average of 46.6 yards on 10 punts for the Australian.

On kickoffs, the Gators have a touchback rate of just 30.77 percent so returns will be an option this week. Xzavier Henderson is a dangerous return man and Kentucky must be careful kicking to him.

Florida isn’t great in the third phase, but the Gators provide some unique challenges.

Keys to Victory

• No matter how this game is handicapped, there is no getting past the line of scrimmage battle. For Kentucky to win, the Wildcats must be able to win the down-by-down fight in the trenches. Can Kentucky establish the run on offense? Can Kentucky eat up double teams and force Florida to attack the edge on defense? Check both of these boxes and the Wildcats will have a great chance at recording a win.
• Florida’s pass defense ranks 13th in the SEC in yards per attempt allowed and appears to be leaky in the back end. Kentucky’s big-play prevention defense is great at eliminating chunk plays. One of Kentucky’s top goals should be to win the explosive play battle. Hit on some deep vertical passes and keep everything in front on defense.
• Both teams will use some tempo, but each has a run-heavy attack. Therefore, possessions could be limited. This makes the hidden yardage battle mean that much more. Kentucky has lost this battle more times than not on punts this season. The Wildcats must find a way to play that closer to a draw on Saturday.
• Situational football is often overlooked, but more often than not it wins games. Kentucky’s offense has been really good at converting on third down and finishing drives. That must continue on Saturday. On defense, the Wildcats must start getting some red zone stops and need to be better than their season average on third down to get off the field.
• Kentucky has coughed up the ball non-stop this season, but Florida has only forced three turnovers through four games. This is a get-right spot for the offense. Meanwhile, Kentucky could benefit greatly to have its first multi-takeaway game off the season. Florida has the better roster but turnovers can close talent gaps fast. Force some takeaways, steal some possessions, and this could be one the biggest home wins in over a decade.