Where does Notre Dame stand in ESPN’s preseason FPI?
With 143 days until kickoff for Notre Dame football, ESPN has released its annual College Football Power Index ratings heading into the 2022 season.
The Irish are No. 5, behind some of the typical top teams: Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson, in that order. Looking ahead, Notre Dame plays two of the top-four teams in the Buckeyes and Tigers. The Irish also have a game against No. 22 North Carolina. Notably, USC is No. 37, and BYU is No. 46. Both are expected to be relatively difficult contests.
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Notre Dame’s rating is 17.5, and it has a projected win-loss record of 9.1-2.9. Additionally, according to the metric, the Irish have a 1.1 percent chance to go undefeated and a 17.6 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, which is the sixth-best chance nationally.
A total of 63 teams have a positive FPI, including nine of Notre Dame’s 12 2022 opponents.
According to ESPN, the FPI is “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes.”
The predictions are similar to what one would see if they were to bet on a team or a line.
Each rating has an offensive, defensive and special teams component. The preseason rating factors in returning players, previous performances, recruiting rankings and the head coach. Obviously, there is little data on Irish head coach Marcus Freeman.
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In terms of returning players, Notre Dame ranks relatively low nationally. The Irish sit at 93rd, with 59 percent of their total production from 2021 set to come back this fall. On the offensive side of the ball, the Irish have just 49 percent coming back this fall, which ranks 113th. The defense has 69 percent of its production returning, which ranks 56th.
The biggest question with Notre Dame — and the one that will determine if they can exceed that nine-win mark — is at the quarterback position. Sophomore Tyler Buchner is the favorite to win the job, but junior Drew Pyne is getting a large number of reps in spring practice as well. If the starter does well for the Irish, that playoff chance shoots up.
