Conference Alignment Talk: Is the Window Closing for Oregon?
Again, I’m going to lead this segment with the same thing I’ve said all along. I don’t have any great inside intel here. I’ve just been doing this a long time and have gotten relatively good at reading the tea leaves when it comes to college football.
It seems as all the talking heads have gone relatively quiet on the matter. We’ve now thrown out every possible scenario but don’t have anyone standing on a claim with any real conviction. Which once again supports what I believe and have said all along.
Nobody really knows what the hell is going on or what will happen.
But I’m going to back things up a bit. And probably go over the two things I have said and continue to believe.
- Oregon really needs to get into the Big Ten.
- That move won’t happen unless Notre Dame makes the move.
With talks of mergers coming out, I stand by what I said from day one. The Ducks really need to get into the Big Ten. Of course the SEC would be fine but that doesn’t really look remotely on the table. I think the SEC sits tight for another year.
And I’m starting to think the Big Ten might just sit tight for a year too. Which I don’t love, but let’s not smash the panic button just yet.
Just my belief here, but I will wager there are maybe like 4 phases to re-alignment. And the thing is, they can’t and won’t happen all at once.
We’re still at phase 2. All that’s happened so far is a total of 4 schools have made moves. And keep in mind, not a single one of these moves even takes place for at least 2 more years.
At this very moment, as far as actual football is concerned, nothing has happened. Everything is still the same. In 2024, different story.
Think about how much college football has changed in the last 2 years.
So look, what I’m saying is this, I still believe Oregon must get into the B1G (Or SEC) or whatever super conference for longevity reasons. That does need to happen. But I am also saying, it doesn’t have to happen by August 1 of 2022.
It took a full year from the Texas/Oklahoma – SEC move for USC and UCLA to make a move of their own.
Which means history is currently suggesting these moves are not coming ‘fast and furious.’ I would also wager the USC/UCLA move ‘discussions’ probably took place not long after that news broke. Which means it took a year to actually happen.
It takes time because as we are all well aware, money is the heart of the discussion. You have networks trying to keep prices down, you have conference trying to get as much money as possible but also not put too many slices into the pie.
And right now it feels like to me, everyone is trying to call each other’s bluff. And all anyone cares about is the money. Nothing else.
I’ve said all along and I’ll stick to this too, a Big-12/Pac-12 merger doesn’t help Oregon. (Or really anyone left in those two conferences)
I do think our man Dougts has been promoting a viable idea of some sort that I believe could be the move down the line. If the Big Ten and SEC stay put, which I think they might.
I think we could see this move, or something similar to it in Phase 3 next Summer.
The current issues I see are this.
- Nobody can really ‘afford’ to leave the ACC right now. MASSIVE hurdles.
- The SEC and B1G currently have nearly all of the leverage.
- If the ACC can get Notre Dame and add some Pac/Big 12 schools, they could force a 3rd super-conference.
With regards to number 3, I think that type of move is also relatively safe for Oregon. And you say, why would the B1G and SEC allow them into their little club? Because the networks, which ultimately are running the show here, will make it happen.
I understand my article opens with me saying Oregon needs to get into the B1G. And short term, yes, they do. But if these other ‘long term’ options present themself, I’m not going to be too worried.
I know folks are making storylines about Phil Knight begging for Oregon to get in. Here’s the deal, he might not have total power here, but he still wields a pretty big sword in the sports world. He has some mojo.
I do think Oregon will be fine. I am starting to think however we won’t really know any more until next Summer. Which is still ok. I know USC will use this in recruiting, but it’s not going to matter. At the moment and for the next couple of years, USC is still a part of the Pac-12. And ultimately, they probably need to worry more about winning games.
For those of you that are freaking out about this a little. I totally get it. It’s a very important part of Oregon’s long-term survival. They can’t get left out. They absolutely can not. We agree on that.
Now with that said, knowing they have Phil Knight in their corner, I do feel it’s a matter of “when not if” for the Ducks. Whether it’s B1G, SEC or perhaps a third conference merged with ACC properties.
Oregon is a premier brand in the college sports world. They have value well beyond just a media market size.
