Trav's Ten Takeaways: Mega Season Preview

Special Contribution from Travis Rooke-ley

We’re back!

Super excited to get started with football, and excited to see where the Ducks end up in 2023. The sting of last season remains, at least with me following a November that couldn’t have gone much worse. Really hope we have a season that makes us forget about two of the more painful losses I can remember.

Going into 2023, the pieces are there to get to the CFP. Between a top QB, high-end pieces depth at both RB and WR, and an underrated OL, there is no reason this offense shouldn’t remain top 10 nationally.

I’m a big fan of Will Stein and don’t expect our unit to skip a beat. Because of that, the defense simply needs to be solid to good, and you find yourself with a team that could be special. When you add up year two in the system, the hiring of Chris Hampton at DC, and the additions of Evan Williams, Jordan Burch, Jestin Jacobs, Khyree Jackson, Nikko Reed, and Tysheem Johnson, it’s hard not to expect a top 40 unit.

We’ll get into specifics below, but overall, super excited to watch this team and get things rolling!

Depth Chart Breakdown

OFFENSE:

QB: Nix, Thompson/Novosad

As long as Nix stays healthy, we are elite at QB. I hope we see him run a bit less this year, unless we’re in a situation where we need it to win a game. I expect Ty will start the season as the backup, and hope he can gain some confidence against PSU and Hawaii early in the year. I hear Novosad has made some strides and could push for some reps at some point. It would just be nice to be up by 21-28 and pull Nix, that’s all I’m looking for here. 

RB: Irving, Whittington, James

LOVE this group. I think Bucky and Noah are still underrated by both Duck fans, and national media. Super excited to watch them both this year and interested in how often we’ll see some two-back sets. Jordan James would probably start for most PAC-12 teams, and I think we’ll try to find creative ways to get him some touches as well.  

WR: Holden, Dickey

WR: Franklin, Kasper

SLOT: Johnson/Bryant, Hutson

As much depth and talent as we’ve had at the WR position since 2015. Franklin is the best WR we’ve had since, um, not sure? It’s been a while. The additions of Johnson, Holden, and Bryant from the portal will all help, especially in the slot where we become much more dynamic. Holden can play both inside and outside so the development of either Dickey or Kasper on the outside would be huge. No matter who pops, Bo will have plenty of options and we finally have the depth to withstand an injury to anyone but Troy. 

TE: Ferguson, Kelly/Sadiq/Herbert

After a small injury scare in thr spring, Ferguson should be full-go week 1 and is 1B in the Pac-12 alongside Kuithe from Utah. Behind him, I listed all three guys because they will each play a role. Kelly is a block-first guy in the mold of Cam McCormick last year. Sadiq is a dynamic athlete, but will likely need some development as a blocker. Herbert is a mostly known-commodity at this point, and just needs to stay healthy. 

LT: Conerly, Silva

LG: Harper, Strother

C: , JPJ, Laloulu

RG: Angilau, Jones

RT: Cornelius, Laloulu

The laziest narrative around the 2023 Ducks is that our OL is either a weak point or inexperienced because we lost four starters. In my projected top 8 above, you will the following: 5-star LT with experience, returning starter at LG, returning starter at C, transfer three-year starter at RG, and high-end transfer starter at RT. Behind that you have a high-end JUCO tackle, a guy in Jones who has a ton of experience and starts, and a transfer in Strother with starts. As long as we can replace the experience/calls of Forsyth, this unit has a higher upside, and can easily replicate 2022. 

DEFENSE:

DE: Dorlus, Funa/Tuioti

DT: Aumuvae, Taimani

DT: Ware-Hudson, Roberts

DE: Rogers, Uiagalelei

EDGE: Burch, Purchase

Don’t quote me on the exact spots of each of the guys above, but I think we’ll see all of them get meaningful snaps this season. This is as much depth as we’ve ever had on the DL, and it is the unit on defense that I feel best about. I think our run defense is going to be absolutely nasty. The only thing lacking is high-impact pass rushers, but I’m hoping a combination of better scheme/less reps for Burch plus the additions of Purchase and Uiagalelei will get us there. Looking forward to getting Popo back, Rogers is really underrated and healthy, and Dorlus should benefit from playing opposite Burch. 

OLB: Bassa, Hill

MLB: Jacobs, Soelle

The biggest transformation on the roster comes at LB, where out goes Sewell, Flowe, Brown, and LaDuke, and in come Jacobs, Bassa, Hill and Soelle. Duck fans are familiar with Hill and Bassa, but both have added weight and will play solely at LB this season. Jacobs is a really talented transfer from Iowa, while Soelle is a much less heralded transfer from ASU. Simply by comparing measurables, you can see the difference in profile that Lanning is looking for, prioritizing athleticism and speed versus the traditional LB like Sewell. All four guys are in that 215-245lb range, and can run and tackle. Given the scheme that Lanning has installed, these four are a much better fit and should better provide the optionality at LB that we need to make a jump defensively. 

Nickel: 

CB: Reed, Florence

CB: Jackson, Bridges

FS: Addison, Turner/Decambra

SS: Williams, Stephens

STAR: Johnson, Martin

Once again, don’t hold me to these positions, as I think Reed, Martin, Johnson, and Florence are all training at both STAR and CB. I feel good about CB, and even think we could go six deep there adding Manning and freshman Daylen Austin. In terms of solid depth, it’s the best the position has looked in a while. Reed and Jackson are both transfers with experience, while Bridges and Manning have played a lot of snaps at Oregon. I think Florence and Austin are probably the two most talented guys in the room, and can hopefully take more and more reps as the season goes on. I love the addition of Evan Williams at S, the younger brother of Bennett Williams. He’s a tackler like his brother, but a much faster and better athlete. 

Breakout Players

Tez Johnson: Big upgrade in the slot in terms of twitchiness and straight-line speed. I could see Tez developing into a big-time third-down weapon, and bet we’ll look for creative ways to get him the ball. Could see him getting touches in the return game as well. He’s my bet to pop between all the transfers at WR. 

Jeff Bassa: I predict that Bassa will lead the defense in tackles this year, and take a big step to becoming an all-conference player. Lanning’s scheme is an ideal fit for his speed, size, and tackling, and think we’re talking about him as pretty indispensable come November. 

Josh Conerly: For all the questions about our OL, Conerly’s presence is paramount to those questions becoming silent. The former 5-star from Seattle is going to step right into protecting Nix at LT, and I bet he’ll be the best LT in the league by mid-season. His tools, notice the theme, are NFL caliber and he’s the exact type of anchor along the line that will make this unit not skip a beat. 

Roster Questions

Special Teams: We really struggled to cover both punts and kicks last year, and until that gets proven, I remain skeptical. Our punting was similarly terrible, and while I was encouraged in the spring game, it would be nice to have a proven guy back there. Camden Lewis was solid most of the year at Kicker, but I still don’t trust him to make a real kick that matters. 

Pass Rush: I’m definitely hopeful that the additions of Burch, Tuioti, Purchase, Matayo, and the return of Popo will help us generate some real pressure this year. If we can get pressure with four, the ceiling of this defense takes a huge leap. I think Lanning and Malchow did the best they could to upgrade a challenging position in the portal and prep ranks, but we’ll see how we look. Tech, UW, SC, and Utah all run out below-average to average OLs so a pass rush would be so huge to win those games. 

IOL Injuries: At the time of writing this, I’m pretty confident in saying we are banged up among some interior lineman. Nothing crushing from what I know, but simply some smaller-scale injuries that could impact us early on. My concern simply comes down to continuity and the lack of time for this unit to gel before some big games early in the year. 

Conference Preview

Below is the Pac-12 Media preseason poll followed by some thoughts I have on each team. 

1.  USC (25)I have the benefit of writing this post-SJSU, but I can’t say my thoughts changed much. I’m eternally grateful to Riley for keeping Grinch, and I’d personally be willing to chip in some cash into a yearly fund to pay Riley to keep him. While Caleb is all-world, the OL is soft and the entire defense hates tackling. Because of their QB and skill talent, they’ll still probably be undefeated into ND, but I think they drop at least 2 of the final 6 games.	413
2.  Washington (4)They are basically SC, but offer a top-flight DE in Bralen Trice, a better OL, but way less talent overall. Between Penix, Odunze, and McMillan, they are going to score points at a high rate assuming everyone stays healthy. Interested to see if they will improve in the run game and thus, have some more success in the red zone, which was their biggest weakness last year. Like many in this conference, the huge questions come on defense, and unlike SC and Oregon, they barely tried to fix it. Beyond Trice and Tuli on the DL, I have questions about the rest of their starters defensively and like SC, they’ll have to outscore teams to win.	367
3.  Utah (6)Questions abound regarding the health of Cam Rising, which are heightened because of their schedule. They host Florida on Thursday and then travel to Baylor in week 2. Whittingham notoriously plays things super close to the vest, and I have no intel on their options after Rising. The conference will come down to who can develop a real defense and it’s hard to trust anyone but Utah to build a passable unit given the last few seasons. They don’t offer the upside and talent that Oregon, SC, and UW can on offense, but after back-to-back titles, it’s hard not to list Utah amongst that top group until they prove otherwise.	359
4.  Oregon (1)See rest	344
5.  Oregon StateI have a ton of respect for Smith and the job he’s done rebuilding OSU. They bring back good RBs and an experienced OL. Depending on what happens at QB, their offense could be solid, although they lack much juice at WR. No matter what happens on offense, I see their defense taking a big step back. They lost a lot of guys, including most of their real talent on D. I think teams score pretty easily on the Beavs and they drop 4-5 games this year.	309
6.  UCLAInterested in what is going to happen at QB between Ethan Garbers and Duck heart-breaker Freshman Dante Moore. Garbers is pretty limited athletically, and I’d be surprised if he was the starter midway through the season. Moore is also more of a pro-style guy, but offers an upside that Garbers can’t match. Either way, their schedule is super soft and I see a road for them to backdoor into the PAC-12 title game. Their RB transfer Carson Steele is going to feast under Chip, and they have the best edge in the conference in Latu.	248
7.  Washington StateThey bring in a young and highly-touted OC to run the offense, but hopefully, he can get a bit more consistency out of Cam Ward. Although Ward will impress with an occasion crazy throw, he’s super inconsistent, has terrible footwork, and is generally pretty overrated in my mind. Besides Ward, they lost some more guys in the portal, and have the least talented roster in the conference.	186
8.  ArizonaDespite the loss of Dorian Singer to SC, I actually think this offense will be good to very good. Fisch is good offensively and DeLaura makes just enough big-time throws where I think they’ll score. Man, the loss of T-Mac still looms large, and I expect he’ll have a big year. However, they still run out a bad defense and will have to score every possession to compete with the top 6 teams in the conference.	176
9.  CaliforniaMy California preview consists of finding it humorous that there are still national media out there who believe the Ducks tried to hire Justin Wilcox	132
10.  Arizona StateSounds like they are going with heralded true freshman Jaden Rashada, which seems like the right move to get him reps from day one. Dillingham flipped the roster in the off-season, and given his offensive mild, they’ll probably compete. However, lines are both a big issue, and the lack of depth will hit them as the season goes on.	122
11.  ColoradoAll eyes are on the buffs this year to see whether Deion’s big experiment gets any legs. They have talent at QB, WR, and CB, but are very very thin elsewhere. I think any injuries will hit them hard, and besides some bright moments from their high-end guys, believe they will struggle.	98
12.  StanfordNot sure how the Cardinal got to this point, but they are really bad. Troy Taylor is recruiting well in 2023 which should help moving forward, but for now, yikes. That game on the Farm 9/30 better not be close for once.	54

Schedule Predictions

Week 1 Portland State: W 63-3

Week 2 Texas Tech: W 38-28

Week 3 Hawaii: W 56-14

Week 4 Colorado W 42-14

Week 5 Stanford: W 38-17

Week 6 Bye:

Week 7 Washington: W 42-34

Week 8 Washington State: W 41-21

Week 9 Utah: L 35-31

Week 10 California: W 38-20

Week 11 USC: W 45-35

Week 12 ASU: W 41-17

Week 13 OSU: W 37-24

Explanation

For non-conference games, I am super worried about Texas Tech. We are the more talented and experienced team, but it’s a real road environment and I assume they will be pretty fired up for that game. I think our OL will be pretty damn good this year, but the lack of continuity and reps from the fall could hurt us a bit in the first road test. I think we escape with a win because Nix and our skill guys will make enough plays, but I don’t expect an easy game by any means.

Into conference play, I think the season comes down to the UW, SC, and Utah games. I think those are the three games on the schedule that will determine our berth in the Pac-12 championship game and possible CFP berth as I can’t see us dropping a stupid game elsewhere on the schedule. Thankfully, I think we match up very well against UW and will reverse the choke that still haunts me from last year. SC has an elite offense and may be undefeated when we host them in November, but I expect an all-time Autzen crowd and just can’t pick against us in that environment. Utah seemed like the logical loss given our history in that stadium. Utah seems to always improve as the year goes and I bet Rising is back and fully healthy by then. 

With the predictions above, you’ll find yourself in Vegas playing for a CFP berth. With a playoff semifinal game in Pasadena on 1/1/2024, it sure would be nice to play in that stadium, on that date, one last time before this whole thing changes.