How ESPN's FPI sees the last half of the season going
The bye week came at the right time for South Carolina.
Not only do the Gamecocks have a week to get healthy before a pivotal stretch of games, but the open date also comes right at the midway point of the season.
That gives everyone a chance to take a deep breath and evaluate things exactly halfway through the 2022 season. Here’s a chance to see what’s next on the schedule based on ESPN’s FPI metrics.
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The Gamecocks have played six games and won the games they were favored in–Georgia State, Charlotte and South Carolina State–and one game ESPN’s FPI didn’t project the Gamecocks to win.
South Carolina was given a 23.9 percent chance to spring the upset in Lexington, albeit it that was before Will Levis and his injury. Regardless, South Carolina picked up the win and now sits two away from bowl eligibility.
But now, coming up after the bye week, comes the Gamecocks’ three best chances to pick up wins over the back half of the season.
South Carolina has a better than 60 percent chance to beat both Missouri and Vanderbilt with just under a 45 percent chance to take out Texas A&M for the first time in program history.
The Gamecocks have a 44.5 percent chance to beat the Aggies. That’s a number that’s slightly increased as the season’s progressed.
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South Carolina is coming off its best win of the year. The Aggies have struggled offensively and cycled between a couple of quarterbacks.
The FPI gives the Gamecocks a 64.2 chance to beat Missouri at home at the end of October. South Carolina hasn’t beaten Missouri since 2018, the rain game.
Missouri’s also struggled some this year. But the Tigers are coming off back-to-back losses against Georgia and Florida with each game decided by a score.
The best chance at a win the remainder of the season is at Vanderbilt the following week. ESPN’s FPI has South Carolina a 68.5 percent favorite to win that game in Nashville at the beginning of October.
The Gamecocks are on a double-digit win streak against the Commodores with the last loss coming in 2008.
South Carolina, though, has a sub-40 percent chance in the final three games of the season.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Gamecocks just a 34.6 percent chance to beat Florida on the road in Gainesville. South Carolina’s won just twice in program history in Gainesville.
The FPI gives South Carolina a 17.9 percent chance to beat Tennessee and a 9.7 percent chance to beat Clemson on the road to end the year.
If the Gamecocks do win only the games it’s favored in this season and lose the rest it would mean finishing 2-4 to end the season. But that is a 6-6 (3-5 SEC) season and going to a bowl in back-to-back seasons.
Right now, the Gamecocks rank in the 50s in ESPN’s FPI but are 36th in ESPN’s SP+ rankings.
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As of right now they’ve beaten Georgia State (78 SP+), Charlotte (125), South Carolina State (NR) and Kentucky (16). The losses are to Arkansas (39) and Georgia (3).
The Gamecocks have games against the Aggies (26), Missouri (53), Vanderbilt (92), Florida (35), Tennessee (7) and Clemson (13) next.
