3-2-1: Culture wins, run game and which Arch Manning we get

Texas is gearing up to play its fifth Power Four opponent this year. By difficulty of matchup, this is probably the fourth-hardest game of the bunch. By nervousness to perform, it might be second.

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Expectations were higher for Texas heading into Florida’s loss and Kentucky’s should-be loss, and there’s never any question if the two teams will turn it up for the Red River Rivalry.

There were clearly going to be some butterflies for players and fans alike playing OSU. Clearly, that was going to be an extremely hard game. This one, though, feels like it has a ton at stake for both sides.

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1st Thing I Know: MS State Is Looking for a Program-Igniting Win

I have a feeling the Bulldogs have had this one circled for a while, even before Texas’ struggles to open the year.

MS State started the SEC slate at home vs. Tennessee before heading on the road for two straight losses at Texas A&M and Florida. With how the schedule aligned, this game was always going to mean a lot. Finally home, MS State knows they need a true upset for bowl eligibility. What better chance do they have than this Texas team, which is now playing its fourth straight game away from home?

Jeff Lebby is a good coach who’s had real success in the portal and recruiting. This will be his chance to announce MS State to the CFB world and maybe carry the momentum into a game at Arkansas next week. The Cowbells will be loud, and Texas is going to need another culture win.

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2nd Thing I Know: Simplicity Is Key

I think Texas needs to take the time this week to accept who both teams are. Texas is an elite defense with a spotty offense. They need to win this game via ball control, with the defense and special teams stepping up.

MS State, while an intriguing team, is what they are. They’re probably second to last in pure talent in the SEC and maybe the 14th-best team overall.

A simple game could easily lead to a simple win for Texas: less experimenting in the run game, coverages that compensate for the loss of Michael Taaffe, and a game plan that lends itself to a sub-40-point total.

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3rd Thing I Know: Two Stats That Will Decide the Winner

Go look at the box score after this game on Saturday and tell me who was more efficient on first down, and who had a higher yards per carry on non-sack runs.

I’d bet good money that team wins this game.

Those go hand in hand: most runs come on 1st and 10, but both teams absolutely need to perform well there if they want a chance. Texas’ offense is too poor to operate on 2nd- and 3rd-and-longs, and MS State needs to win those kinds of neutral battles to beat a better team in Texas.

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1st Thing I Don’t Know: Fluff Bothwell’s Health

MS State’s star transfer RB Fluff Bothwell is still listed as questionable. His availability is the biggest storyline leading up to the game.

He’s easily their most productive runner — a powerful back who falls forward more often than not. I don’t think Davon Booth, his backup, is anything special, and they’re thin afterward.

Bothwell playing could greatly turn the tide of this game, especially if he can find a rhythm early. If that happens, Texas may be in trouble.

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2nd Thing I Don’t Know: Just How Good Texas Is at Stopping the Run

I still feel like this is a part of the defense that hasn’t been tested much.

We knew Oklahoma couldn’t run, so Texas handling the Sooners made sense. Kentucky and Ohio State — average running teams — did fine given expectations, while Florida absolutely blew Texas out of the water.

Is this Texas defense going to be able to dominate the run game? They have the added benefit of facing a non–non-dual-threat QB, but MS State’s wonky splits put a lot of pressure on the interior defensive line to make plays. Not to mention, they utilize a 6’5″ freshman wildcat QB in certain situations. With one game separating them and a great Vanderbilt offense, it would be good to get some clarity.

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1 Thing I Want to Know: What Arch Manning Do We Get Today?

I’ve said multiple times that this Texas team is different every week. More specifically, Arch Manning is different every week.

We’ve seen three really bad versions of Manning: Ohio State, UTEP, and Kentucky.

We’ve seen two good versions of Manning in different fonts: playmaker Manning against Florida, and game manager Manning against Oklahoma.

By averages, you’d think we get a good Manning tomorrow — but who really knows?

His performance is clearly a hinge point for Texas. If they get the guy who played against the Sooners, they’ll walk out of Starkville comfy as can be.

Even if they get Florida Manning, they still should win this game.

But if we see the same QB from last week, Texas is going to royally struggle. The Longhorns’ and Manning’s inability to stay consistent week to week can be infuriating, but this is one where you hope to see a very different team compared to seven days prior.