An improved rushing offense could put Texas over the top

Texas has needed more out of the rushing attack over the last year and a half. Steve Sarkisian likes to play a complimentary brand of football, and the ground game having success is a major component of opening up the passing offense. Will the run game face issues against tougher opponents, or will the fresh faces on the offensive line revive the other half of the Sarkisian offense?

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When you look at where Texas has won and lost games since 2021, you get an idea of how important the rushing offense is. In the ten losses since the 2021 season, six of them have come from games where Texas rushed for under 3.0 yards per carry. The only wins that buck that trend are victories against Arizona State (2025) and Alabama (2023).

It is hard to blame the four other losses on the rushing attack, especially when they were for the most part heavy passing games that turned into shootouts. The losses were against Washington (20-27), Oklahoma State (34-41), Texas Tech (34-37), and Oklahoma (30-34).

Before we go any further, let’s define some of these terms used in the article.

Stuff Rate – Percentage of rushing plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage
Line Yards – Estimates rushing yards attributable to the offensive line using weighted yardage

•Losses: 120%
•0–4 yards: 100%
•5–10 yards: 50%
•11+ yards: 0%

When looking at line yards and stuff rate, there is a direct correlation between getting stuffed more frequently and teams rushing for fewer yards. That shouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone, but it shows a weakness in Texas game. You can see Texas in the middle right portion of the screen right by Colorado State and Iowa.

2024 NCAA FBS

Now this is not just a ‘pile on the offensive line and blame them for the lack of a run game’ article. Running back talent looked different after preseason injuries to CJ Baxter and Christian Clark in 2024, especially when looking at what Bijan Robinson and Jonathon Brooks provided for the Longhorn offense in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Here is the same graph as above with offensive stuff rate as the x-axis and offensive line yards as the y-axis, but for 2023.

You can see Texas is now in the upper-middle of the pack of FBS schools by UCLA and Kansas State. That game against Washington looks a lot different without the fumbles. Does Brooks put the ball on the turf?

2023 NCAA FBS

Texas was in the same neighborhood when it came to stuff rate in 2023 as compared to 2022, but the line yards were lower in 2022. Robinson made a lot of chicken salad or made a lot of lemonade during his standout junior season in 2022.

Texas is just to the left of Florida State and under UH/OU.

2022 NCAA FBS

Which then takes us to year one under Sarkisian in 2021. Texas was one of the top rushing teams in the nation in terms of not allowing teams to stuff runs, and running the ball for good yardage.

2021 NCAA FBS

In short, it is likely due to the offensive line that was largely the same the last 3-4 years being better at pass blocking than run blocking.

As you can see there is a similar looking drop off in the play from the running backs. Jaydon Blue was by far the most explosive back Texas had last year, there were just issues fumbling the ball. So that left Quintrevion Wisner with a Bijan-sized workload, notching the second most number of carries by a Longhorn running back under Sarkisian in a single season.

Statistics can be twisted around and manipulated, but these are all suggesting the same or extremely similar scenario. The Texas Longhorns haven’t been the same running the ball since Bijan left, nor since Brooks left. That goes for just about any advanced statistic you can find including broken + missed tackles rate, 1st down rate, hit at line rate, stuff rate, yards per attempt, it just does not paint a great picture of good play.

So where does Baxter fit into this? He missed all of 2024 due to injury and has a considerable amount of optimism tailing him in 2025. He will need to be worked back into game shape, and that sounds like something that he’s handled well this camp.

What do numbers say about Baxter?

Baxter’s advanced data from his 2023 season before tearing his ACL last preseason nearly mirrors Wisner’s data from 2024. Pass protection is where Baxter may be the most valuable. Being an elite pass protector is not a bad trait for a running back to hold. But when running the rock? Baxter will need to prove he can pick up yardage after contact. A back his size needs to be bowling dudes over and incredibly hard to tackle.

Now something that must be said about Wisner, while he may not be the flashiest running back around, he will lower his shoulder and attempt pop a defender in the mouth. He runs hard, and puts forth full effort every single time. Missed tackles or not, Wisner is a dawg.

Now before the typing takes off screaming about an omission of Arch Manning’s legs affecting the game, that is true and defenders will have to respect Arch’s athleticism.

Manning’s role in the run game can’t be ignored, but it’s not a magic eraser that wipes away all of the problems. Plus, Sarkisian isn’t all that big on overutilizing, or overexposing, quarterbacks in the run game. The last thing he wants is Manning taking a beating running the ball and not being able to hit the downfield throws in the offense. Deep ball accuracy is what makes Manning special.

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Texas is in a situation where fans need to hope that the offensive line over the last three years truly was just a below average run blocking group, while also hoping that this next group of inexperienced linemen will take a massive leap in the run game.