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Analyzing The New 2025 CFB Playoff Format

by: Paul Wadlington08/19/25
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Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Let’s take a look at the new playoff format and what it could be mean for the broader field of 12 and the Texas Longhorns.

First, a blank playoff slate:

Remember that the 1st round of playoffs are hosted at the higher seeded team’s home site.

Thereafter, Round 2 and on, it goes to bowls. I’d prefer that the second round also be home sites, but no one asked me.

We also now have true seeding, so no longer will we see G5 and Big 12 champs with 1st round byes.

Time off between the regular season/conference games to Round 1 or 2 remains profound.

What do we know that is probable about the seeding?

  • Seed 10 is likely to be a B12 or ACC team
  • Seed 11 is likely to be a B12 or ACC team
  • Seed 12 is likely to be the G5 representative

The above isn’t guaranteed. A Big 12 champion might go 12-0 and earn a 6 seed. Boise State might go undefeated and upset Notre Dame. Whatever. You get the point.

The 5 seed remains a pretty good deal. You take on the Group of Five team on your home field and then play a team that’s roughly equal in Round 2 at a neutral site to make the semifinals. 6 isn’t a bridge too far either. You’re likely playing the Big 12 champ or the ACC runner up in your home stadium.

Though the 1 and 2 seeds get a bye, they never get a true home field advantage and the #7 team in the playoff (Round 2) is a pretty good football team. That written, Round 2 bowl choices are offered based on seeding. Host team chooses the venue based on seeding and historic conference ties.

The CFP selection committee will assign the four highest-ranked schools to Playoff Quarterfinals hosted by bowls. This will be done in consideration of historic bowl relationships, then in consideration of rankings. For example, if the Sugar Bowl hosts a Playoff Quarterfinal and an SEC school is ranked No. 1 and a Big 12 schools is ranked No. 3, the SEC school would be assigned to the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12 school would be assigned elsewhere.

Could Texas choose the Cotton Bowl instead of the Sugar Bowl? It’s not clear. We would certainly want to do so.

Let’s fill it out and see what this could actually look like.

I’m not going chalk, so don’t get your panties in a wad. I just want to illustrate what one scenario could look like and help clarify levels of opponent.

Utah won the Big 12. Clemson beat Louisville in the ACC title game. Alabama is your SEC champion over Texas, Penn State won the Big 10 over Ohio State. DJ Lagway stayed healthy!

Feel free to fill it out however you like and play with scenarios.

You’ll probably notice that whatever scenarios you tinker around with, the odds of a playoff Texas, wherever they are seeded, having a repeat opponent in the playoffs is strong. Whether Ohio State, perhaps a SEC title game opponent, Georgia, or Florida. Maybe the Aggies (lolz).

The committee doesn’t officially care about repeat games. I could see them smudging if it’s close, but they’re not going to gratuitously manipulate seedings to engineer novel matchups.

Being the 9 seed sucks. You’ll play a tough peer at their place and then battle the #1 in their preferred bowl. AVOID. Note the clear difference between playing 10-12 (you also host them at your stadium) vs 8 or 9.

How about this one? It illustrates how eliminating even one SEC/B10 team and Notre Dame changes the complexion of the playoff. We’ve got 5 teams from the ACC, B12, G5 combined. Isn’t inclusion awesome?

Of course, this is all speculative. If you want to know Texas’ exact record (and every team in the SEC) there’s only one place to go.

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