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Arbitrary numbers Texas will look to hit against UTEP

by: Evan Vieth15 hours ago
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Arch Manning (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

Usually, basing your football takes around arbitrary numbers is the number one way for me to not trust your opinions.

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For our NFL fans, the fact that Mike Evans has a Hall of Fame case because he had one yard over 1K in 2017 is one of the most infuriating arguments in the sport. Arbitrary takes are also how many of us, including myself, may have overrated Quintrevion Wisner coming into the year.

But he rushed for 1,000 yards!

Still, finding benchmarks for success is a meaningful exercise when diagnosing success in these sorts of games. A win for Texas isn’t just expected, it’s the baseline. If they don’t cover the spread (speaking of arbitrary), fans won’t be happy, no matter the context.

There are a few stats that feel necessary for Texas fans to exit this game confident and happy with the team’s performance.

75% completion percentage for Arch Manning

Even with a strong bounce-back performance from Manning, the accuracy was still faulty at times. His first completion probably should’ve been incomplete if Ryan Wingo wasn’t such a superb athlete.

This 75% mark isn’t just for Manning; it also means that the receivers aren’t dropping passes or messing up routes. Manning was at 63% against San Jose State. With the aggressive nature of the Miners’ defense, and them being the inferior team, Manning should have no problem finding open receivers and often. Plus, people love completion percentage.

25+ yard RB run

Texas’ current longest run by a running back is 18 yards. That can’t be your peak after 53 attempts through two games. Texas would love to not only find a consistent running game, but also an explosive run.

More carries to Christian Clark and Jerrick Gibson should help that. They have the speed and talent to run past G6 defenders and turn a four-yard gain into 30 or more.

If there’s anything it feels like Texas’ offensive line, running backs, or coaches NEED, it’s a big run to get the crowd excited.

10 points after the first two drives

This feels like the floor, even though the first two games’ first two drives combined for a total of zero points. At this stage of Manning and Steve Sarkisian’s careers, they can’t be a low-functioning team on scripted plays to open the game.

Texas needs at least a touchdown and a field goal between their first two possessions. Don’t give UTEP any chance ever to have a lead in this one. Execute your first two drives, run away from there.

4+ Sacks OR 3+ Turnovers

It’s one or the other. The defense, as much as there is little reason to have concern, needs to keep up the momentum.

There are a few questions surrounding the Longhorns’ ability to rush the passer after zero sacks against Ohio State, though we know there’s likely no reason to worry.

Still, they should be getting consistent and effective pressure on Malachi Nelson all game. Either those turn into sacks, or they turn into turnovers. Pick your poison, Mr. 5-Star.

Success won’t be measured in a win today. As we’ve said, that’s a given. Success means a strong offensive performance, consistency from Manning and the run game, and the defense continuing to show they are the best in the nation.

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