Can Dailyn Swain be Texas' next first-round NBA Draft pick?

For all of the complaints about the on-court product for Texas Longhorns men’s basketball over the last two-and-a-half decades, there was certainly no shortage of NBA talent to come through the 40 Acres.

Recently, it was Tre Johnson, who went sixth overall to the Washington Wizards after dominating his freshman season despite the previous administration’s archaic offense; before then, five big men in a row, from Myles Turner in 2015 to Kai Jones in 2021.

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Obviously, no discussion of Longhorn basketball can be had without mentioning the brilliant and controversial career of future Hall of Fame member Kevin Durant, whose outstanding 2007 campaign in Austin resulted in his being the first-ever freshman to win National Player of the Year (though three have done so since). Former Trail Blazers and Spurs big man LaMarcus Aldridge deserves mention too, as does 2003 Naismith Player of the Year TJ Ford.

Texas basketball underwent a fundamental change in the spring of this year when AD Chris Del Conte and the Board of Regents hired Xavier head coach Sean Miller to take over the program, and with him came a major shift in roster focus. The new-look Longhorns will be an inside-out team, a group built with SEC physicality – and size – in mind.

Though there is not a bonafide top-10 pick on the roster this season, NBA scouts have paid plenty of interest to Xavier transfer Dailyn Swain as a possible first-round pick in the 2026 Draft next summer, a combo forward with elite defensive tools and a burgeoning offensive game whose efficiency inside the arc made him an important piece of the Musketeers’ multi-pronged attack last season. He is also young for a junior, and would be freshly 21 at the start of next year’s Summer League.

Swain put up 11.0 points and shot 53% from the field last season on top of being a legitimate two-way piece. These numbers are solid, but don’t necessarily pop off the page. So what makes Swain an NBA prospect?

The Good: Defensive Impact

The size and defensive versatility are the first and most obvious indicators of his potential at the next level. He stands at 6-foot-8, weighs 225 pounds, and is an energetic defensive playmaker that averaged 1.6 steals per game last season.

A high-feel player on this end of the floor, Swain has active hands, getting into passing lanes often and causing deflections – even if these don’t always result in outright steals, they at the very least disturb the rhythm of the opposing offense.

He also blocked 20 shots in 2024-25 despite not being an outright rim protector. He can oscillate between defending wings and power forwards; his mobility lends itself to “switchability”, which is a major benefit not just in Miller’s defensive scheme, but compulsory for a combo forward at the NBA level.

The Good: Physicality

Swain is a very physical prospect – he was the Musketeers’ second-leading rebounder last season at 5.5 boards per game, with a very solid defensive rebounding percentage at 18.5%. On the offensive end, he invites contract when driving to the basket, using his frame to bully opponents. He has a very solid handle for his position, allowing him to slash to the basket from the perimeter, which in turn gives him opportunities to finish through contact at the rim.

The Good: Connective Passing

An underrated aspect of Swain’s offensive game is his ability to play make, both from stationary positions as well as off of the dribble. He averaged 2.6 dimes per game and had a fantastic assist rate of 17.6% last year, which speaks not only to his IQ, but also to the proficiency of Sean Miller’s system that relies on players other than the lead initiator to make reads.

Areas for Improvement: Shooting

Swain had a difficult time connecting from beyond the arc last season, but also in any situation involving shooting off of the dribble. To put it flatly, he is not efficient off of the bounce – he had a very poor 33% effective field goal rate on such attempts in 2024-25, which could affect his usefulness as a playmaker while driving. He was just 25% from three last year on all attempts, including spot-ups. The silver lining is that his 82% from the free-throw line is a good indication that he could potentially evolve into a good catch-and-shoot forward.

Extras: Transition Scoring, Big-to-Big Screening

About one third of Xavier’s offensive possessions last season were in the fast break, and Swain was an excellent player in transition. His ability to cut to the basket and get into position to score before the defense can set is a major benefit of his high feel for the game. When he was on the floor, Xavier averaged 1.07 points per possession in the break.

He also spent a decent amount of time as the ball handler in pick-and-roll situations with Zach Freemantle as the roller. These looks underlined not just his versatile skillset, but also Miller’s emphasis on position-less play. Xavier attacked switches mercilessly in these sets, creating mismatches that allowed Swain to beat slower-footed bigs off of the dribble and to the basket.

Conclusion

In order for Swain to be a first-round pick in a positively loaded 2026 class, the shooting has to come along, first and foremost. Even if an off-the-dribble game doesn’t develop, it’s imperative that he be able to space the floor as a spot-up threat, which will in turn allow him to attack closeouts.

The potential is certainly there for Swain to hear his name called in the first 30 picks, provided he improves the previously mentioned attribute and continues to progress with his already noted strengths.

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