Can "Manning-to-Livingstone" be the next "McCoy-to-Shipley?"

Texas Longhorn football has a pretty positive experience with quarterback/receiver roommate duos. “Did you know Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley are roommates?” is a meme that’s survived a decade plus of Texas fandom after announcers and analysts would mention it on air during Longhorn games virtually every week as the two connected for 205 receptions for 2,545 yards and 24 touchdowns over two seasons together.
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The trick for Texas was McCoy was a fourth and fifth year player in 2008 and 2009 while Shipley was a 5th and 6th year player after receiving a medical redshirt for hamstring issues which threatened to derail his career as an underclassman. With all that time together on campus the two developed a complete mastery of offensive coordinator Greg Davis’ passing game, including ultra synced-up timing on option routes like “Y-stick” in the middle of the field.
If the Longhorns could effectively threaten any other area of the field and hold any defensive attention there, the partnership was nearly indefensible.
Naturally, this history has made me intrigued by the fact current Longhorn quarterback Arch Manning and outside receiver Parker Livingstone are roommates and Livingstone stood out in the spring and summer for his consistency catching deep throws. Good timing between a quarterback and receiver can beat most defenses.
Then the other day we got this quote from Ryan Wingo in the player availabilities…
…and now I’m getting serious flashbacks to 2008-09.
The choice route
Deep choice routes are probably the best play in football.
The idea couldn’t be more simple. The receiver starts off the route with a release and vertical stem, then at a certain (ideally predetermined) point, he makes a decision about what specific route he’s running based on the defense’s leverage. The result is that when executed properly, the receiver is always running the route which offers him the best chance to get open, much like Shipley working underneath to open grass on a stick route.
The difference is that on a deep choice route, the upside isn’t catching the ball with a chance to turn upfield for a first down, it’s catching a bomb down the field for a touchdown or explosive play.
Texas Tech arguably beat Texas in 2008 because the outside choice route mastery by Michael Crabtree with Graham Harrell was a more efficient and difficult weapon to contain than Colt throwing option routes underneath to Shipley. Indeed, it was the very concept which won that game for the Red Raiders.
On the outside, choice routes are generally pretty simple and come in only a few different flavors. One of them would be a “post or go” choice. If the outside receiver gets tight coverage from the cornerback, he can elect to just go outside on a fly route down the field. If he’s given some space to work in, he can work to get down the field on a post route.

The quarterback will look his way either based off a pre-snap “alert” if he thinks he has a shot or if the progression tells him the outside receiver is 1-on-1. Then he has to quickly throw to the same route and spot the receiver is running.
Another is the simpler “keep going or settle” variety:

If the corner is tight, the receiver runs by him on a fade route to the sideline. If he plays off, he settles and comes back for the ball (like Crabtree did). Things can get more complex if there’s a real mastery here and the quarterback can throw more of a back shoulder fade even if the receiver is covered.
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On the inside, slot receivers running deep choices have similar options except the read is often on the safety, such as on the “bender” or “seam-read” route which any good deep shot team has in the arsenal:

Teams can add extra options against different coverages and leverages like the back shoulder fade if the players can handle the optionality, but the main keys are these:
- The receiver has to be able to adjust his plan on the move. That’s very difficult and often a differentiator for the true greats across multiple sports. Making a good plan and executing it with a pre-choreographed maneuver is hard, adjusting your plan and footwork on the fly is much harder still. This is why “fastest 40 times” and “best NFL receivers” is a venn diagram and not a circle.
- The quarterback has to be on the same page, reading the same thing as the receiver, and then throwing to spots trusting the receiver will make the same choice and be there to catch it.
It’s hard to get this stuff right if the quarterback waits to see the receiver make a clear choice. Ideally they’re in sync before the snap or shortly after.
Jackpot!
In the first scrimmage, Manning and Livingstone were notably in sync pre-snap on the coverage they were seeing and what it meant for Livingstone’s route, leading to two completed bombs down the field.
This chemistry and potency on the outside also pairs exceptionally well with what Texas has going on in the slot with DeAndre Moore and on the other perimeter with Wingo.
To have an enormous impact on this season, Livingstone doesn’t have to catch 100 balls or go for 1,000 yards receiving like Shipley did with McCoy. He just needs to present a consistent threat to be in the right spot to take advantage if teams try to play 1-on-1 outside and take their chances against him. If the mind-meld between the starting quarterback and outside X receiver is such they can routinely generate big plays it will hamstring defenses from devoting numbers and attention to the more obvious threats at the other receiver positions, or to tight end Jack Endries, or to the run game.
Being unable to either press up on an X receiver or play off-coverage with the field cornerback and then ignore that area of the deep field for the rest of the game is brutal for a defensive coordinator. The very last thing any of those guys want to do is spend time figuring out how to shade help to the area of the field farthest from the main action in the box or up the seams.
Odds are, Livingstone will put up big numbers because this will be a price many teams are unwilling to pay with their defensive gameplans.
So if Texas has found another roommate connection as strong as McCoy-to-Shipley?
Look out college football.