ESPN's Playoff Predictor reveals which one loss would hurt Texas' CFP chances the most

The Texas Longhorns entered 2025 with national championship expectations. With close losses to both Ohio State and Florida, the Longhorns have felt of late like they are on the outside looking in to the College Football Playoff party. While Texas hasn’t looked like an elite team all around, the Longhorns are still alive and in the hunt. Let’s take a look at what the latest Allstate Playoff Predictor via ESPN tells us.

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Before we start, the odds with losses versus Vanderbilt, Georgia, or Texas A&M all carry the assumption that Texas will miss out on the SEC Championship. While not impossible, a Texas with two SEC losses would be highly unlikely to make it to Atlanta for the SEC title.

Stating off, if Texas loses the Vanderbilt game (and just the Vanderbilt game) it would go down as the biggest dent to Texas’ CFP hopes. Texas has played in physically and emotionally demanding games over the past month, and the second bye after the Vanderbilt would be more than helpful for the Longhorns. Diego Pavia and company stand in the way.

CFP odds with a 9-3 finish, with one loss to Vanderbilt:

All of this while the Commodores are two weeks removed from the bye. The Longhorns winning this game would be massive with the first set of CFP rankings coming out next week.

These are all important games to win, but this Georgia game will matter a lot. Now the committee may disagree with the playoff predictor, given that a loss to Vanderbilt or Texas A&M would be at home.

CFP odds with 9-3 finish, with one loss to Georgia

It just feels dirty to type a sentence saying that Texas A&M would be the best regular season game to lose the rest of the way but that’s only when looking at the raw CFP numbers. You will notice the percentages are tied with the rankings of the teams with no nod to where a game is played. Even with the Many Worlds-Interpretation, where there could be any number of worlds, a loss to Texas A&M is good in zero of them.

CFP odds with 9-3 finish, with one loss to Texas A&M

While the play on the field hasn’t inspired much confidence, if the Longhorns get to 10-2 they are possibly headed to the SEC Championship Game.

Of the six one-loss or undefeated teams in the SEC, Texas plays three of them, leaving only Ole Miss to potentially muddy Texas’ SEC title game chances. Texas needs Alabama to go undefeated, with Ole Miss losing another game, then Texas will be guaranteed a slot. Texas and Texas A&M would go head to head for the second slot and Texas would win that tie breaker.

A. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams

The Texas Longhorns currently sit 12th of 24 listed in terms of odds to make the CFP at 41%. Obviously if the Longhorns win out the rest of the regular season schedule, and then win the SEC championship, they will get in as one of the five highest ranked conference champions.

According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Longhorns would have a 94% chance of a first-round bye.

Odds of making the Playoff with an SEC championship win and an 11-2 record

Now what if the Longhorns lose the SEC title? They still have pretty good odds to make the Playoff with a 98% chance. The Longhorns would also have an 18% chance of a first round bye, a 69% chance to be a first-round host, and an 11% chance of being a first-round visitor.

Odds with SEC championship loss, 10-3 record

So to finally answer the question, Texas can afford one more loss. However, that loss being in the SEC championship would be the best case scenario. Outside of that, Texas is leaving their 2025 season hopes in the hands of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee.

If the Longhorns win five straight games, they will be SEC champions and guaranteed a seat at the CFP table.

Just win baby.