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Half Baked Wednesday: Is the 12-Team Playoff Making Coaches Play for the Draw?

by: RT Young09/03/25
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Steve Sarkisian (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

This morning, Eric Nahlin reported on Steve Sarkisian’s demeanor with the team following the Ohio State loss. Sark was affirming and positive with the Longhorns’ locker room, reminding them of his belief that the era of an undefeated national champion is over. And that affirmed something I was already workshopping in the “take” laboratory. Does the expanded playoff incentivize caution in early-season non-conference games?

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I’m not sure this is even a take, more of a hypothesis—a theory, if you will. Welcome to the first, possibly the only, edition of Half Baked Wednesday.

The thought entered my mind during the Texas–Ohio State game that Sarkisian and Ryan Day’s conservative game plans reminded me of when two soccer managers play for a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.

Neither side wants to get embarrassed or concede the three points on the table, so they play good defense, knock the ball around and wait for opportunities to counterattack. Is that José Mourinho’s music? And therein lies the Half Baked Theory: Does the 12-team playoff mix in a layer of caution to these big non-conference games?

Contrast what we saw Saturday with Texas at Alabama in 2023. Texas’ 34-24 victory in Tuscaloosa was ultimately what got the Longhorns into the four-team playoff. The Longhorns had to go for it and Sark/Quinn Ewers aimed Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell directly at the jugular of Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide. A loss would’ve kept Texas home and would have eliminated Alabama had they not upset Georgia in the SEC Championship.

Sark’s strategy with Arch Manning on Saturday was far different. As was Ryan Day’s with Julian Sayin. On the Texas side, you can credit that to it being the first game, Sark relying on the defense, or Manning’s lack of reps, but I do think the realities of the new season play a part. The rhythm of a college football season now looks a whole lot closer to the NFL’s. But the difference is that the NFL Playoffs have a set criteria to get teams into the postseason, while CFB’s format is still largely an invitational.

We’re in an era where a loss—especially a close one to a fellow contender—doesn’t doom your playoff chances. It hardly dings your résumé. To the committee, they’re like draws in soccer. Only the fans carry the scars of a defeat. 

The only thing that could be damaging to CFP dreams is an embarrassing defeat. Hello Alabama and Kalen Deboer. Will anyone remember a 14-7 defeat? But if one of the coaches had “gone for it” and been punished on Saturday? 

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Well, that would be like what Jonah Hill’s character tells Greg the ex–pants pisser in Superbad: “People don’t forget!”

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