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If Past is Prologue Arch Manning Just Has to Keep Working

Eric Nahlinby: Eric Nahlin09/15/25
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Arch Manning (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

Arch Manning’s first-year as a starter is undeniably off to a poor start. There is no sugarcoating that fact. While there have been shades of his passing talent and dual-threat ability, he’s clearly uncomfortable more often than not. It’s to the point where many fans and evens pundits seem to believe this will be his permanent state. That makes little sense.

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Texas fans will remember how much trash rival fans talked when Texas was down for a decade. They mistakenly believed Texas being down was the permanent state, rather than a trough. Texas was never going to be down forever, it simply has too many resources. Similarly, Arch Manning has too much talent. Heritable talent.

People are back to saying he was overrated because of his last name. What sort of memory do sports fans have? It seems to be shorter than the best cornerbacks. Is the thinking Peyton and Eli were always great? That they didn’t have their struggles?

Let’s take a look at a snapshot of the careers of Arch’s very famous uncles.

Here’s Peyton Manning:

Here’s Eli Manning:

Isolate on their third years in college. Now, look at how much experience they had entering that third year. By comparison, look at Arch’s experience entering this season:

Maybe the Mannings know from experience why the number of career pass attempts is an important consideration when it comes to NFL readiness. It matters for college readiness, too.

Notice how their sophomore years were actually better than their junior years (I bet there were cries that they regressed!) Twenty-seven interceptions between them. Finally, notice how they bounced back for very strong senior years.

Let’s look a little deeper.

Towards the end of Peyton’s junior year, Tennessee defeated 2-9 Vanderbilt by the score of 14-7. He was 17-35 for 163 yards. He threw one interception and no touchdowns. That same season, Tennessee lost to 4-7 Memphis, 17-21. The future NFL legend was 23-40 for 296 yards. He had one touchdown and two interceptions. Tennessee went 10-2 that year.

What about Eli? Despite having considerable experience entering his junior season, he opened up with a 17-31 effort against Louisiana-Monroe. He only passed for 192 yards and one pick and one interception.

Check out this three game stretch amidst a five game losing streak. To be fair, this was against pretty good competition but it doesn’t exactly scream eventual two-time Super Bowl MVP.

Look at those yards per attempt…Look at the amount of pass attempts.

Some might counter with, “isn’t Sark a quarterback whisperer and offensive guru?” I would ask, “do you know how much respect the Mannings have for David Cutcliffe, who coached both Peyton and Eli, and add they have that same respect for Sark.”

Nobody knows definitively how things will play out for Arch, but comparisons to Chris Simms and Garrett Gilbert, are comically premature. We might simply be in the “move VY to tight end” stage.

If past is prologue, he just needs to keep doing what his uncles did—improve as he gains experience.

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