IT Roundtable: Texas vs. Florida predictions, keys to the game, players to watch

For the first time since 1940, the No. 9 Texas Longhorns are heading to Gainesville to battle the Florida Gators. The Longhorns are 3-1 and are just now starting Southeastern Conference play. Meanwhile, Florida is 1-3 with a single conference loss to LSU.

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Stakes are high on both sides. So what’s going to happen? The Inside Texas staff looks at the key matchups and the quarterbacks before offering a prediction for what happens in the Swamp.

Florida is on the ropes. Do you expect a motivated Gators squad or one that folds if punched early?

Eric Nahlin – I checked in with some dialed into Florida players and coaches and heard they are motivated. They certainly played hard against Miami. One could say they did because the Canes are a rival but Texas coming to town is a big deal.

Justin Wells – Motivated from the jump. They were still playing hard during last season’s blowout in Austin, and I expect similar.

Ian Boyd – I bet the Gators have one more good fight left in them before they pack it in but I really don’t know. Certainly Texas should prepare to get “backs to the wall” Florida and not “is it over yet?” Florida.

Joe Cook – I think it’s about time for Florida to fold. There is a psychology to take note of when a 1-3 team is being carried and kept in games by its defense. Meanwhile, the offense under the direction of a play-calling head coach has not done much to help the Gators at all. If it looks like the Florida offense is going to guide the Gators to 1-4, I do wonder if that defense starts to lose a little bit of the motivation that it has had so far.

Paul Wadlington – The players seem to like Billy Napier and they rallied last year from Napier’s all but certain firing. It’s a new age though. They could come out with their hair on fire or four starters could announce that they’re redshirting to preserve a year of eligibility an hour before kickoff. I’ve seen zero quit in their D. The O is just a mess, not quitting.

Charlie Williams – They’ll fold like a bad poker hand and we’re holding all the cards.

Evan Vieth – They’ll be motivated. I don’t think the team is against Napier, but I do think the fan base is. The players played hard all of 2024, they’ll continue to play hard in 2025.

RT Young – I think they’ll be motivated coming off of a bye week. Texas has a chance to break them for whoever their next opponent is, but they’ll give the Longhorns all they have.

What does Texas do to challenge DJ Lagway?

Eric Nahlin – Get pressure on him by bringing different numbers while mixing coverages behind it. We should also see some wins for whoever is going up against their right tackle.

Justin Wells – Disguise coverages, collapse the pocket, and force him into rushed, panic decisions.

Ian Boyd – I think the normal blend of zone and man coverage with disguised alignments by Michael Taaffe and the secondary will be very effective in keeping him out of rhythm. Some more zone blitzes would also help and could be very effective.

Joe Cook – Bring him to the ground. Ohio State, trying to protect its young quarterback, didn’t put Julian Sayin in harm’s way all that often. Similar applies to quarterbacks for San Jose State, UTEP, and Sam Houston. Florida understands what the Texas defensive front can do, but it may be more ambitious than the Longhorns’ prior opponents in thinking its front can handle what Texas throws at it. I’m not buying that the blue can block the orange and white. Putting UF back behind schedule will make this game go a certain way.

Paul Wadlington – Let him throw us the ball. Mix up zone coverages, keep eyes on, get him uncomfortable in the pocket. He has shown no facility for punishing an extra man blitzer with a check down yet. So our D could enjoy the best of both worlds – pressure and coverage.

Charlie Williams – Texas can stop the run with five, so that forces Lagway to win through the air. Show pressure, drop eight, muddy his reads, and keep him guessing. LSU proved he struggles when defenses disguise looks. Texas has the personnel to do the same.

Evan Vieth – Some of the blitzes that Pete Kwiatkowski hinted at in the Sam Houston game are going to give that young QB fits.

RT Young – Disguise coverages and get the Gators offense into 3rd and long where he has to make risky throws.

The Gators defense is more than capable, posting good showings against Miami and LSU. How does Texas put points on the board in Gainesville?

Eric Nahlin – I think Carson Beck beat himself more than the Gators defense. Florida’s defense is pretty good, it isn’t great. Opportunity will be there for the pass and the run, especially on the perimeter.

Justin Wells – Great question. If the run game can squeeze a few more yards per carry, it’ll exploit the mismatches, and Arch Manning to Ryan Wingo becomes a household phrase.

Ian Boyd – They need to find the Florida safeties in coverage. Force them to change direction and cover speed in space. It may only take a few big plays from Texas to put the Gators away if the Florida offense can’t wake up.

Joe Cook – Has to be the quarterback run game. We can talk about Quintrevion Wisner‘s status as well as development from Christian Clark, James Simon, and Jerrick Gibson. But Arch Manning needs to become involved because that threat helps to open some holes that so far the Texas O-line isn’t creating on its own.

Paul Wadlington – Arch Manning should have time to throw, unless the OL has an epic breakdown. Florida technically plays zone. But it’s actually often a combo coverage with man outside and zone inside. Run man beaters outside of the hash, settle into open space elsewhere. Should be able to run off the corners and hit the TE, RB, backside WR coming over in “replacement.” Their LBs are talented, but prone to overrun and lack discipline. Attack greedy eyes.

Charlie Williams – Florida has been stingy inside the 20, but Texas can counter by using tight ends and backs in the passing game. Sark’s best chance at points comes from red zone creativity, not settling for field goals

Evan Vieth – Finding ways to unconventionally run the ball. Screen game, QB power and reads, reverses. Gaining high value from low risk plays that emphasize getting the ball in the playmaker’s hands

RT Young – Give Arch a game manager gameplan and script that leans on the defense. I hope Arch looks a little bit like Quinn Ewers on Saturday.

Final score prediction

Eric Nahlin – 27-10, Texas

Justin Wells – 17-13, Texas

Ian Boyd – 30-13, Texas

Joe Cook – 24-14, Texas

Paul Wadlington – 23-16, Texas

Charlie Williams – 19-6, Texas

Evan Vieth – 24-12, Texas

RT Young – 8-6 Texas. Jeff Ontiveros sends the ball over the fence with the bases loaded in the top of the 9th.