Keys to the game: How No. 1 Texas can beat No. 3 Ohio State on the road

Given the offseason started so late, and then we had three coaching searches that had us “covering football” into February, this offseason went by very fast. Or, it could be that I’m older now and with a kid and life just generally flies by. Longer days, shorter years, imo. Whatever it is, breakfast tacos, Gameday, and football is here, and it’s here in a big way—a rematch from last year’s semifinals pitting two of the top programs in the country. 

I agree with Texas’ No. 1 ranking but throw it out the window at 11:00. Nothing matters other than the product they put on the field in a hostile environment. I like UT’s chances but they’ll have to play well in Week 1, no easy feat. 

Here are my keys to the game.

Have the better quarterback

Arch Manning is making only his third career start but that’s a big advantage over Ohio State first-time starter Julian Sayin. We all remember Arch’s first start and that came against ULM. It wasn’t all that pretty, though he made tremendous strides in the following week against Mississippi State. 

I want to clarify something from a previous article. The staff doesn’t expect Arch to be a bus driver, it thinks, paired with a strong defense, Texas can win with him playing a solid game. Manning very well could light it up today or make a handful of big plays that define the game. 

It’s incredibly hard for me to see Sayin shouldering the load against this Texas defense. His nerves are going to be all over the place. 

The Horns should have a big advantage here.

Red Zone efficiency 

I will never call it the Red Area. We’re entering Year 5 of the Sark era and it still sounds weird every time Sark says it. It could very well be his greatest shortcoming. 

The Texas defense versus Sayin on a constricted part of the field should force some field goals. I picked Ohio State to score 13. But, I also picked Texas to score 23. I want to see the Texas offense incorporating Arch’s legs in the RZ before I start fully believing they’ve turned the corner. 

Minimize self-inflicted wounds

Last year I picked Ohio State to win because Texas simply didn’t play a clean enough brand of football. In general we’ve seen way too many pre-snap penalties in the Kyle Flood era. Will that change in the ‘Shoe with so much turnover on the offensive line? 

Texas also needs to protect the ball. Arch did a really good job of this all offseason but games are much different. 

If Texas can play clean on offense and special teams we’ll very likely see the sort of complementary football it takes to win big.

Win the opening script

I was in Tuscaloosa and Ann Arbor and it was clear from the jump the offense was locked in early in both games. I didn’t “know” Texas was going to beat Alabama until it answered a quick Alabama score with a very quick score of its own. In Ann Arbor, it was all she wrote early on. Michigan had no answers. 

On each occasion, and including Alabama at home in 2022, Sark was locked and loaded. He wasn’t just poking and prodding, he was slicing and dicing. We can all feel confident Sark will have some new wrinkles based on the skill talent he has at his disposal. These wrinkles might not be as effective later in the season when there’s more tape on them but that shouldn’t be a problem for today. 

Limit big plays on defense

Ryan Day and Jeremiah Smith have had all offseason to game plan for this rematch after Smith had one reception for three yards. Texas is not going to duplicate that again but they’ll be fine as long as they limit him over the top. The back-breaker last year was the long screen to TreVeyon Henderson.

What are your keys? Scoring more? I’m good with that.