Oklahoma's upcoming offensive transformation

The Big 12 may never be harder to predict than it will be next season.

I whiffed pretty badly in my expectations this year, Baylor put a lot more together on offense than seemed likely and Oklahoma State had a lot of young players emerge to have big seasons. It was also hard to anticipate Lincoln Riley bailing on his team for Hollywood and having an unclear level of focus down the home stretch while dropping two of the last three games.

But next year? There’s an awful lot changing around the league.

Some of the biggest developments are at Oklahoma, the program which was a perennial conference champion under both Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley for two decades.

Riley is gone, a significant chunk of the Oklahoma roster is turning over, their offensive and defensive schemes are changing, and Caleb Williams may or may not be a part of their future.

The future will be very different in Norman, not least of all on offense.

Jeff Lebby’s Veer and Shoot

Way back in 2014, Oklahoma was quietly moving toward more of a “veer and shoot” style of offense. Offensive coordinator Josh Heupel seemed fascinated by the possibilities of the system and with the help of second year offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh built a power run game in Norman with a big line, freshman Samaje Perine. To the run game they attached a ton of RPOs for quarterback Trevor Knight.

Results were a little mixed. They scored 36.4 points per game, Perine ran for 1,713 yards and 21 touchdowns, Trevor Knight averaged just 7.3 ypa and threw 12 interceptions, and the Sooners went 5-4 in the Big 12.

Rather than replacing his brother at defensive coordinator, Bob Stoops replaced Heupel with Lincoln Riley and the rest is history. Heupel rebounded elsewhere with a series of jobs and worked with tight ends coach Joe Jon Finley, fresh off the former Sooner tight end working under Art Briles at Baylor in 2015 as an analyst.

They went all-in on RPOs and ran the Veer and Shoot together at Missouri, then Finley ended up working with Lebby at Ole Miss while Heupel moved on to Tennessee.

The Veer and Shoot is a very different offense from the Lincoln Riley version of the Air Raid. Riley wasn’t a big fan of RPOs and didn’t run many, mixing in a few with Spencer Rattler in 2021 but obviously moving away from them after Caleb Williams took over.

As a reminder, the point of RPOs is to give you answers for running the ball on a nickel front when the defense commits an extra man to the box. You can’t block everyone if you have three receivers spread, so if you want to run the ball you need to account for the extra defender with well-timed play-action passing, real-time RPOs, or quarterback run options.

Riley’s preference was to control the box it with quarterback run options and to throw on play-action with real protection schemes rather than asking the quarterback to make reads after the snap regularly and throw while the offensive line executed run blocks. If you want to use RPOs to protect your run game you have to be all in on teaching your quarterback how to play chess with the defensive coordinator and make good, quick decisions when the bullets are flying.

Riley didn’t have time for all that, this was practice time better spent on drawing up extra plays where he could control more of the variables. Relinquishing control was not something Riley was a big fan of, as multiple Oklahoma media outlets are now eagerly revealing to scorned fans.

Well all that’s changing now. The RPO spread is all about empowering a quick-thinking and quick-moving athlete at quarterback to make decisions live. It’s like running the pick’n’roll with a good lead guard, he’s reading the action and either regularly distributing the ball to the right spots or using the spacing to call his own number and go to the rim depending on his own skill set and the design of the system.

This past season Lebby coached Matt Corral at Ole Miss where he attempted 378 passes for 3,333 yards at 8.8 ypa with 20 touchdowns to four interceptions while adding 145 runs for 597 yards at 4.1 ypc with 11 rushing touchdowns.

It can add up to a heavy workload, that’s 523 total plays where Corral ran or threw and ran the risk of taking hits, 43.6 plays per game. He did get dinged up a little this last season but played through it.

For comparison’s sake, Sam Ehlinger ran or threw on 42 plays per game in 2018 and 39.8 in 2019 and dealt with injuries during both seasons. Jalen Hurts was at 40.9 plays per game in 2019.

Obviously their styles were a little more risky. Ehlinger would hang in the pocket and take a hit after a throw or lower his shoulder and run power on short-yardage and goal line situations. Hurts got a lot of run game calls and would run quarterback power 10x a game down the stretch for the Sooners. Corral was twitchy and tried to avoid hits when he could.

The point is, the system puts a very, very heavy load on the quarterback. He has to make a ton of decisions in every game, take some hits, protect himself, and make plays. Starting with the Texas game, Caleb Williams last season averaged 34.4 plays per game. As a 220 pound athlete who’s most dangerous with the ball in his hands and space to run around in, it’s a good system for unleashing his potential. However he’ll have to master a lot in the RPO game he’s not had to execute before, he’ll need to protect himself effectively, he needs to be interested in doing so.

I’m betting the run schemes change for Oklahoma as well. The RPO spread tends to be more about the inside zone game, which the Sooners haven’t used as much with their fascination with GT counter and then more recent dabbles with mid/stretch zone. Every Lane Kiffin team or hardcore Veer and Shoot team I’ve watched has made excellence with inside zone a key starting point for the entire offense.

Here’s what Oklahoma could potentially trot out as a starting O-line if everyone returns:

• Left tackle: Anton Harrison. 6-foot-5, 317 pounds
• Left guard: Tyrese Robinson. 6-foot-3, 326 pounds.
• Center: Andrew Raym. 6-foot-3, 304 pounds.
• Right guard: Chris Murray. 6-foot-1, 301 pounds.
• Right tackle: Wanya Morris. 6-foot-5, 313 pounds.

It’s a talented group with a fair amount of experience. Everyone slimmed down a little last season and could potentially move back up in weight if inside zone took greater precedence over the stretch zone game. One thing to watch out for is whether they start to pack on weight again and make inside zone the focus of their practices for the next year.

Fitting the pieces together in 2022

Question number one is Caleb Williams.

Does he want to stick in Norman, work all offseason in the RPO game, and then carry the whole offense on his shoulders in 2022 Russell Westbrook-style?

If not, the Sooners could presumably pursue other options. Dillon Gabriel transferred out of UCF and would presumably be interested in working with Lebby, who served under Heupel as a quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator at UCF and coached Gabriel. He probably wouldn’t want to transfer in to Norman if Williams was there though, he’s going somewhere to start, and the Sooners wouldn’t want to push out Williams if he was committed to staying.

In the 2022 class the Sooners were able to make a move and add Nick Evers late in the process. Evers ran an up-tempo, RPO offense at Flower Mound (DFW) last season. He attempted 327 passes for 2,366 yards at 7.2 ypa with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions and added 118 carries for 697 yards at 5.9 ypc with 10 rushing touchdowns.

He has a strong arm and is pretty athletic at 6-foot-3, 187 pounds. As both a processor of defense and a regular part of the run game he is not ready for the college game. I took in his battle with rival Marcus high school and he was routinely late on a few reads and then had to leave the game early when he tried to bounce a quarterback draw outside and still took a big, high shot to the back which sent his back-up in for the majority of the game.

Evers will be an early enrollee but he’ll need some real time on the practice field and in the weight room to be ready to maximize and have OU in position to contend for Big 12 Championships.

There are other portal quarterbacks who are available or come could available. Adrian Martinez is no stranger to the spread-option game and could be an addition, or perhaps the addition of Quinn Ewers to the Texas locker room would persuade Sooner legacy Casey Thompson to come home. None of those guys are coming if Williams sticks though, which puts the Sooners in an awkward situation filling out their roster.

Next is the aforementioned offensive line. They have a fair amount of potential with Bedenbaugh returning, who already knows the current group well and likely has an existing plan on how to get them to a higher level of play in 2022. There’s always the transfer portal also, presumably Lincoln Riley wasn’t the only man in Norman who understood how to summon the portal to perform necromancery and rejuvenate a roster.

Skill weapons are the other piece to this puzzle.

Here were the top targets for Oklahoma last year:

• Jadon Haselwood. 39 catches. Gone (portal)
• Mario Williams. 33 catches. Still present
• Mike Woods. 32 catches. Still present
• Marvin Mims. 30 catches. Still present
• Jeremiah Hall. 30 catches. Gone (NFL)

The Sooners need to make sure Williams and Mims stick around, they’re also losing Theo Wease and Austin Stogner to the portal and returning tight end Brayden Willis (big winner in all of this) and stalwart slot Drake Stoops (duh).

As of now, the likeliest lineup for next year would feature Williams, Woods, Mims, and Willis in 11 personnel moving around in different formations with Stoops subbing in off the bench.

If the Sooners can keep Williams around, get him up to speed in the RPO game, and keep most of the names above (Mims is the big one) they’ll have a chance to put together a dangerous offense.

Here are Lebby’s last three quarterbacks’ year one performances under his coaching:

• McKinzie Milton (2018, UCF): 289 passes for 2,663 yards at 9.2 ypa and 25 touchdowns to six interceptions. 79 carries for 307 rushing yards at 3.9 ypc with nine rushing touchdowns.
• Dillon Gabriel (2019, UCF): 398 passes for 3,653 yards at 9.2 ypa and 29 touchdowns to seven interceptions. 71 carries for 78 rushing yards at 1.1 ypc with four rushing touchdowns.
• Matt Corral (2020, Ole Miss): 326 passes for 3,337 yards at 10.2 ypa and 29 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. 112 carries for 506 rushing yards at 4.5 ypc with four rushing touchdowns.

Obvious positives for the Sooners include the fact he’s had a guy running his system for the first time in three of the last four years and all of them had good seasons. They still have weapons on campus and Williams is an obvious force multiplier, even if the system is simplified to bubble screens, quarterback run options, and single-read play-action shots.

Concerns for Oklahoma in the future

One obvious question for Oklahoma fans to be asking right now is, “will this new offense be better or worse than the Riley system?”

The answer is “almost certainly worse, but still very good.”

The Veer and Shoot is ultimately about spread-isolation football. Some examples over the years:

Lure in defenders, take your shots down field on 1-on-1. pic.twitter.com/jNYWlVuXmG

— Asst to the Minister of Culture (@Ian_A_Boyd) December 13, 2021

Same story at Ole Miss but with more motion, some pro-style formations mixed in, and more free-wheeling by Matt Corral.

For Oklahoma it’d be simple enough to just spread the field with wide splits and run power down opponents’ throats while taking their shots when defenses snuck safeties into the box (in necessarily obvious fashion because of the splits).

The problems you run into with this style include the following:

What if the defense dictates where the ball goes? You can spread them out to create space for a player but if they really want the ball to go elsewhere they can give you clear reads to make you send the ball elsewhere.

Post-snap chaos. Great defenses, especially but not limited to the ones with flyover schemes, will muddy the reads and make the quarterback routinely deal with post-snap chaos.

Red zone woes. You can’t create run/pass conflict very easily in the red zone, there’s not enough space. You have to be able to power the ball in or beat man coverage. This is true for everyone but sometimes the RPO spread teams really run into trouble because they’re used to working at advantage.

Predictability and limited appeal. Wide splits and RPOs can limit the concepts an offense can run, although Ole Miss with Lane Kiffin or Texas with Steve Sarkisian have managed to mix a lot in. If an offense follows the strict Briles plan, you run the risk of producing system players and struggling to recruit if you develop that reputation. Anything you add to avoid that moniker then has to be fitted into the existing system.

Tempo vs defense. Brent Venables is used to working with up-tempo offenses more concerned about scoring points than playing complementary football. But then again, does that mean he likes it? He arguably lost his place in Oklahoma earlier because up-tempo schemes made him look bad. Will he try to tamper down his offense or does he have a bigger, head coaching perspective?

Is Jeff Lebby ready to run an offense without oversight? Is he an Art Briles copycat who can implement the system on behalf of someone else or is he a man capable of innovation, adaptation, and managing a staff in his own right without a Lane Kiffin supervising the efforts?

Very interesting offseason ahead for the Oklahoma offense.

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