Peering through the Hubble: Week 2 Big 12 previews

We have 4.5 games of real consequence in the Big 12 this weekend. Much of the league has scheduled the little sisters of the poor, hosting some directional schools for a tune-up before the Week 3 slate of Nebraska at Oklahoma, Virginia Tech at West Virginia, Oklahoma State at Boise State, and the Baylor at Kansas “this is why changes are coming” Big 12 conference opener.

“How do you only have a half game?” you may be asking? Well, Kansas is playing a real opponent this weekend when they take on Coastal Carolina Friday night but this is almost a “little sister of the poor” matchup for the Chanticleers. The Jayhawks are getting 22.5 points and the expectation is clearly for Coastal to give them a whooping.

Our other four games are a little more interesting, so let’s dive into some of the space force battles which should play into the contests.

Tulsa at Oklahoma State (-13)

This was a fiercely contested game last season. Spencer Sanders went down with injury and Shane Illingworth went in and was asked to bail them out of trouble, which he did by throwing a few jump balls to Tylan Wallace. This was also the game where we saw how precarious Oklahoma State’s situation on the offensive line was, they shuffled around pieces during the game before landing on walk-on Jake Springfield at left tackle. The Cowboys ultimately won with defense, which would be the theme of their season.

Circumstances are different this year. Tulsa followed this strong showing up by going to the AAC Championship game and giving the Cincinnati Bearcats all they could handle. Then they lost linebacker Zaven Collins, the Bednarik trophy winner, in the first round. They also lost their cornerbacks, quarterback, it’s a very different team.

Here’s another wrinkle, Mike Gundy has said he expects Sanders back but he has to get through “strenuous” protocols. It rather sounds like this wasn’t contact tracing but actual COVID infection which held Sanders back. How sick did he get? Will have have to get his wind back or was he largely asymptomatic? Meanwhile Logan Carter is still out so whether or not Sanders is a full go has major implications for the run game.

The main story for me, even if it wasn’t the main object of this column, is the Cowboy space force. Edge is now manned by Brock Martin, a strong player but one who has 2.5 career sacks despite playing regularly each of the last two seasons. Tulsa head coach Phil Montgomery is going to bring the veer and shoot vertical passing against the OSU cornerbacks, how will they scheme it and cover it? Can any of OSU’s receivers blow this game open? How will tackles Taylor Miterko, Jake Springfield, and Caleb Etienne handle the Tulsa pass-rush?

Tulsa has Oklahoma transfer Jon-Michael Terry on the edge, so this game should be somewhat illustrative of how the OSU tackles may fare in Big 12 play.

Cal at TCU (-11.5)

I have high hopes this game will devolve into “Cheez-It Bowl 2: Turnover Boogaloo” but the line suggests a different expectation.

Here’s the thing, Cal is coached by Justin Wilcox, who is a brilliant defensive coordinator who took the Bears from playing terrible defense under Sonny Dykes to getting regular stops nearly immediately upon arrival.

In 2016 the Bears were giving up 42.6 points per game. Yes. In 2017, year one under Wilcox, the number dropped to 28.4. Then in 2018 to 20.4, then to 21.9 and finally 26.5 last year in a season where you should probably assume the Bears were barely able to function as a football program.

The interesting test in this game will be in how TCU’s tackles and overall pass protection fares against Cal’s 2-4-5 defense and their “creeper” or “replacement” blitzes. The Bears are all in on this style of defense, which involves bringing four-man zone blitzes in which potentially any of 10 defenders on the field could be one of the four pass-rushers (anyone but the far corner, basically). Their outside linebackers Kuony Deng and Cameron Goode are a good test for the Frogs, but the better test will be their interior D-linemen and inside linebackers on the replacement pressures.

Will TCU pick them up? How will Max Duggan fare sussing these out?

The Cal offense is not very good so unless TCU lays an egg on defense or turns it over frequently on offense, Gary Patterson should pick up another win. The point of interest here is much more in how the TCU offense looks against a real opponent. If they torch the Bear defense, look out for TCU this season.

Iowa at Iowa State (-4.5)

I’ve been amused by how angry the college football commentariat is about Iowa State doing a “white out” in which they wear white helmets and black uniforms against their rivals, the Iowa Hawkeyes. This is coming as opposed to wearing their traditional red and yellow and it’s happening because Matt Campbell likes black a lot more and when Campbell asks Iowa State for something he’s probably going to get it.

I have no deep attachment to the Cy-Hawk battle and think Campbell’s various black alternate uniforms are way cooler than their normal jerseys, which look like knock-off USC Trojan gear. Sorry Iowa State, you know it’s true though which is probably why everyone else is offering an unsolicited defense of your traditional colors.

The better critique here is that Campbell has never beaten Iowa. If Iowa State has any hope whatsoever of a playoff run or huge season, they really need to finally get this monkey off their backs.

If you’re not familiar with Iowa, they are the exact same team every season. On offense they run outside zone, often from under center, they always have really good centers and tight ends, and when the quarterback is experienced they can be pretty good. On defense they finally gave in to modern football and converted from a 4-3 to a 4-2-5. They play Cover 6 on maybe 50% of their snaps (Cover 2 in the boundary, Cover 4 to the field) and they consistently have good D-line play, great linebackers, heady safeties, and they also surprise at cornerback as well. Remember Julius Brents is set to star for K-State this year as their top cornerback and he transferred in from Iowa because he wasn’t seeing the field enough for his liking.

Campbell has nearly had them a few times though. In 2019 the Cyclones had some disastrous mistakes on special teams, in 2020 the game was cancelled due to COVID, so they are due for a win. How well his receiver can get open against the Hawkeye coverage is going to be interesting to watch, as well as how well his tackles hold up against the country-strong defensive ends for Iowa.

On the bright side is Iowa’s apparent lack of game-changing speed to get after the Cyclone cornerbacks. Their top receiver is Sam LaPorta (their next NFL tight end) and ISU can try and check him with Mike Rose and some safety brackets. NFL scouts will be watching that battle and you might as well do likewise. Another very Cy-Hawkish battle is the one between Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum (6-foot-3, 290 pounds) and whoever plays nose tackle for Iowa State.

Texas (-7) at Arkansas

I’ve got a full preview of this one up on the main page.