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SEC Leaders In Passing/Receiving/Rushing Yards Predictions

by: Paul Wadlington08/05/25
Ryan Wingo
Ryan Wingo (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

Looking for value and insights with markets.

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Current odds, regular season only, a book not on our shores.

PASSING

SEC Passing Yard Leader  
Garrett Nussmeier (LSU)-150
Blake Shapen (Mississippi State)+400 
Arch Manning (Texas)+700 
Ty Simpson (Alabama)+900 
DJ Lagway (Florida)+1200 
Gunner Stockton (Georgia)+2000 
Austin Simmons (Mississippi)+2200 
Taylen Green (Arkansas)+2200 
Jackson Arnold (Auburn)+2800 
LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina)+2800 
Beau Pribula (Missouri)+4000 
John Mateer (Oklahoma)+5000 
Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt)+6600 
Marcel Reed (Texas A&M)+6600 
Joey Aguilar (Tennessee)+8000 
Zach Calzada (Kentucky)+10000 

Will Sark let Arch throw for 400 yards against Sam Houston, UTEP and San Jose State? Not really his modus operandi. Manning could lead the league, but he can’t miss a game and must be extremely efficient. We also play slow. That limits attempts.

The best value bet here is Austin Simmons.

Lagway is an obvious trap. Even if healthy, Florida wants him throwing it 24-30 times a game.

Blake Shapen has never played a complete season of football and it’s still Mississippi State. Gunner Stockton, oh no. Arnold sounds insane, but if the Auburn O hits, he’s throwing for 3200+ yards. Ty Simpson is an interesting and very sneaky play.

There are sites out there that allow you to bet on TEAM passing totals. The reason you could prefer that is obvious.

You’re too dumb to bet if you attack the bottom of the list.

RECEIVING

SEC Receiving Yard Leader  
Ryan Williams (Alabama)+650
Jordan Mosley (Mississippi State)+750
Barion Brown (LSU)+800 
Raylen Sharpe (Arkansas)+950
Aaron Anderson (LSU)+1000 
Cam Coleman (Auburn)+1200 
Eugene Wilson III (Florida)+1200 
Germie Bernard (Alabama)+1200 
Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt)+1400 
Kevin Coleman Jr (Missouri)+1600 
Nyck Harbor (South Carolina)+1600 
Ryan Wingo (Texas)+1600 
Deion Burks (Oklahoma)+1800 
Ja’Mori Maclin (Kentucky)+2000 
Zachariah Branch (Georgia)+2200 
Eric Singleton Jr (Auburn)+2500 
Jack Endries (Texas)+2500 
Kevin Concepcion (Texas A&M)+2500 
Chris Brazzell Jr (Tennessee)+3300 
De’Zhaun Stribling (Mississippi)+3300 
Isaiah Sategna (Oklahoma)+4000 
Noah Thomas (Georgia)+4000 
Harrison Wallace III (Mississippi)+5000

So, if it’s not apparent yet, this is a market set for public bettors. Traps abound.

Ryan Williams is a clear #1, DeBoer can scheme up touches, and those are a little better odds that I would have guessed.

The wrong LSU guy is favored. Barion Brown isn’t a volume guy and the Tigers have layers of receiving options. Ole Miss slot Cayden Lee should be in the Top 3. Unlisted! Amazing. They did that on purpose. No DeAndre Moore either.

Texas will have a distributed passing attack. That’s a good thing for us, but a bad thing for having a single guy with 110 yards per game. Wingo could happen, but he needs to understand that soda isn’t a hydrating tool.

No to any tight end. A great tight end regular season would be 600 yards.

Eric Singleton and Cam Coleman will split the load, though either can be a 1,000 yard guy.

RUSHING

SEC Rushing Yard Leader  
Caden Durham (LSU)+750
Damari Alston (Auburn)+900 
Jam Miller (Alabama)+900 
CJ Baxter (Texas)+1000 
Jadan Baugh (Florida)+1000 
Rahsul Faison (South Carolina)+1000 
Ahmad Hardy (Missouri)+1200 
Le’Veon Moss (Texas A&M)+1200 
Quintrevion Wisner (Texas)+1200 
Davon Booth (Mississippi State)+1400 
Ja’Kobi Jackson (Florida)+1600 
LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina)+1600 
Mike Washington (Arkansas)+1600 
Sedrick Alexander (Vanderbilt)+1600 
Dante Dowdell (Kentucky)+2000 
Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt)+2000 
John Mateer (Oklahoma)+2200 
Nate Frazier (Georgia)+2200 
Jaydn Ott (Oklahoma)+2500 
DeSean Bishop (Tennessee)+3300 
Damien Taylor (Mississippi)+5000 
Arch Manning (Texas)+7500 

If SEC returning leading rusher Tre Wisner listed 9th shocks you, you need to do some reading. CJ Baxter is a trap.

Generally speaking, I’m looking for RB talent, volume, and a supportive ecosystem. That ecosystem generally comes in two forms – great threats outside that create an honest box or a mobile QB who can open up the entire field and create backside constraint.

I don’t trust the first four favorites, though LSU’s Durham does have the clearest path to being a 20 carry a week guy. We think their OL can run block now? I honestly don’t know. They will get honest boxes. Le’Veon Moss is a clear #1 RB on a team that will run the ball very effectively. Surprised to see Moss at #8.

Jadan Baugh is the best RB in the league and Florida likes to run the rock, but Napier’s RB rotation is his primary nemesis. Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy will face a forgiving schedule and get plenty of opportunities.

OU’s Jaydyn Ott is compelling at those long shot odds. Clear #1 RB, Mateer will constrain the backside, Arbuckle does a good job spreading the field. The schedule is not permissive though. He’s going to have some 45 yard weeks that he will need to overcome with 180+ against Illinois State and Temple.

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Some of the random QB names likes Pavia, Manning, Mateer are there in hopes of drawing dumb money. Hint: sacks go into college QB rushing yardage totals.

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