Small sample sizes and the playcalling head coach conundrum

No talking point has gotten more buzz this week than Steve Sarkisian’s stance on play-calling.

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When asked on Monday if he had ever thought about relinquishing his duties, like many college coaches have in the past, he shook his head and explained why not.

“That’s why I got hired. I was a really good offensive coordinator,” Sarkisian said. “I believe in what we’re able to do; every year we have to continually evolve.”

As is expected from college football discourse, this sparked an onslaught of takes and questions from neutral observers and diehard fans alike.

It got way too out of hand.

It seems like a lot of people blindly believe Sarkisian must give up play-calling duties because of historical precedent. Let’s dive into it.

Here’s a take you’ve probably heard: No head coach has won a national title calling plays in the College Football Playoff era.

Technically, this is correct. But there’s much more nuance to the idea than just “coaches haven’t done it, so Sark won’t be able to.”

Only seven coaches have won a championship in the Playoff era.

One is the GOAT of the sport.
Another is a top-three coach of this century who had already won before that.
Another was a complete one-and-done with arguably the best roster ever assembled.

Saban, Meyer, and Orgeron are their own cases of excellence or fluke that don’t really matter.

That leaves Dabo Swinney, Kirby Smart, Ryan Day, and Jim Harbaugh. Swinney, Harbaugh, and Meyer technically were all offensive guys, but they had never been offensive coordinators in their careers. They were much more head coaches than offensive gurus. That’s why they weren’t calling their own plays. Smart, Saban and Ed O were all defensive-focused. That’s an even split.

That leaves Day, who is a terrible example that people are trying to push. Day was OSU’s OC before taking over full-time. He called plays for five seasons before giving up duties to Chip Kelly in 2024. His offenses ranked 3rd, 11th, 1st, 2nd, and 45th in scoring. That puts him in a similar position to Sarkisian: great offenses as a head coach, but a clear down year.

Here’s the thing, though. Day was clearly involved in the play-calling after the Michigan loss, one of Ohio State’s worst offensive performances in recent memory. If not for the expanded playoff, 2024 would’ve gone down as Ohio State’s worst year under Day, and he would’ve received a ton of flak for the hiring of Kelly.

Instead, Day took a more hands-on approach to the play-calling (he could be seen with the playsheet on the sideline of the NCG), and the season turned around.

Day was stubborn about giving up play-calling, and it didn’t really work when he inevitably did.

The problem with the argument surrounding play-calling coaches is sample size.

Sarkisian is one of only four notable head coaches currently known for being an offensive play-caller. Day, and then the only other two are Lincoln Riley and Lane Kiffin, who is ascending the college football totem pole.

If your take is you shouldn’t hire a coach who wants to call his own plays, you’re simply stupid. Sarkisian is the third-most accomplished current coach over the last three seasons: two semifinal appearances, a Big 12 championship, and an SEC championship appearance. He was clearly the correct hire at Texas.

The Situation Sarkisian Is In

Let’s also talk about the situation at hand. Sarkisian had to rebuild his program first and foremost—something Day never had to do. So that took two seasons. Then, he had the nation’s 15th-best scoring offense, and 29th in 2024, with serious injuries to his RB and WR rooms. Most people would’ve scoffed at the idea of taking away the play-caller of that team’s responsibilities.

The idea is only coming up now that, halfway through the year, Texas is around the 80th-best offense. The thing is, it’s not OC Sarkisian’s fault.

It’s head coach and CEO Sarkisian’s fault. Imagine this Texas team with two starting portal offensive linemen and another impact RB—one with a little more juice in the run game. That team might be undefeated at this point. Hypotheticals are dumb, but the downfall of this team is much more about personnel than play-calling.

Secondly, who is he going to give play-calling to at this point? Kyle Flood, who everyone hates? AJ Milwee, who everyone calls useless? Neal Brown, who got fired because he was calling plays?

There’s no reason he should give up play-calling in the middle of the season, but he is expected to do better.

Sample Size

The issue with play-calling head coaches comes down to sample size. Not many head coaches get hired after being an OC. Think about the top programs—the ones really competing for a national championship over the last 10 years—and their head coaches.

OSU: hired one
Notre Dame: two defensive guys
Alabama: Saban and DeBoer, who has a play-caller
Michigan: non–play-calling offensive guys
Oklahoma and USC: Lincoln Riley (31–16 at USC, yet you never hear this convo with him…), Helton (who delegated almost immediately), and Venables
Georgia: defensive guy
LSU: Miles was an offensive guy, but not a play-caller. The other two were defensive guys.

Only two of 14 major head coaching hires joined their team with the expectation of calling plays in the college football playoff era. One of them won the whole thing last year.

People like Sarkisian are rare to find. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad coach to have, though. Most programs want to hire someone who was a head coach somewhere else beforehand. Texas didn’t do that, and it’s paid off. He’s clearly an awesome fit at Texas, which is struggling because of poor management decisions. Did his calling plays cloud his judgment on his offensive line and RBs? I really doubt it. Having a head coach who is not only fantastic at the CEO portion of the job, as well as the play-calling portion, is really valuable.

There’s also the topic of who you would get to call plays.

If Mike McDaniel, who has a good relationship with Sark, wants to turn down NFL OC jobs and come work for Texas, be my guest. But a lot of the other options are very volatile.

You’re not getting Grubb, Stein, Denbrock, or Riley. Andy Kotelnicki’s stock has fallen even if he did leave PSU. Tech isn’t letting Leftwich go. I doubt it would be someone like Linehan or Shurmur despite NFL ties. Bush Hamden at Kentucky? Jake Spavital at Baylor?

The fit has to be correct. You’d expect Sarkisian to either go poaching from the ACC/Big 12 level, look for someone he’s previously worked with, or go after an experienced NFL play-caller looking for a new home. All of those options have their downsides.

Sarkisian clearly isn’t failing at the majority of his obligations as a head coach. He’s had on-field success, recruits extremely well, and is generally liked in the Austin community. This debate cares way too much about the championship-or-bust mentality and the idea that if it hasn’t happened before, it can’t happen.

It’s tiring, and it has little importance until the season is over.

Should Sarkisian think about bringing in a fresh mind and some new faces on the offensive side? No doubt.

Should that be a true offensive coordinator to call plays? Maybe.

Should he give up duties midseason? Absolutely not.